bluewave Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 driest Oct-Nov combos... 2013...0.65" 2001...2.02" 1909...2.02" 1908...2.08" 1924...2.44" 1946...2.51" If we can swing a big enough precip fail the rest of the month, then this would be the first two NYC months in a row below 1.00" since June and July 1999. 0.59 0.44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 If we can swing a big enough precip fail the rest of the month, then this would be the first two NYC months in a row below 1.00" since June and July 1999. 0.59 0.44 We're not going to make it out of November without at least one significant precipitation event for the region. Most of the models have multiple threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 We're not going to make it out of November without at least one significant precipitation event for the region. Most of the models have multiple threats. The below one inch will be tough to do considering it has never happened in October and November before. But we are in a pattern when storms look great from a week out but trend drier as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 I wouldn't bet my house on model fantasy at this point...We need a big change like a negative AO/NAO for starters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 THE WILMINGTON NC INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAD A TRACE OF SNOWFALL EARLYTHIS MORNING. THIS IS THE EARLIEST THAT SNOW HAS EVER BEEN REPORTEDHERE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR EARLIEST SNOWFALL OBSERVED WASNOVEMBER 14TH, 1976. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 I wonder if Central Park will fail to make it to 40 today? It's currently only 35 as of 12PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darienzo Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Making a run at record LOW max temps...Northwesterlies keeping temps from rising that much. I think it will be close... Records: NYC - 39 LGA - 39 JFK - 41 12PM Roundup: NYC - 35 LGA - 35 JFK - 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 We're not going to make it out of November without at least one significant precipitation event for the region. Most of the models have multiple threats. yes, but as the event draws closer, it dries out. Nothing to indicate to me that we're going to change that pattern. Our last rainfall of more than .25 was on 9/22! (BDR) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 The 12z GEFS ensemble mean remains much flatter and progressive with the troughing for early next week than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 NYC 37 at 1pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 NYC 37 at 1pm Impressive. Think of how many January days that are not even that cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 12z Euro is much less amplified than the GFS. It does give us a good 1"+ rainstorm for most locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 12z Euro is much less amplified than the GFS. It does give us a good 1"+ rainstorm for most locations. what day-Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 what day-Monday? Starting Monday around noon and ending early morning hours on Tuesday. Heaviest rain falls Monday night. It's a nice steady moderate soaking rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 We're in a fast flow pattern so we'll just get quick shots of precipitation and not much else. I think those dry records will come close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Making a run at record LOW max temps...Northwesterlies keeping temps from rising that much. I think it will be close... Records: NYC - 39 LGA - 39 JFK - 41 12PM Roundup: NYC - 35 LGA - 35 JFK - 37 Looks like all the locations will tie these records...unless we get a jump in temps the next hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 The GFS/EURO today continue to support the development of a +AO/EPO and -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Looks like all the locations will tie these records...unless we get a jump in temps the next hr the record low max in NYC is 33 set in 1911... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 With no rain thru sunday I'll have a 30 day total of 0.34 in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 One 12z GEFS ensemble member looked like the Euro day ten and produced a blockbuster miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 One 12z GEFS ensemble member looked like the Euro day ten and produced a blockbuster miller A. euro day ten had a blockbuster miller a? if so what did the euro ensembles show for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 The GFS/EURO today continue to support the development of a +AO/EPO and -NAO. The NAO is east-based and does not pinch off into a block. Therefore, the impact it has on our pattern is minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 The NAO is east-based and does not pinch off into a block. Therefore, the impact it has on our pattern is minimal.It keeps some troughing to our Northeast though which mitigates the warmth caused by the unfavorable Pacific. Low pressure near the Canadian Maritimes usually locks in northeasterly or easterly flow so temperatures stay closer to average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 euro day ten had a blockbuster miller a? if so what did the euro ensembles show for that No, god no One GEFS member looked similar to the Euro around the same time frame. (Day 8-9) That one member produced a nice miller A up the coast. The Euro has some activity off the SE coast but it's a far cry from significant. I was just pointing out that we might get a run or two showing a long range storm soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 the record low max in NYC is 33 set in 1911... Upton had these on there FB page NYC: 39 EWR: 41 JFK: 41 LGA: 39 ISP: 40 BDR: 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 No, god no One GEFS member looked similar to the Euro around the same time frame. (Day 8-9) That one member produced a nice miller A up the coast. The Euro has some activity off the SE coast but it's a far cry from significant. I was just pointing out that we might get a run or two showing a long range storm soon. Ok got it lol. Pattern looks favorable for a storm during that timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Pattern really doesn't look all that favorable for storms as some believe it may look. I just don't see it at all, the NAO (east-based by the way) looks transient, the EPO goes positive along with the AO staying positive. Temperatures look near normal at best, but the dry pattern looks to continue for the time being. I'm hopeful things change by December, but these patterns could last for several months so I wouldn't be surprised if the dryness lasts well into winter. So you end up with cold shots but nothing to show for it, which is why an El Nino could do wonders for this pattern. And those who keep saying that the LR looks great or favorable needs to realize that it's called the long range for a reason. Just because it shows a favorable pattern 11-15 days out doesn't mean it's going to happen. These things change every day, like this current brief cold snap. Didn't many expect us to be warm for the first half of November, isn't that what the models showed in early November or late October? We struggle to forecast the weather 3 days out, let alone 2 weeks. The NAO and AO are also very difficult to pinpoint beyond a certain time frame as they can be quite volatile with many day to day changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Pattern really doesn't look all that favorable for storms as some believe it may look. I just don't see it at all, the NAO (east-based by the way) looks transient, the EPO goes positive along with the AO staying positive. Temperatures look near normal at best, but the dry pattern looks to continue for the time being. I'm hopeful things change by December, but these patterns could last for several months so I wouldn't be surprised if the dryness lasts well into winter. So you end up with cold shots but nothing to show for it, which is why an El Nino could do wonders for this pattern. And those who keep saying that the LR looks great or favorable needs to realize that it's called the long range for a reason. Just because it shows a favorable pattern 11-15 days out doesn't mean it's going to happen. These things change every day, like this current brief cold snap. Didn't many expect us to be warm for the first half of November, isn't that what the models showed in early November or late October? We struggle to forecast the weather 3 days out, let alone 2 weeks. The NAO and AO are also very difficult to pinpoint beyond a certain time frame as they can be quite volatile with many day to day changes. All that's being discussed beyond banter is that the storm threat for early next week. The threat has tons of model support for significant rain. I'm well aware that the -NAO is transient and east based. I don't know why people feel the need to constantly remind us of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 from upton fb page NYC: 39 (ties the previous minimum high temp record)EWR: 41 (ties the previous minimum high temp record)JFK: 41 (ties the previous minimum high temp record)LGA: 40ISP: 39 (breaks the previous minimum high temp record of 40)BDR: 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 the record low max in NYC is 33 set in 1911... Not going to break or tied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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