Brian5671 Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Unless there's a wave of some kind that can develop on the front, we will have largely a dry frontal passage if the low is situated near Hudson Bay. Maybe some added instability can generate some thunderstorm activity since there's a big temperature contrast, but I wouldn't expect organized rain. same ol same ol past few months.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 You have been talking about day 10 storms the last two weeks. Nothing has happen and it's pretty ridiculous to forecast storm post 5 days on op runs. What else do we have to talk about? How about meaningless temperature or lack of precip records? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 The euro is .25+ with the front. It's def drier then a few days ago What are you looking at? My maps show 0.75"+ from the city north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Euro has a trough digging all the way to Mexico at day 9. Looks like a classic case of holding energy back too much. That cut off low east of Bermuda is quite comical as well. At least it would really break the pattern if it verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 The 12z GGEM has the weak coastal for Sunday as well. It also looks like the GFS in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 The 12z Euro is never going to verify, but the setup at day ten looks sexy to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 The euro is .25+ with the front. It's def drier then a few days ago And some more ideal radiational cooling conditions with the next Arctic high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 What else do we have to talk about? How about meaningless temperature or lack of precip records? Weather is weather, I'm actually fascinated with this dry, record breaking pattern. It certainly fits with the extremes we've been dealing with quite well. The early cold is also interesting to me, didn't NYC record the earliest 20s since 2004, nearly a decade ago. Taking things no more than 5 days out and realistically only 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 The euro is .25+ with the front. It's def drier then a few days ago Soundings have .60" for NYC. They have been .50"-.75" for at least 6 runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Soundings have .60" for NYC. They have been .50"-.75" for at least 6 runs in a row. Many people in this forum live outside of NYC. Either way you're splitting hairs. The rain looks to be at least moderate for a few hours. Looks like 0.50"+ per hour rates go just north and west of I-287. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Soundings have .60" for NYC. They have been .50"-.75" for at least 6 runs in a row. this run looks overall drier in the northeast compared to 0z. depressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 52 degrees here.. been a long while since posting.. good to see you guys again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Many people in this forum live outside of NYC. Either way you're splitting hairs. The rain looks to be at least moderate for a few hours. Looks like 0.50"+ per hour rates go just north and west of I-287. I believe he was responding to the post saying the Euro was drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Euro has a storm brewing at day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Soundings have .60" for NYC. They have been .50"-.75" for at least 6 runs in a row. Wouldnt shock me to get less than .50 from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 52 degrees here.. been a long while since posting.. good to see you guys again.Sup jay!Pretty large brush fire burning in Rockland right now.....not long after the special weather statement went out about brush fires today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Even with little rain for 3 months NYC reservoirs are actually above normal http://www.nyc.gov/html/dep/html/drinking_water/maplevels_wide.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Sup jay! Pretty large brush fire burning in Rockland right now.....not long after the special weather statement went out about brush fires today. hey buddy.. good to see you again.. I hadn't heard about it. I'll have to check that out.. where exactly is it burning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 hey buddy.. good to see you again.. I hadn't heard about it. I'll have to check that out.. where exactly is it burning? i actually found it.. it's in Orangeburg.. http://www.rocklandtimes.com/2013/11/14/volunteers-from-throughout-southeastern-rockland-county-called-in-to-tame-orangeburg-fire/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Total rainfall here since 9/22 is 0.64", mostly in spits and spurts that weren't substantial enough to soak into the ground. We did have 0.92" back on 9/22, but that is the only substantial rain we've had since mid-July. I do not believe I've ever seen it this dry this long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 That day ten threat has been on the ensembles for a few days now. I have seen a semi-consistent threat of east coast precip on the long range ensembles. But no consistent threat of snow. The ensembles indicate the most likely scenario of a trof axis and baroclinic zone too far west. It changes every day, sometimes significantly. So something good could materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Total rainfall here since 9/22 is 0.64", mostly in spits and spurts that weren't substantial enough to soak into the ground. We did have 0.92" back on 9/22, but that is the only substantial rain we've had since mid-July. I do not believe I've ever seen it this dry this long. I'm hoping this is not the start of something big meaning a big area wide drought like we saw back in the early 1960's...We did have one of the wettest Junes on record and since the early 70's any drought was short term...It was always followed by a deluge...we are in for a deluge soon or it's the beginning of a long term dry spell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 If you're in NJ, please contribute your seasonal snowfall last winter, if you kept track... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41699-post-your-seasonal-snowfall-from-winter-2012-2013-last-winter/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Putting my faith in you and having my gf comment on their fb posting. Just to see if they say anything or change it. I don't use fb so I can't do it myself. I did it even though I'm not the daring type... They replied... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Total rainfall here since 9/22 is 0.64", mostly in spits and spurts that weren't substantial enough to soak into the ground. We did have 0.92" back on 9/22, but that is the only substantial rain we've had since mid-July. I do not believe I've ever seen it this dry this long. We are running 60 day departures in the ballpark of June and July 1999. I can remember how brown all the vegetation was that summer with the extreme heat combined with drought. Several local ponds were all dried up back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 If any north / east brunswick nj residents drive by farrington lake it is almost dried up in many spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 18z gfs looks mild overall, cold shot is less intense, precip is around .25-.50" which would be deemed rather significant. No sign of sustained -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Euro weeklies look good, especially after turkey day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Even with little rain for 3 months NYC reservoirs are actually above normal http://www.nyc.gov/html/dep/html/drinking_water/maplevels_wide.shtml That's because it has been nowhere near as dry up there as it has down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 That's because it has been nowhere near as dry up there as it has down here. I was just gonna post that... Up here & points further north aren't as dry as you guys on the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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