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November 2013 Observations & Discussions


Rtd208

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Anyone see the 0z GFS?

 

I see some slight potential for the system on the 19-20 if the energy digs the right way and the patterns slows a little more.

- that semi tropical low is also cool to see out there, that might turn into some blocking for us later this month.

Looks more like a FROPA to me..

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Parents are down to 26.1.  Here are the local airport lows thru 7AM:

NYC 29

LGA 30

JFK 29

TEB 28

EWR 28

LDJ 29

HPN 24

CDW 26

FRG 28

MMU 25

ISP 27

BLM 27

SMQ 25

DXR 16

BDR 25

12N 24

FWN 23

SWF 23

HWV 27

MGJ 24

A few spots might get a smidge lower before they start to rise again.

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This may have been the first time NYC and South Carolina experienced snow around the same day in November.

 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AT 400 PM IT WAS 70 DEGREES IN COLUMBIA.
IT WAS SNOWING AND 36 AT 1000 PM. A CORRECTION FROM EARLIER...THIS
IS THE 3RD EARLIEST DATE IN THE PAST 124 YEARS THAT SNOW HAS
OCCURRED IN NOVEMBER AT COLUMBIA. MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IN NOVEMBER
HAS ONLY BEEN RECORDED ON NOVEMBER 19 (3.3 INCHES) AND NOVEMBER 28
(1.0 INCHES).

 

https://twitter.com/EdPiotrowski/status/400490454405218304/photo/1

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At NYC, the temperature fell to 29° this morning. That's the earliest reading below 30° since November 10, 2004 when the temperature also fell to 29°.

interesting to see such a cold shot with a very positive AO...it has happened in the past...one example in January 1957 when NYC hit zero while the AO was +2 going up to +5.078...On Feb. 1st that year NYC got 6" of snow with the AO over +4...In February 1957 the AO became very negative and there were a few more snow and cold events in March and April but most of the snow for that winter fell with a very plus AO...

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interesting to see such a cold shot with a very positive AO...it has happened in the past...one example in January 1957 when NYC hit zero while the AO was +2 going up to +5.078...On Feb. 1st that year NYC got 6" of snow with the AO over +4...In February 1957 the AO became very negative and there were a few more snow and cold events in March and April but most of the snow for that winter fell with a very plus AO...

I feel this cold shot has been impressive for November. Most have seen there first flakes and we may break some record low high temps today. Plus the growing season has ended for all the major urban areas

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That trough has actually trended more progressive and less deep. Gives areas less than 1.0" of rain.

 

We can't buy a storm here.

 

It's tough to get more than .50-.75 with such a progressive pattern here this fall.

 

 

Driest falls in NYC (SON)

 

3.60...2013...so far

4.00...1908

4.67...1909

4.93...1881

4.97...1931

5.02...1879

5.32...1965

5.76...1901

5.77...1941

5.83...1914

5.96...1948

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That trough has actually trended more progressive and less deep. Gives areas less than 1.0" of rain.

 

We can't buy a storm here.

We need something to slow these troughs and fronts down. Otherwise we'll keep seeing these same boring frontal passages, brief shots of cold and then warmups ahead of the next cold front.

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We need something to slow these troughs and fronts down. Otherwise we'll keep seeing these same boring frontal passages, brief shots of cold and then warmups ahead of the next cold front.

 

With all the dominant EPO blocking this year especially since mid-April, the NAO blocking episodes have been more transient.

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A little blocking would have done wonders with this current pattern. Lots of phasing and potent shortwaves dropping down with no room to amplify once they reach the coast.

We could have had a major storm had there been blocking over Greenland or northeast of us, to force the energy to slow down, become less sheared out, and consolidate into a storm. Had there been more of a +PNA and blocking northeast of here, I would have believed the crazy solutions on those few Euro runs last week.

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It's tough to get more than .50-.75 with such a progressive pattern here this fall.

 

 

Driest falls in NYC (SON)

 

3.60...2013...so far

4.00...1908

4.67...1909

4.93...1881

4.97...1931

5.02...1879

5.32...1965

5.76...1901

5.77...1941

5.83...1914

5.96...1948

driest Oct-Nov combos...

2013...0.65"

2001...2.02"

1909...2.02"

1908...2.08"

1924...2.44"

1946...2.51"

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The 12z GFS has now trended significantly sharper and more amplified with the trough digging in next Tuesday. The end result is a very significant coastal storm developing "just" offshore. The trough actually goes negative tilt about 12 hours too late. It wouldn't take much improvement to bring a significant storm to the area now.

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