WeatherFox Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I saw that and more when I googled him...I didn't find out what he's doing today or is he even alive?... Looks like he is still kicking and working in Florida, as a meteorology instructor. http://www.fau.edu/divdept/lifelong/LLSJupiter/instructors/harris.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 The CFS monthly from the last few days of the previous have been a useful tool for monthly forecasts. But it has its good and bad months like every other forecast beyond the 6-10 day range. 6-10 day temperature forecasts using the Euro ensemble mean is an achievement that was not possible before the arrival of ensemble forecasting. I grew up during an era when 24 hr forecasts were often a big surprise. So modeling has come a long way. But I think that some people expect too much and get disappointed when a particular operation run past 120 hrs doesn't work out. That's getting into the range when you should be relying on the ensembles anyway. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/ I love ensemble modeling. I think it's really useful in the 6-10 day range. But even in this range I think our current state of ensemble modeling fails to reflect the true scope of possible variability. Ensembles usually cluster too close to the parent model and there is just too much variability to get more than a general picture. Beyond about 14 days, ensemble modeling seems a lot less useful to me. At this time range, the ensemble mean will not likely reflect anything close to the final solution. The range and mean do suggest something about the likelihoods of overall weather patterns, but with only limited skill. This is evidence by poor run to run consistency and low verification scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Euro had a decent cold shot for next weekend going into thanksgiving week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 The analogs for December are hinting that we will break the warm streak that we saw in 2011 and 2012. The last two Decembers were the 6th time since 1950 that NYC saw two 39.0 or higher Decembers in a row. Since many of these analogs were from a colder era, the down signal from last year may only result in closer to normal rather than a below normal December. So I don't think that we are going to see another 40 degree or warmer December this year. December 11-12 Similar two year composite Third December composite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 6Z GFS is showing the pattern change as we approach Thanksgiving the 28th , even has a coastal storm around that time period -rain changing to snow http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 The pattern still looks progressive. I wouldn't count on any major winter storms, next few weeks. Meanwhile, we are in 5% percent t on Day 2 and 3 outlooks, we still have to watch for low-topped squall line to make it here, from the Ohio Valley. ...NERN U.S.... STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY OUTPACE THE AXIS OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ENCOUNTER MUCH WEAKER INSTABILITY AS THEY APPROACH THE NERN STATES. HOWEVER...SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY PERSIST WITH REMAINING LOW TOPPED CONVECTION LATE THIS PERIOD. ..SRN NEW ENGLAND... A FORCED LOW TOPPED LINE OF CONVECTION WITH LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN MEAGER CAPE BUT A VERY STRONG KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT ALONG A 60+ KT LLJ. AT LEAST A LOW END THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT CONTINUES EWD AND OFFSHORE...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY GREATER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I believe that NYC north will have a snowy period during the holidays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I believe that NYC north will have a snowy period during the holidays You going to back this up with some science? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Actually had some rain this morning... 0.05 in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I believe that NYC north will have a snowy period during the holidays I agree 100% with this statement since all the major indicies are pointing towards a pattern change as we approach Thanksgiving and the 6Z GFS shows in the later images as you scroll through this that the arctic air is not so quick to leave as a negative NAO and AO is developing http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/models/gfsone-12/ex_all850tmpc.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Long range GEFS mean shows a +AO/+NAO. That supports storms to be cutters or misses for our area: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 .08 of rain this morning, ill take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I agree 100% with this statement since all the major indicies are pointing towards a pattern change as we approach Thanksgiving and the 6Z GFS shows in the later images as you scroll through this that the arctic air is not so quick to leave as a negative NAO and AO is developing http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/models/gfsone-12/ex_all850tmpc.html We have to watch for a storm during this timeframe. Good chance of it happening with the indicies like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 NAO and AO look to go mostly neutral as of today, which is an improvement but not one that would favor much cold and or storm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 We have to watch for a storm during this timeframe. Good chance of it happening with the indicies like that. Not trying to be a downer, but where are you guys seeing any signs of that? NAO looks predominantly positive on there to me. Pattern would be Cutter --> Cold --> Cutter --> Repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 It going to be tough to break the dry pattern in here with the models reloading the -EPO ridge in the long range. NYC hasn't seen a heavy rain since 9-22. The massive blocking pattern over the Pacific has weakened the Pacific Jet and you can see the dry conditions across the U.S. and especially the East . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 It going to be tough to break the dry pattern in here with the models reloading the -EPO ridge in the long range. NYC hasn't seen a heavy rain since 9-22. The massive blocking pattern over the Pacific has weakened the Pacific Jet and you can see the dry conditions across the U.S. and especially the East 500.gif 300.gif 60dPDeptUS.png. When do you think this dry pattern will break? Personally, I am worried that drier than normal is the new normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 The 12z GFS was very impressive for rainfall next weekend. It has a wash out for most of Saturday and all of Sunday. The 12z Euro is also 1"+ however its bias of holding too much energy back in the southwest made an overall impact. Either way next weekend looks wet. The GFS also has good model support from the GEFS. The GGEM which has been much more progressive lately blows everything up off the coast which is odd since it usually over amplifies systems in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 When do you think this dry pattern will break? Personally, I am worried that drier than normal is the new normal. Come on a few dry months and now dry is the new normal?.. what about the places out west that have had droughts lasting for years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 When do you think this dry pattern will break? Personally, I am worried that drier than normal is the new normal. A total overreaction. Droughts happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Some pretty nice analogs showing up today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 The 12z GFS was very impressive for rainfall next weekend. It has a wash out for most of Saturday and all of Sunday. The 12z Euro is also 1"+ however its bias of holding too much energy back in the southwest made an overall impact. Either way next weekend looks wet. The GFS also has good model support from the GEFS. The GGEM which has been much more progressive lately blows everything up off the coast which is odd since it usually over amplifies systems in the lo ng range. Euro's snowmap shows a couple of inches to the north of the area with the day 6-7 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Euro's snowmap shows a couple of inches to the north of the area with the day 6-7 event.Snow88, I always love your enthusiasm and you seem to take negative comments in stride but SIGH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Snow88, I always love your enthusiasm and you seem to take negative comments in stride but SIGH! It looks like a swfe. I am more interested in the pattern taking shape near Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 An obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 When do you think this dry pattern will break? Personally, I am worried that drier than normal is the new normal. It's hard to say since we have been in a dry pattern for almost two years now. But the extreme dry pattern since mid-September really stands out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 12z euro unleashes the chill in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Euro unleashes the Arctic hounds tday week. 3rd run in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 12z euro unleashes the chill in the long range. Haven't looked. What's it showing temp-wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Euro unleashes the Arctic hounds tday week. 3rd run in a row That Arctic high entering Montana in a week then moving East has good ensemble support. That's what JB would call the emperor of the north. I would guess near or record lows over the Rockies and Plains filtering east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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