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November 2013 Observations & Discussions

Rtd208

By Rtd208,
in New York City Metro

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

Pattern really doesn't look all that favorable for storms as some believe it may look. I just don't see it at all, the NAO (east-based by the way) looks transient, the EPO goes positive along with the AO staying positive. Temperatures look near normal at best, but the dry pattern looks to continue for the time being. I'm hopeful things change by December, but these patterns could last for several months so I wouldn't be surprised if the dryness lasts well into winter. So you end up with cold shots but nothing to show for it, which is why an El Nino could do wonders for this pattern.

And those who keep saying that the LR looks great or favorable needs to realize that it's called the long range for a reason. Just because it shows a favorable pattern 11-15 days out doesn't mean it's going to happen. These things change every day, like this current brief cold snap. Didn't many expect us to be warm for the first half of November, isn't that what the models showed in early November or late October?

We struggle to forecast the weather 3 days out, let alone 2 weeks. The NAO and AO are also very difficult to pinpoint beyond a certain time frame as they can be quite volatile with many day to day changes.

The Pacific pattern should im
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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

Pattern really doesn't look all that favorable for storms as some believe it may look. I just don't see it at all, the NAO (east-based by the way) looks transient, the EPO goes positive along with the AO staying positive. Temperatures look near normal at best, but the dry pattern looks to continue for the time being. I'm hopeful things change by December, but these patterns could last for several months so I wouldn't be surprised if the dryness lasts well into winter. So you end up with cold shots but nothing to show for it, which is why an El Nino could do wonders for this pattern.

And those who keep saying that the LR looks great or favorable needs to realize that it's called the long range for a reason. Just because it shows a favorable pattern 11-15 days out doesn't mean it's going to happen. These things change every day, like this current brief cold snap. Didn't many expect us to be warm for the first half of November, isn't that what the models showed in early November or late October?

We struggle to forecast the weather 3 days out, let alone 2 weeks. The NAO and AO are also very difficult to pinpoint beyond a certain time frame as they can be quite volatile with many day to day changes.

The Pacific pattern should improve in the long range as suggested by the MJO, subsurface warmth in the ENSO regions and warming SST in the Gulf of Alaska. The Euro weeklies and various runs of the GEFS show rising heights over AK between thanksgiving and Dec 1. Could set up a quick start to winter even absent a -NAO.
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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

Still going to be over an inch of rain for most spots on the 18z GFS which will feel like a deluge after this dry spell. Hoping it will be the stick that breaks the camels back.

 

Start time looks to be noon from west to east and end time looks to be early morning hours clearing out from west to east. Looks like we clear out before sunrise.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Still going to be over an inch of rain for most spots on the 18z GFS which will feel like a deluge after this dry spell. Hoping it will be the stick that breaks the camels back.

 

Start time looks to be noon from west to east and end time looks to be early morning hours clearing out from west to east. Looks like we clear out before sunrise.

The associated low is near Hudson Bay. I'm not sure about the organized batch of rain coming through the area like the GFS has, if the low cuts so far north and west. There seems to be no energy left behind to spawn another wave along the front either. I'm leaning toward it being a drier frontal passage like the pattern we've been seeing.

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Rjay

Rjay

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The associated low is near Hudson Bay. I'm not sure about the organized batch of rain coming through the area like the GFS has, if the low cuts so far north and west. There seems to be no energy left behind to spawn another wave along the front either. I'm leaning toward it being a drier frontal passage like the pattern we've been seeing.

I agree for now. If the wave of low pressure doesn't develop then we see a couple scattered showers

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
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The associated low is near Hudson Bay. I'm not sure about the organized batch of rain coming through the area like the GFS has, if the low cuts so far north and west. There seems to be no energy left behind to spawn another wave along the front either. I'm leaning toward it being a drier frontal passage like the pattern we've been seeing.

The Euro and GFS are in good agreement. I'll take that combo any day of the week.
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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

For all you LR enthusiasts, the gfs shows warm east/cold west with low precipitation amounts. Actually pattern pretty much repeats this past week for next week with warm conditions, then strong cold shot for 1-2 days, then warm again. I think we could see at least mid 60s for at least a day prior to the frontal passage, if not higher. 

 

The brief cold shot may be a tad colder than this past shot though. Any speculation of a true pattern change around Thanksgiving week are just that, "speculation". 

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NEXtreme

NEXtreme

Posted
Posted

todays departures

Nyc -15

Lga -14

Ewr -13

Jfk -13

Bdr -14

I think a major pattern change is coming end of the month into early December.

Having a positive NAO, negative PNA, and positive AO and yet we so much cold air flushing southbound out of Canada. There is so much cold air to be had that it's finding any window it can to charge south. The simplest troughs are producing the coldest temperatures!

How about snow cover so far in the arctic regions?

The month of October featured an area of 21,009 square kilometers of snow coverage which ranked 7th out of 46 years of data. Snow coverage ongoing in Asia is nearly 13,000 square miles ranking it the 4th highest in 46 years of data.

This Winter cold going to be brutal!!!

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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
Posted

thanks...You'll also find it in my daily almanac posts...I get my info from noaa and

http://climate.usurf.usu.edu/mapGUI/mapGUI.php

http://threadex.rcc-acis.org/

I have almanacs going back to 1962...

Putting my faith in you and having my gf comment on their fb posting. Just to see if they say anything or change it. I don't use fb so I can't do it myself.

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

I did it even though I'm not the daring type...

Thinking about it more, I realized that the latest NCDC QC probably decided it was too extreme and removed it.  That happened to a number of records out here recently.  They just implemented it NWS-wide in September so they probably didn't even notice yet.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

Thinking about it more, I realized that the latest NCDC QC probably decided it was too extreme and removed it.  That happened to a number of records out here recently.  They just implemented it NWS-wide in September so they probably didn't even notice yet.

tomorrows record is 32 for the low max...first freezing max date...33 today should not have been that extreme...

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tmagan

tmagan

Posted
Posted

Thinking about it more, I realized that the latest NCDC QC probably decided it was too extreme and removed it.  That happened to a number of records out here recently.  They just implemented it NWS-wide in September so they probably didn't even notice yet.

Didn't many of the 1990's BWI snowfall reports get dinged by NCDC QC?

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NorthShoreWx

NorthShoreWx

Posted
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Thinking about it more, I realized that the latest NCDC QC probably decided it was too extreme and removed it.  That happened to a number of records out here recently.  They just implemented it NWS-wide in September so they probably didn't even notice yet.

 

So what do we need to track extremes for if they get removed because they are extreme?

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

You guys on Long Island - please report your totals to NWS OKX.  Their latest PNS has zero reports from LI and makes it look like the only accumulations were N and W of NYC.

Baiting Hollow to my east & Stony Brook to my west came in with 1/2 inch...but Mt Sinai, the closest station to my place put down just 0.2" in his record. He's near a highway and tends to measure just a bit low it seems. I left for work before the snow was over yesterday w/o taking a measure as I was pressed for time but it looked like better than 0.2" here even before it stopped. I'm putting 0.3" in the record and the heck with it. IIRC it became snow around 7:20 AM and began to stick around 8:00 AM. That means accumulating snow fell for at least an hour and a half and it seemed to be falling at the rate of at least a 1/4 inch per hour.

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

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Posted

Baiting Hollow to my east & Stony Brook to my west came in with 1/2 inch...but Mt Sinai, the closest station to my place put down just 0.2" in his record. He's near a highway and tends to measure just a bit low it seems. I left for work before the snow was over yesterday w/o taking a measure as I was pressed for time but it looked like better than 0.2" here even before it stopped. I'm putting 0.3" in the record and the heck with it. IIRC it became snow around 7:20 AM and began to stick around 8:00 AM. That means accumulating snow fell for at least an hour and a half and it seemed to be falling at the rate of at least a 1/4 inch per hour.

For example, last winter the Mt Sinai observer came in with 44.5" on the winter to my 48.3", or 92.1% of my total. The Mt Sinai station seems to be off a highway and a commercial area, so that might be a factor in play here.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/site.php?station=MSIN6&network=NY_COOP

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