November 2013 Observations & Discussions

[tim]

Many people are calling for an epic winter.

...donald sutherland..NOT!

[gkrangers]

We made it into the slight risk for later tonight.

[NEG NAO]

6Z GFS has only 0.19 at EWR tonight into tomorrow - chance that might go lower - until we get the anticipated pattern change we will remain in these drought conditions .......

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

[ADKweather27]

We made it into the slight risk for later tonight.

Seems odd with the cold front so far away

[MJO812]

We actually see a -AO forming on the EURO for the 2nd run in a row. Perfect timing if true.

Euro ensembles look lovely.

[Animal]

...donald sutherland..NOT!

 

I believe that he will release his final forecast in December though.

[NEG NAO]

I believe that he will release his final forecast in December though.

I hope he doesn't go overboard with the warmth in December - all signs are pointing to a back and forth typical step down into winter type of month might have days where it is in the 50's or higher and also periods of colder and snow - remember we have had a few very mild decembers in a row now and the pattern is different this year - no LaNina so odds are it will be closer to normal

[uncle W]

big changes will have to occur if we are going to get a snowy December...If this pattern continues it might be cold but dry...the ten coldest Decembers since 1950 averaged 1.92" of precipitation...normal is around 3.90"...snowfall averaged above normal averaging 8.2"...But the driest Decembers on the list averaged 2.8"...

year.....temp.....precip...snow.....

2010....32.8.......4.24".......20.1"

1995....32.4.......2.12".......11.5"

1989....25.9.......0.83".........1.4"

1980....32.5.......0.58".........2.8"

1976....29.9.......2.29".........5.1"

1963....31.2.......2.31".......11.3"

1962....31.5.......2.26".........4.5"

1960....30.9.......3.04".......18.6"

1958....29.4.......1.25".........3.8"

1955....29.7.......0.25".........3.3"

I doubt this December will make the top ten coldest this year unless there are big changes soon...If the dry pattern continues chances for big snows are slim...

[bluewave]

If this wxbell free sample verifies, some spots could see their first afternoon high of 32 degrees or lower for the 

season so far. 

 

[NEG NAO]

big changes will have to occur if we are going to get a snowy December...If this pattern continues it might be cold but dry...the ten coldest Decembers since 1950 averaged 1.92" of precipitation...normal is around 3.90"...snowfall averaged above normal averaging 8.2"...But the driest Decembers on the list averaged 2.8"...

year.....temp.....precip...snow.....

2010....32.8.......4.24".......20.1"

1995....32.4.......2.12".......11.5"

1989....25.9.......0.83".........1.4"

1980....32.5.......0.58".........2.8"

1976....29.9.......2.29".........5.1"

1963....31.2.......2.31".......11.3"

1962....31.5.......2.26".........4.5"

1960....30.9.......3.04".......18.6"

1958....29.4.......1.25".........3.8"

1955....29.7.......0.25".........3.3"

I doubt this December will make the top ten coldest this year unless there are big changes soon...If the dry pattern continues chances for big snows are slim...

This pattern is forecasted to start changing in about a week - with the pattern change should come the end of the extreme dryness we have been experiencing the last 3 months - yes this is another extreme event - this is currently the dryest fall on record so far in NYC with only 13 days left in the season

[Wxnyc]

Getting showers this morning here in Brooklyn, nothing heavy but it's rain..

[mupawxnut]

This pattern is forecasted to start changing in about a week - with the pattern change should come the end of the extreme dryness we have been experiencing the last 3 months - yes this is another extreme event - this is currently the dryest fall on record so far in NYC with only 13 days left in the season

What gives you any evidence that this pattern change will materialize?

[MJO812]

What gives you any evidence that this pattern change will materialize?

All the models agree on a change to a colder and possibly stormier pattern.

[Weathergun]

The 12z GFS has -14 to -16 850mb temps, next Sunday. That could give us a high near 32.

[mupawxnut]

All the models agree on a change to a colder and possibly stormier pattern.

We have seen this before--and the dry progressive pattern has remained.

[Weathergun]

12z GFS  developing a Miller A for Thanksgiving. 850mb temps are warm though.:

 

[MJO812]

12z GFS develops a coastal storm on Thanksgiving

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=264ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_264_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

[uncle W]

this mornings AO index number was down to just over +3 for the tenth straight day...Ten straight days could be a record?...Don S. would be able to answer that...it's been 35 years since the AO was this high for a neutral year in November...It finally became quite negative in late January and February produced one of the coldest two weeks in NYC recorded weather history...

[Weathergun]

The 12z NAM showing 250-500 J/kg MUCAPE and TTs near 50 late tonight. Could support some isolated t-storms with or without a low-topped squall line.

[Metsfan]

I know this is a November discussion, but take a look at my blog for December outlook at liveweatherblogs.com. Thanks.

[bkviking]

Port Jefferson Village: consistent rain interspersed with short breaks past 2 hours. Not sure why rain showers are seemingly stuck over same areas on Long Island. Warm front stuck here? Looking north to CT it has looked brighter all day there.

[CIK62]

Anyone here competent enough to comment on the sunspot eruptions currently in progress with now 1-year peaks in all pertinent indexes.   Won't this eventually kill the stratospheric warmup now in progress and mess up the rest of the cold winter outlook? 

[Allsnow]

12z euro has rain changing to snow as the arctic front come through saturday. We don't get above fez sunday

[Allsnow]

12z also has the storm threat for next week, with a cold high above Minnesota

[MJO812]

There is good agreement on a storm for next week.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

12z GFS develops a coastal storm on Thanksgiving

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=264ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_264_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

The way the maps look, this would be ALL rain and unless things change, don't be surprised if it's out to sea.

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

There are some signals on this weekend's maps for the beginnings of a pattern change. But it probably will be a slow process, and just because the maps are going to start to look different, better, and colder, does not necessarily mean that the set up is right yet for a snow producing east coast storm. Just be forwarned not to  jump the gun. And we have seen these signals before in the past month without change ultimately occurring. Also, *IF*, and I do mean *IF* an El Nino develops over this winter, faster than most of the models suggest, it would be a huge game-changer in favor of cold and possibly snowy weather in the east. But this is a HUGE *IF*--usually models forecast these SST changes to occur too quickly, not too slowly. If it's an extremely weak El Nino that develops, it's not that much of a game-changer and some of the models do not develop it at all.

WX/PT

[Allsnow]

The way the maps look, this would be ALL rain and unless things change, don't be surprised if it's out to sea.

WX/PT

 

 

I think its way more important going into december seeing these cold shots and costal threats. Im not expecting snow next week, just like to see some colder temps and possible threats

[mupawxnut]

There are some signals on this weekend's maps for the beginnings of a pattern change. But it probably will be a slow process, and just because the maps are going to start to look different, better, and colder, does not necessarily mean that the set up is right yet for a snow producing east coast storm. Just be forwarned not to jump the gun. And we have seen these signals before in the past month without change ultimately occurring. Also, *IF*, and I do mean *IF* an El Nino develops overcome this winter, faster than most of the models suggest, it would be a huge game-changer in favor of cold and possibly snowy weather in the east. But this is a HUGE *IF*--usually models forecast these SST changes to occur too quickly, not too slowly. If it's an extremely weak El Nino that develops, it's not that much of a game-changer and some of the models do not develop it at all.

WX/PT

Do you think this dry pattern will last all winter?

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Do you think this dry pattern will last all winter?

I think we're liable to know this over the next 4-6 weeks and the next 2-3 weeks are huge. Certainly, if El Nino begins to the develop, it will become progressively wetter, but that does not tell us how wet. In some cases when you have an extremely weak El Nino, it gets wetter in the east but to our south, not right here. In other words, the STJ is going to get energized and juiced, but will these storms make it this far north? And then there is model data suggesting no El Nino at all. Eventually, we have to get MUCH wetter than we've been, just a question of when exactly that is......will it be over the winter, or during the spring, or perhaps late winter into spring? I do not see any problem with getting extremely cold airmasses in here this winter, just a question of whether or not they are able to get locked in here, or keep on moving in and out. Stay tuned!

WX/PT