IsentropicLift Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Snow88, I always love your enthusiasm and you seem to take negative comments in stride but SIGH!No reason to go overboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 That Arctic high entering Montana in a week then moving East has good ensemble support. That's what JB would call the emperor of the north. I would guess near or record lows over the Rockies and Plains filtering east. MSLP_North32America_168.gif Yep! Gfs and euro ensembles support this. Looks cold that week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 The gfs super ensembles show a lot of interesting years.2002, 1958,1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 DT has posted his Winter 2013-2014 forecast and maps and has gone all in for cold and stormy weather!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 The euro control will make a lot of people happy if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 That Arctic high entering Montana in a week then moving East has good ensemble support. That's what JB would call the emperor of the north. I would guess near or record lows over the Rockies and Plains filtering east. MSL P_North32America_168.gif My wedding is next Saturday not loving the recent trends today world have been prefect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Actually had some rain this morning... 0.05 in.Here in brooklyn I got 0.07 wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Yep! Gfs and euro ensembles support this. Looks cold that week.It would be nice with early Hanukkah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 The euro control will make a lot of people happy if it verifies. Can u post it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Can u post it? I would if I was home. Someone will probably post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 The dry pattern at my location has really only been going on since september of this year. Prior to that precip had been close to normal for the first eight months of the year and precip for 2012 was around 45 inches which is just a couple of inches below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I would if I was home. Someone will probably post it. Wht did it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Just for craps and giggles the Day 10 EURO sets up a triple phaser potential! Some of the GFS ensembles show a large storm with a similar setup in the Day 10-13 period. Something to keep an eye on as the week goes on. Hell, the 10 Day EURO actually looks pretty similar to the setup before 93'. Lala land though so obviously grain of salt, but chasing dreams is half the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 DT has posted his Winter 2013-2014 forecast and maps and has gone all in for cold and stormy weather!! Former Fox PHL met Rob G released his winter outlook in September and informed the same. DT is riding the coat tails of Rob G, JB & LC. Best, Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Former Fox PHL met Rob G released his winter outlook in September and informed the same. DT is riding the coat tails of Rob G, JB & LC. Best, Matt Many people are calling for an epic winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Many people are calling for an epic winter. Yes, but also some are going for a mild one. IMO, I think we are headed for a good winter, however there are many things that can go wrong, like every other winter outlook. With many people on this forum predicting a +ao winter, I don't tnink that will be the case. The SAI index was taken when snow cover was at a standstill, and has grown enormously since then. Also, the qbo has been steadily dropping and I think that will continue. I believe we will have a +pna and NAO is up in the air, however I do see it negative not sure about west based though. The recent dry pattern and progressive flow has me concerned, but I believe a pattern change will come early to mid December. Late November looks to be transient not a pattern change, and they are rushed on the models as we all know. I think about 35 inches is in store for us, and if somehow a February niño develops, more than that. HUGE bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Former Fox PHL met Rob G released his winter outlook in September and informed the same. DT is riding the coat tails of Rob G, JB & LC. Best, Matt I remember many people calling for a third straight snowy 2011-2012 winter and instead it was one of our lousiest ever. People put too much stock in seasonal outlooks sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 0z NAM is very dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Many people are calling for an epic winter. all signals post to an epic winter. 1) Cool August 2) Dry October/November 3) Active bear/deer season - denning early! 4) Moon/ocean cycle 5) lack of geese this fall 6) firewood and snow snowblower prices up 3% 7) fall clothing sales up 2% to ly 8) JB honking hard 9) euro fantasy storms 10) NE early ski season already 12) lack of 2013 east coast tropical storms 13) we are due Best, Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Seems like every year many go for the cold/snowy forecast. Not many times do long range forecasts predict a dead ratter winter. I do think a lot of people will enjoy this winter, but like many know...... Spiking the football five yards short earns you zero points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 I remember many people calling for a third straight snowy 2011-2012 winter and instead it was one of our lousiest ever. People put too much stock in seasonal outlooks sometimes. Yeah definitely. It's hard enough predicting what will happen 1 week from now, let alone 2 or 3 months from now. I never put much stock in long range forecasting. Look at this hurricane season. It was supposed to be super active, but it was a huge bust. So who knows what will happen this winter. The best long range forecast for this winter is this: It could be cold/snowy, mild/snowless, or somewhere in between. That's the most reasonable long range prediction, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 all signals post to an epic winter. 1) Cool August 2) Dry October/November 3) Active bear/deer season - denning early! 4) Moon/ocean cycle 5) lack of geese this fall 6) firewood and snow snowblower prices up 3% 7) fall clothing sales up 2% to ly 8) JB honking hard 9) euro fantasy storms 10) NE early ski season already 12) lack of 2013 east coast tropical storms 13) we are due Best, Matt If anything we are due for a string of lousy winters. The late 90s in general were awful here, as were the 80s. The snowy winters historically (40"+) are much less frequent than the subpar ones here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 0z Euro is still really interesting in the long range. Looks like a weak low near the coast at 162 hours that gives NYC a little snow. 850 temps are cold enough. I wish it went past 240 hours because there was a storm in the making with cold air getting ready to come down. Snowmap shows a few inches for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 If anything we are due for a string of lousy winters. The late 90s in general were awful here, as were the 80s. The snowy winters historically (40"+) are much less frequent than the subpar ones here. Certainly hope it does not happen, but you are 100% correct about this. The last 13 years have been very, very snowy relative to normal out here. Even last winter, where basically nothing was going on, somehow managed 51.8" of snow out at Upton, of course heavily abetted by the February storm. One thing we do have going for us is that at least globally, as far as overall atmospheric warming goes, we have peaked and now turned the corner and temperatures are beginning to head downwards, a trend that should accelerate over the next 5 to 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 The dry pattern at my location has really only been going on since september of this year. Prior to that precip had been close to normal for the first eight months of the year and precip for 2012 was around 45 inches which is just a couple of inches below normal. Same here. We were jackpotted in a handful of localized events of training rain and thunderstorms and were several inches ahead of areas less than 20 miles away. It was a very strange summer in Hunterdon County. The dry pattern nowadays is region-wide though, so no more counterfeiting the drought with 3 inch rainstorms in my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Seems like every year many go for the cold/snowy forecast. Not many times do long range forecasts predict a dead ratter winter. I do think a lot of people will enjoy this winter, but like many know...... Spiking the football five yards short earns you zero points. Very true ..rarely do we see widespread forecasts for below normal snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 00z euro still brings the chill next weekend and snow for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 We actually see a -AO forming on the EURO for the 2nd run in a row. Perfect timing if true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 2nd EURO run in a row that shows a potential storm developing for Thanksgiving, the pattern looks like it MAY be able to support snow as well from probably NYC north. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 The cold air looks legit for next weekend, with both agreement on the -EPO. But the Euro and GFS disagree on the -NAO. Both solutions have some support from the ensemble means. If the Euro -NAO pattern were correct, we would have better chance at a winter storm near Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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