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November 2013 Observations & Discussions


Rtd208

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Pretty good model support from the GFS and the Euro for a long wave trough approaching the east coast next week.

If we could somehow get blocking on top of it, it could lock in the cold/wet pattern for a change instead of causing another boring cold front passage and short lived cold spell before the next torch. Maybe then I could finally buy a significant storm for our area.

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We'll probably need the trailing end of the cold front to stall right over the area next week

to have a shot at seeing 1.00" or greater. 

 

attachicon.gifMSLP_North32America_168.gif

With most of the ensemble data suggesting a steady fall of the NAO coming shortly, that should favor a deeper trough approaching the coast next week and less likelihood of a lakes cutter.

 

nao.sprd2.gif

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With most of the ensemble data suggesting a steady fall of the NAO coming shortly, that should favor a deeper trough approaching the coast next week and less likelihood of a lakes cutter.

 

nao.sprd2.gif

 

The primary low next will be a Lakes cutter with maybe some secondary wave development slowing the cold front

down for possibly a better rain chance here. The NAO drop will be from the SE ridge poking north toward SE Canada

and Southern Greenland rather than a top down development.

 

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Anyone get a measurement in the Port Jeff area? Left for work with snow (with snow falling) on the ground and there is still a little left now. Want to log a proper # in the record. Nearby Mt Sinai coop had 0.2" while Stony Brook had 0.5".

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NWS OKX issued a new PNS since I wrote that - there are now a few totals from Suffolk County listed, but none from Nassau:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&version=1

Link to report your snowfall totals: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/report.php

Upton has still not added reports from Nassau. I submitted mine.

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