November 2013 Observations & Discussions

[Guest Pamela]

For example, last winter the Mt Sinai observer came in with 44.5" on the winter to my 48.3", or 92.1% of my total. The Mt Sinai station seems to be off a highway and a commercial area, so that might be a factor in play here.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/site.php?station=MSIN6&network=NY_COOP

Looking further, for 2010-11, the Mt Sinai guy measured 55.9" to my 60.3", or 92.7% of my seasonal total...but he measured more than me for the year overall, except for one event, the January 11-12 blizzard, when he came in with just 12.8" to my 18.0". Looking at the PNS, my gut feeling is that there might have been an under measurerment on his part that day.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

1130 AM EST THU JAN 13 2011

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS

SNOWFALL OF

/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...

FARMINGVILLE 18.6 506 PM 1/12 NWS EMPLOYEE

MATTITUCK 18.5 500 PM 1/12 PUBLIC

ORIENT 18.0 300 PM 1/12 PUBLIC

BAITING HOLLOW 17.7 800 PM 1/12 PUBLIC

STONY BROOK 17.5 1100 AM 1/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER

CENTEREACH 17.0 1140 AM 1/12 PUBLIC

CENTERPORT 16.8 700 AM 1/13 NWS COOP

EAST SETAUKET 16.5 900 AM 1/12 PUBLIC

HOLTSVILLE 16.0 1000 AM 1/12 PUBLIC

MIDDLE ISLAND 16.0 130 PM 1/12 PUBLIC

BRIDGEHAMPTON 16.0 100 PM 1/12 NWS COOP

SMITHTOWN 15.8 1000 AM 1/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER

NORTH PATCHOGUE 15.5 1000 AM 1/12 PUBLIC

ISLIP AIRPORT 15.2 400 PM 1/12 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

[Guest Pamela]

For example, last winter the Mt Sinai observer came in with 44.5" on the winter to my 48.3", or 92.1% of my total. The Mt Sinai station seems to be off a highway and a commercial area, so that might be a factor in play here.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/site.php?station=MSIN6&network=NY_COOP

For the February 2013 blizzard, are numbers were very close...Mt Sinai 26.0" to my 25.5".

[doncat]

After today, will be running a -2.3 temp departure for the month here.

[bluewave]

.25 to .50 next week would  get us close to 1908.

 

 

Driest falls in NYC (SON)

 

3.60...2013...so far

4.00...1908

4.67...1909

4.93...1881

4.97...1931

5.02...1879

5.32...1965

5.76...1901

5.77...1941

5.83...1914

5.96...1948

 

[Weathergun]

I don't expect to see alot of rain. But it could be another forced low-topped squall line with gusty winds event. With 110kt+ 500mb jet over Upstate NY:

 

 

SPC seeing the potential in 4-8 day outlook (excerpt):

   EVENTUALLY...THOUGH...ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL   LINE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS BECOMING THE MOST PROMINENT   SEVERE THREAT.  IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD   PROGRESS INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHEAST LATE   SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT THIS IS STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO   DELINEATE A REGIONAL SEVERE RISK AREA EAST OF THAT CURRENTLY   DEPICTED.  THEREAFTER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER   OF THE PERIOD APPEARS LOW.

[NEG NAO]

I think a major pattern change is coming end of the month into early December.

Having a positive NAO, negative PNA, and positive AO and yet we so much cold air flushing southbound out of Canada. There is so much cold air to be had that it's finding any window it can to charge south. The simplest troughs are producing the coldest temperatures!

How about snow cover so far in the arctic regions?

The month of October featured an area of 21,009 square kilometers of snow coverage which ranked 7th out of 46 years of data. Snow coverage ongoing in Asia is nearly 13,000 square miles ranking it the 4th highest in 46 years of data.

This Winter cold going to be brutal!!!

Agree 100 % - todays updated NAO - PNA - AO indicies forecast show all 3 moving sharply inthe right direction after mid month . What is interesting is even though we have had a positive NAO and AO and a negative PNA the last couple of weeks we have been able to have this cold arctic outbreak in the east...............

[IsentropicLift]

The 00z Euro still had 0.75"+ from KTTN north. Most of northern NJ also has a few hour period of heavy rain. Just because the pattern has been dry doesn't mean that things can not or will not change quickly. Orange County, NY was the JP on the 00z run with 1.25"+.

[IsentropicLift]

The 00z ECMWF and the 00z GGEM both have a coastal storm just offshore for this Sunday. That's another feature that will need to be watched.

 

[Isotherm]

After today, will be running a -2.3 temp departure for the month here.

 

 

0.0 exactly here right now. The next several days will put everyone solidly above normal with highs in the mid 60s+ and warm nights (45-50).

[Isotherm]

So what do we need to track extremes for if they get removed because they are extreme?

 

 

Don't you know? Cold extremes don't happen anymore, so it's pointless to keep them as reference.

[IsentropicLift]

Nobody is talking about it but the 4k 12z NAM has some light rain for the area on Saturday morning.

[Rjay]

Someone should be daring and point it out on their FB page.

They responded..

[forkyfork]

the monday cold front keeps trending faster and drier

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

the monday cold front keeps trending faster and drier

 

Good. This will serve good promise for the end of November. 

[bluewave]

.25 to .50 would be par for the course with these frontal passages recently. We would approach 1908

on the dry falls list and probably finish the high up by the end of November. This would be quite

an achievement considering how long ago those years on the list were.

 

 

Driest falls in NYC (SON)

 

3.60...2013...so far

4.00...1908

4.67...1909

4.93...1881

4.97...1931

5.02...1879

5.32...1965

5.76...1901

5.77...1941

5.83...1914

5.96...1948

[Allsnow]

Gfs is pretty chilly next week after we warm up.

[mob1]

Gfs is pretty chilly next week after we warm up.

Yeah, then it just starts showing hardcore weather porn in the LR.

[IsentropicLift]

Yeah, then it just starts showing hardcore weather porn in the LR.

I knew that was going to happen eventually. The GEFS ensembles have been showing a day 9-13 threat for awhile now.

 

You have a nice 50/50 low but the ridging out west is awful.

 

The other thing is that we get into an onshore flow so even with the coastal out near the benchmark we're still all rain. At least it's something to track.

[Allsnow]

I knew that was going to happen eventually. The GEFS ensembles have been showing a day 9-13 threat for awhile now.

You have a nice 50/50 low but the ridging out west is awful.

The other thing is that we get into an onshore flow so even with the coastal out near the benchmark we're still all rain. At least it's something to track.

It's way to early to be talking p-type about a fantasy storm 300 hrs away

[eduggs]

No clear threats on the GFS/GEFS in the LR.  A few troughs look to swing through and cool things down for a few days.  But the overall longwave pattern evolution and orientation does not look favorable.  I hope that changes in future cycles.  Plenty of threats appear in the midrange anyway. 

[SnoSki14]

According to the gfs, true winter like cold is only 300+ hrs away. It's pure fantasy of course. The pattern looks the same though with no big storms or any significant precipitation at all. Maybe we'll pick up .1-.2 of rain if we're lucky. I'll give that dry record a 50% chance of occurring as it's not that difficult to get .4 of an inch in two weeks usually. I think they could get a couple tenths with the frontal passage and then all they need is another 2 tenths to either tie or fall short of the record. 

 

Given how every event has underperformed, I'd say there's a good chance they'll get the record. I expect things to trend a bit colder after the frontal passage if the gfs is correct with the strength of the high getting to 1040+ as it nears our region. Saw the drought monitor and I agree with the expansion of dry conditions. I do think things will change by December if the -NAO is to be believed, but I don't want to go that far. 

[IsentropicLift]

It's way to early to be talking p-type about a fantasy storm 300 hrs away

It's not 300 hours away. It's a day 8-10 threat. And the precip type is cut and dry with that setup as modeled.

[IsentropicLift]

No clear threats on the GFS/GEFS in the LR.  A few troughs look to swing through and cool things down for a few days.  But the overall longwave pattern evolution and orientation does not look favorable.  I hope that changes in future cycles.  Plenty of threats appear in the midrange anyway. 

That day ten threat has been on the ensembles for a few days now. 

[IsentropicLift]

The day 10 trough in the east today is well supported by the 12z GEFS ensemble mean. It's about as enthusiast as you could expect for such a long range ensemble mean. The mean has the 0.25"+ contour over the entire region from day 9-11 with a coastal just SE of the benchmark day ten. That tells me that several of the individual members likely look similar to the 12z GFS op.

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z Euro is holding serve for the front early next week. Also has some spotty rain for Saturday.

[Allsnow]

It's not 300 hours away. It's a day 8-10 threat. And the precip type is cut and dry with that setup as modeled.

You have been talking about day 10 storms the last two weeks. Nothing has happen and it's pretty ridiculous to forecast storm post 5 days on op runs.

[MJO812]

That's a nice looking pattern in the long range on the gfs.

[Allsnow]

The euro is .25+ with the front. It's def drier then a few days ago

[jm1220]

The euro is .25+ with the front. It's def drier then a few days ago

Unless there's a wave of some kind that can develop on the front, we will have largely a dry frontal passage if the low is situated near Hudson Bay. Maybe some added instability can generate some thunderstorm activity since there's a big temperature contrast, but I wouldn't expect organized rain.

[atownwxwatcher]

It's not 300 hours away. It's a day 8-10 threat. And the precip type is cut and dry with that setup as modeled.

Using the GFS for long range , when it changes every 6 hours is not the best model to use. ECM ensembles would be the model of choice to go out to 10 days...