November 2013 Observations & Discussions

[masomenos]

Sup jay!

Pretty large brush fire burning in Rockland right now.....not long after the special weather statement went out about brush fires today.

 

That's a shame...really nice little stretch of park on top of that hill. On a hot day I like going up there to get a little relief from the heat. Seems like that little bump in elevation is always good for a nice 5 degree temp drop.

[masomenos]

I was just gonna post that... Up here & points further north aren't as dry as you guys on the coast..

                                       Still approaching drought conditions nonetheless.

[MJO812]

30 degrees right now.

[BxEngine]

That's a shame...really nice little stretch of park on top of that hill. On a hot day I like going up there to get a little relief from the heat. Seems like that little bump in elevation is always good for a nice 5 degree temp drop.

Fire made it up and over the top of the mtn overnight, embers are hitting houses on Tweed blvd this morning.

[bluewave]

GFS already backing off the blocking near  Greenland  that it was showing just yesterday in the long range.

 

yesterday...11-24

 

 

today.....11-24

 

[SnoSki14]

This is why I think using LR is silly to some degree. It changes constantly, from run to run or day to day.

How can we know what will happen 10 days from now when we struggle to forecast 3 days from now sometimes.

There are no concrete indications of a sustained cold and stormy pattern developing in the next couple of weeks. The AO and NAO will be heading downward, but not necessarily negative just yet, I'm thinking it'll be more neutral which is a start I suppose.

[bluewave]

This is why I think using LR is silly to some degree. It changes constantly, from run to run or day to day.

How can we know what will happen 10 days from now when we struggle to forecast 3 days from now sometimes.

There are no concrete indications of a sustained cold and stormy pattern developing in the next couple of weeks. The AO and NAO will be heading downward, but not necessarily negative just yet, I'm thinking it'll be more neutral which is a start I suppose.

 

The -EPO/+AO/+NAO  has been good for a cold and dry pattern in the East so far this month.

 

 

 

 

[Snow_Miser]

6z GFS tanks the AO.

[eduggs]

The -EPO/+AO/+NAO  has been good for a cold and dry pattern in the East so far this month.

 

 

Much of the region had a slightly positive or near neutral monthly temp departure until 3 days ago.  If the arctic front had arrived at a different angle, we might still be running positive departures.  And a week from now, many might be pack in the positive.

 

Does anybody have a verifiable track record for forecasting in the long range?  I mean statistically, not anecdotally?  It just seems like a difficult proposition with weak regional correlations and large run to run ensemble changes.  I suspect a continual forecast of slightly above average temps would beat almost any other forecast in the long run.

[bluewave]

Much of the region had a slightly positive or near neutral monthly temp departure until 3 days ago.  If the arctic front had arrived at a different angle, we might still be running positive departures.  And a week from now, many might be pack in the positive.

 

Does anybody have a verifiable track record for forecasting in the long range?  I mean statistically, not anecdotally?  It just seems like a difficult proposition with weak regional correlations and large run to run ensemble changes.  I suspect a continual forecast of slightly above average temps would beat almost any other forecast in the long run.

 

6-10 day temperature means from the Euro ensembles usually have a good track record for picking areas

of the country that will be above or below normal temperatures. The Euro weeklies and CFS one month ahead

forecasts last few days of the month have been pretty good for general pattern clues especially in stable

patterns.

[uncle W]

Much of the region had a slightly positive or near neutral monthly temp departure until 3 days ago.  If the arctic front had arrived at a different angle, we might still be running positive departures.  And a week from now, many might be pack in the positive.

 

Does anybody have a verifiable track record for forecasting in the long range?  I mean statistically, not anecdotally?  It just seems like a difficult proposition with weak regional correlations and large run to run ensemble changes.  I suspect a continual forecast of slightly above average temps would beat almost any other forecast in the long run.

it wasn't any easier 25 years ago...

[Momza]

it wasn't any easier 25 years ago...

Unc,

Refresh my aging memory, how accurate was he? And where is he now?

[Rtd208]

it wasn't any easier 25 years ago...

That is Bob Harris correct? Certainly brings back some memories, I was 13.

[bluewave]

We should get closer to 1908 next week with the .25+ GFS forecast.

 

 

Driest falls in NYC (SON)

 

3.60...2013...so far

4.00...1908

4.67...1909

4.93...1881

4.97...1931

5.02...1879

5.32...1965

5.76...1901

5.77...1941

5.83...1914

5.96...1948

 

 

 

 

 

[NEG NAO]

Unc,

Refresh my aging memory, how accurate was he? And where is he now?

1988 -89 NYC had 8.1 inches of snow - so "Dr." Bob Harris busted big time

[NEG NAO]

We should get closer to 1908 next week with the .25+ GFS forecast.

 

 

Driest falls in NYC (SON)

 

3.60...2013...so far

4.00...1908

4.67...1909

4.93...1881

4.97...1931

5.02...1879

5.32...1965

5.76...1901

5.77...1941

5.83...1914

5.96...1948

 

gfs_namer_168_precip_ptot.gif

 

 

if past history is any indicator cut that .25 in half - that front is going to zip through here to fast

[BxEngine]

i actually found it.. it's in Orangeburg..

http://www.rocklandtimes.com/2013/11/14/volunteers-from-throughout-southeastern-rockland-county-called-in-to-tame-orangeburg-fire/

Still burning, sounds like it jumped over tweed blvd this morning. Whole county and westchester are covered in smoke.

[IsentropicLift]

At least Thanksgiving week looks to remain somewhat interesting, although I suspect that will fizzle out as well as time goes on.

[SnoSki14]

At least Thanksgiving week looks to remain somewhat interesting, although I suspect that will fizzle out as well as time goes on.

What happened to yesterday's optimism? You live and die by model runs, they were a lot better yesterday, but now they've backed down so your long range outlook is changing.

The bias towards cold and snow is too much. When some see warmth or heat waves in the long range, they ignore it. When they see a cold and stormy pattern, they jump all over it.

[Absolute Humidity]

it wasn't any easier 25 years ago...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjQqyjv-Zm0    

 

This guy was the best. 

[IsentropicLift]

What happened to yesterday's optimism? You live and die by model runs, they were a lot better yesterday, but now they've backed down so your long range outlook is changing.

The bias towards cold and snow is too much. When some see warmth or heat waves in the long range, they ignore it. When they see a cold and stormy pattern, they jump all over it.

I'm still optimistic about Thanksgiving week. Not necessarily for a snowstorm but for a major storm of some kind on the eastern seaboard.

 

The 12z Euro didn't let me down. I sure hope that ridging out west comes to fruition.

[eduggs]

6-10 day temperature means from the Euro ensembles usually have a good track record for picking areas

of the country that will be above or below normal temperatures. The Euro weeklies and CFS one month ahead

forecasts last few days of the month have been pretty good for general pattern clues especially in stable

patterns.

The numbers I've seen for the Euro weeklies and CFS 1-month are rarely better than climo.  Accurate long range forecasting is hard, even when you set the bar so low that you are talking in qualitative terms like "slightly below normal."

[masomenos]

Fire made it up and over the top of the mtn overnight, embers are hitting houses on Tweed blvd this morning.

Crazy. It's going to look like a war zone up there for years. Wonder how they're making out with the houses...quite a few multi million dollar houses along Tweed.

 

The video from the news copters looked pretty bad last night. Pretty bummed that one of my favorite roads in the area has been incinerated.

[Weathergun]

12z Euro continues the daily trend to decrease rainfall totals for Monday AM. Now only .40 -. 60" for NYC and NJ. Fast progression and more upper-level support going to our north, going against heavy rainfall amounts.

[Allsnow]

12z euro op is cold and stormy for tday week. We are in the ice box. Hopefully it has some support

[IsentropicLift]

12z euro op is cold and stormy for tday week. We are in the ice box. Hopefully it has some support

The GFS/GGEM and the Euro have all shown this potential in the long range but I see no reason to believe this won't change as time goes on, as the models have changed with every event this year so far. That cut off low over Texas looks bogus and the ridging out west is in a more favorable position, but without that cut off low, the flow will probably be too fast for the trough to amplify and the system off the coast will get kicked OTS. The other probable outcome is that the cut off low or something to that affect does occur and the lakes get a monster cutter.

[bluewave]

The numbers I've seen for the Euro weeklies and CFS 1-month are rarely better than climo.  Accurate long range forecasting is hard, even when you set the bar so low that you are talking in qualitative terms like "slightly below normal."

 

The CFS monthly from the last few days of the previous have been a useful tool for monthly forecasts. 

But it has its good and bad months like every other forecast beyond the 6-10 day range. 6-10 day

temperature forecasts using the Euro ensemble mean is an achievement that was not possible

before the arrival of ensemble forecasting. I grew up during an era when 24 hr forecasts were 

often a big surprise. So modeling has come a long way. But I think that some people expect too

much and get disappointed when a particular operation run past 120 hrs doesn't work out.

That's getting into the range when you should be relying on the ensembles anyway.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/

[uncle W]

Unc,

Refresh my aging memory, how accurate was he? And where is he now?

I'm not sure what happened to Bob...He used to be on WORam radio in the 1970's...there was always a snowstorm in the long range for Bob...He could not help himself...He was the 1980's version of Joe Bastardi...

[WeatherFox]

I'm not sure what happened to Bob...He used to be on WORam radio in the 1970's...there was always a snowstorm in the long range for Bob...He could not help himself...He was the 1980's version of Joe Bastardi...

I was fond of Bob Harris.  He was a great weather forecasting communicator.   A google search turned up this link:

 

http://www.people.com/people/article/0,,20072973,00.html

[uncle W]

I was fond of Bob Harris.  He was a great weather forecasting communicator.   A google search turned up this link:

 

http://www.people.com/people/article/0,,20072973,00.html

I saw that and more when I googled him...I didn't find out what he's doing today or is he even alive?...