November 2013 Observations & Discussions

[Sundog]

One would think the low precip pattern will reverse at some point in the next several months given the very +SSTA off the Atlantic coast. Once the mean jet position moves into our region for DJF we'll see more baroclinic / thermal gradient induced waves of storminess.

We just need to make sure we have a favorable jet orientation so most of those don't go straight out to sea.

[bluewave]

Ok thanks, no shot at all for reaching that!

 

But if NYC can reach 32, it would be the earliest freeze since 1988 and two days ahead of last year.

[uncle W]

One would think the low precip pattern will reverse at some point in the next several months given the very +SSTA off the Atlantic coast. Once the mean jet position moves into our region for DJF we'll see more baroclinic / thermal gradient induced waves of storminess.

I posted a map of the eight driest Falls since 1900 and the winter precipitation that followed...

[bluewave]

JFK has a shot at record low tomorrow morning.

 

 

11/4 34 in 2006 34 in 1966 35 in 1989+

[SnoSki14]

A nice fall chill in the air and plenty of clouds, upper 40s for most right now.

It'll be interesting to see how low temps go tonight and will some records or earlier freezes be attained.

[Isotherm]

But if NYC can reach 32, it would be the earliest freeze since 1988 and two days ahead of last year.

 

 

Wow, that would be quite impressive then. I'm thinking they bottom out around 34, but let's hope for 32.

[Isotherm]

I posted a map of the eight driest Falls since 1900 and the winter precipitation that followed...

 

 

Good stuff Unc, that seems to follow the notion that our dry regimes reverse usually within 6 months or so.

[bluewave]

Wow, that would be quite impressive then. I'm thinking they bottom out around 34, but let's hope for 32.

 

Here's Uncle's full list form the October thread:

 

 

First and last freeze dates in Central Park...

season....first.freeze....last.freeze..

1876-77.......10/15.......4/08

1877-78.......11/07.......3/26

1878-79.......11/05.......4/06

1879-80.......10/25.......4/12

1880-81.......11/18.......4/07

1881-82.......11/22.......4/12

1882-83.......11/03.......4/03

1883-84.......11/12.......4/06

1884-85.......11/19.......4/14

1885-86.......11/01.......4/04

1886-87.......11/07.......4/19

1887-88.......10/30.......4/25

1888-89.......11/17.......3/31

1889-90.......10/24.......4/19

1890-91.......11/21.......5/06

1891-92.......11/04.......4/25

1892-93.......11/11.......3/30

1893-94.......11/15.......4/09

1894-95.......11/07.......4/05

1895-96.......11/12.......4/08

1896-97.......11/23.......4/20

1897-98.......11/18.......4/07

1898-99.......11/24.......4/06

1899-00.......11/12.......4/11

1900-01.......11/15.......3/31

1901-02.......11/10.......3/20

1902-03.......12/05.......4/05

1903-04.......11/07.......4/20

1904-05.......10/31.......3/15

1905-06.......11/14.......4/01

1906-07.......11/29.......4/03

1907-08.......12/03.......4/05

1908-09.......11/04.......4/11

1909-10.......11/30.......3/18

1910-11.......11/20.......4/03

1911-12.......11/03.......4/04

1912-13.......11/03.......3/28

1913-14.......11/11.......4/13

1914-15.......11/10.......4/04

1915-16.......11/18.......4/09

1916-17.......11/15.......4/10

1917-18.......10/31.......4/12

1918-19.......11/24.......4/26

1919-20.......11/14.......4/11

1920-21.......11/12.......4/11

1921-22.......11/06.......4/21

1922-23.......11/21.......4/14

1923-24.......11/09.......4/03

1924-25.......11/16.......4/21

1925-26.......10/29.......4/20

1926-27.......11/04.......3/28

1927-28.......11/07.......4/16

1928-29.......10/30.......3/18

1929-30.......11/22.......4/24

1930-31.......11/05.......3/14

1931-32.......11/07.......4/13

1932-33.......11/20.......3/25

1933-34.......10/26.......3/29

1934-35.......11/14.......4/16

1935-36.......11/23.......4/08

1936-37.......10/26.......3/31

1937-38.......11/21.......4/07

1938-39.......11/24.......4/13

1939-40.......11/13.......4/15

1940-41.......10/19.......3/31

1941-42.......11/25.......2/28

1942-43.......11/13.......4/16

1943-44.......11/15.......4/06

1944-45.......11/23.......3/11

1945-46.......11/21.......3/12

1946-47.......11/23.......3/31

1947-48.......11/19.......4/04

1948-49.......12/11.......3/20

1949-50.......11/22.......4/14

1950-51.......11/16.......3/27

1951-52.......11/03.......3/17

1952-53.......11/29.......3/11

1953-54.......11/06.......4/04

1954-55.......11/10.......3/29

1955-56.......11/19.......3/28

1956-57.......11/10.......3/25

1957-58.......11/11.......4/09

1958-59.......11/28.......3/29

1959-60.......11/17.......3/27

1960-61.......11/07.......3/21

1961-62.......11/10.......3/09

1962-63.......11/07.......3/23

1963-64.......12/01.......4/05

1964-65.......11/21.......4/01

1965-66.......10/29.......3/29

1966-67.......11/04.......4/12

1967-68.......11/08.......4/06

1968-69.......11/21.......4/01

1969-70.......10/23.......4/11

1970-71.......11/23.......3/27

1971-72.......11/08.......4/09

1972-73.......10/20.......3/21

1973-74.......11/10.......4/10

1974-75.......10/19.......4/10

1975-76.......10/31.......4/12

1976-77.......10/27.......4/10

1977-78.......11/14.......4/03

1978-79.......11/25.......4/08

1979-80.......11/30.......4/17

1980-81.......11/16.......3/21

1981-82.......11/25.......4/08

1982-83.......11/13.......3/30

1983-84.......11/13.......3/18

1984-85.......11/19.......4/10

1985-86.......12/02.......3/22

1986-87.......11/13.......4/01

1987-88.......11/11.......3/23

1988-89.......10/31.......3/22

1989-90.......11/18.......3/28

1990-91.......11/09.......4/13

1991-92.......11/26.......4/13

1992-93.......11/08.......3/20

1993-94.......11/21.......3/19

1994-95.......11/23.......4/06

1995-96.......11/09.......3/29

1996-97.......11/12.......4/10

1997-98.......11/13.......3/23

1998-99.......12/22.......3/16

1999-00.......11/30.......4/09

2000-01.......11/20.......3/28

2001-02.......12/16.......4/07

2002-03.......11/27.......4/08

2003-04.......11/09.......4/06

2004-05.......11/09.......3/16

2005-06.......11/18.......3/22

2006-07.......12/04.......4/09

2007-08.......11/11.......3/30

2008-09.......11/18.......3/24

2009-10.......12/07.......3/27

2010-11.......12/04.......3/29

2011-12.......12/10.......3/27

2012-13.......11/06.......3/23

NYC's latest 1st 32 day since 1876...

1998...12/22

2001...12/16

1948...12/11

2011...12/10

2009...12/07

1902...12/05

2010...12/04

2006...12/04

1907...12/03

1985...12/02

1963...12/01

[NEG NAO]

that map Unc posted shows there were quite a few Miller A's those winters going by the stripe of above average precip from the gulf up the coast

[Cfa]

No freezes before late November, please. I want our average first freeze to be pushed into December, we're almost there.

[forkyfork]

another dry lackluster fropa this week

[SnoSki14]

another dry lackluster fropa this week

I think we will eventually reverse in a big way but not sure when, droughts are incredibly rare around here, at least anything more than 6 months or so.

[Guest Pamela]

No freezes before late November, please. I want our average first freeze to be pushed into December, we're almost there.

 

The average freeze is in October for the vast majority of this geographic area.  Since there is very little agriculture engaged in in the artificially modified UHI climate, does it even make much difference how long the growing season is there?

[Guest Pamela]

I think we will eventually reverse in a big way but not sure when, droughts are incredibly rare around here, at least anything more than 6 months or so.

 

There have been droughts in this area in the past; but, like so many, your frame of reference is less than the length of your lifetime...probably only the period in which you have had a casual interest in weather....

[bluewave]

It looks like we entered a multi-year dry pattern here after the late summer into fall 2011 deluge.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

Think low will be 36

 

I think Central Park should at least make it to 33 with a legitimate shot at 32.

JFK should at least tie the 34 record and possibly break it at 33.

[Cfa]

The average freeze is in October for the vast majority of this geographic area. Since there is very little agriculture engaged in in the artificially modified UHI climate, does it even make much difference how long the growing season is there?

Extending the average growing season by about a week wouldn't make a difference, whether agriculture was popular or not. The average first freeze at KLGA, KNYC, and KJFK would just be in early December, as opposed to late November.

Having an average high of 40 in January, instead of 39, wouldn't make a difference either. 40 just looks better than 39.

[SnoSki14]

There have been droughts in this area in the past; but, like so many, your frame of reference is less than the length of your lifetime...probably only the period in which you have had a casual interest in weather....

 

Thank you for the snide comment, I'm sure it makes you feel superior like you know everything about weather and climate. And I love the weather and am a huge weather and climate enthusiast since I could understand the water cycle and why we see freezing precipitation instead of rain at 32F and lower, so please refrain from prejudging people. 

 

There's a lot I don't know like others on here, but love to learn and understand more about climate and weather. And I never said there have never been any droughts around here, I just said they are not as common. 

[MJO812]

Freeze warning for my area

[Stormlover74]

Already down to 41

[TWCCraig]

IDK, I just don't see hitting 32 tonight here. Probably hit 32.2 or something. Getting below freezing with a strong north wind off a 60 degree body of water isn't an easy task.

[nzucker]

Central Park was at 45/26 as of the 5pm update; that low dewpoint makes me confident they'll get to at least 34F, if not have a freeze. Most of the area stations are reporting due north winds with gusts as high as 20mph, and that's a great wind direction for CAA in Central Park as there's much less downslope with due north winds as opposed to NW or WNW. Areas on Long Island might not get as cold with the influence of the Sound, but this is a good chance for KNYC to record an early freeze.

 

Central Park is certainly due for some earlier freezes, as well. Throughout most of the station's records, it was typical to have a freeze by mid-November, but since the 1990s so many years haven't recorded a freeze until December, including the ridiculous 12/22 freeze in 1998. Winter 01-02 (if it can be called a winter) didn't see its first freeze until 12/16. That's pretty remarkable, considering averages by mid-December are around 45/32 so a normal night is a freeze by that point. 

[pazzo83]

Central Park was at 45/26 as of the 5pm update; that low dewpoint makes me confident they'll get to at least 34F, if not have a freeze. Most of the area stations are reporting due north winds with gusts as high as 20mph, and that's a great wind direction for CAA in Central Park as there's much less downslope with due north winds as opposed to NW or WNW. Areas on Long Island might not get as cold with the influence of the Sound, but this is a good chance for KNYC to record an early freeze.

 

Central Park is certainly due for some earlier freezes, as well. Throughout most of the station's records, it was typical to have a freeze by mid-November, but since the 1990s so many years haven't recorded a freeze until December, including the ridiculous 12/22 freeze in 1998. Winter 01-02 (if it can be called a winter) didn't see its first freeze until 12/16. That's pretty remarkable, considering averages by mid-December are around 45/32 so a normal night is a freeze by that point. 

 

Usually it has to be below 40 by 5pm for us to really hit 32.  Park is still at 43 at this hour (6pm).  If we are 33-34 by midnight, then I could see a freeze.  Otherwise, probably mid 30s.

[Isotherm]

Usually it has to be below 40 by 5pm for us to really hit 32.  Park is still at 43 at this hour (6pm).  If we are 33-34 by midnight, then I could see a freeze.  Otherwise, probably mid 30s.

 

 

 

Don't follow your logic there. NYC's temps would fall more than a degree or two after midnight, more like four to six degrees.

[Kaner587]

Pazzo I get where you're coming from but this is totally situationally depending. If you have CAA you'd expect a completely different scenario then if its a windless clear night w/radiational cooling. In the second scenario I'd probably agree. I think tn is more like scenario one however.

[pazzo83]

Don't follow your logic there. NYC's temps would fall more than a degree or two after midnight, more like four to six degrees.

If you look at the past few first freezes we've had:

 

11/6/12 - 5pm (day before): 41/22, 12am: 35/19, low: 31

12/10/11 - 5pm: 38/15, low: 32

12/4/10 - 5pm (day before): 39/21, 12am: 34/21, low 32

 

Today - 5pm: 45/26

[ADKweather27]

I still don't see lower than mid 30s for the park or NYC stations

[Stormlover74]

Many places have dropped 9-12 degrees in the past 4 hours so I do think near freezing is likely even in and around the city

[Kaner587]

41/21 at 7pm. That dewpoint is dropping relatively quick too

[SnoSki14]

Low dews and wind direction are very important in this case as well as the source region of the cold and strength of the high pressure. All of these factors favor a possible freeze for NYC tonight although I could see them staying at like 33F by morning.