IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Expecting a nice burst of snow here on the 287 corridor. It will probably stick to the side roads here. They aren't being treated and temps have been cold enough the past week or so. The 00z 4k Nam is pretty sweet too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 will all be rate based. If there are any heavier areas of snow, it would probably stick to the elevated surfaces. I always hedge on the side of caution with the model PBL schemes, sometimes they are too warm when it is snowing with good snow growth aloft and cooling temps at the surface. The models busted rather badly in the Detroit area today with the FROPA, the temps ended up just behind the front alot colder than the models had predicted 12-24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 The models busted rather badly in the Detroit area today with the FROPA, the temps ended up just behind the front alot colder than the models had predicted 12-24 hours out. Good catch. I havent really been paying attention that. I have noticed we are running a few degrees warmer than guidance right now, but once the front gets here its a moot point. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Not measureable in 1997. BTW, new NAM seems a bit toasty in the BL. It has the QPF but its a bit warm for snow tomorrow morning. At least in the city. I'd say it's a 50-50 chance we have a period of snow more than just a few flurries around here. We'll have to see if precip hangs around behind the front and how cool the boundary layer can get. If it's only some showery stuff and we're stuck at 38-40, it'll likely just be some rain/drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Expecting a nice burst of snow here on the 287 corridor. It will probably stick to the side roads here. They aren't being treated and temps have been cold enough the past week or so. The 00z 4k Nam is pretty sweet too. doubit it very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 01z HRRR total snow through hour 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 doubit it very much.with all due respect the back roads up here in the hills and the woods are no comparison to the concrete jungle that is NYC and immediate surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 with all due respect the back roads up here in the hills and the woods are no comparison to the concrete jungle that is NYC and immediate surrounding areas. with all due respect i live nw of u and 200- 300 feet higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 The 0z GFS is a little bit cooler and drier than the NAM in the BL tomorrow morning around NYC.: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 I don't have 12Z but its actually a little warmer than 18Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 In any case, both support snow flying in the air at least. Will have to see how quickly the cold air rushes in and if the precip rate is enough to knock the temp down closer to the Td. I don't have 12Z but its actually a little warmer than 18Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 with all due respect i live nw of u and 300 feet higher Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 I don't have 12Z but its actually a little warmer than 18Z... Yes, I've noticed a slight warmer trend overall. At this point, I'm more confident that NYC and LI sees snow in the air than any accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Yes, I've noticed a slight warmer trend overall. At this point, I'm more confident that NYC and LI sees snow in the air than any accumulation. Yeah that's more or less where I am. Even with that sounding, there could be a brief burst right after that drives temps to freezing and puts down a light coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 FWIW and its prob not worth much, KBGM just crashed from 38 to 32 once there snow started. Looks like the front has just moved through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 with all due respect i live nw of u and 200- 300 feet higher Ouch! lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Btw, the 4km NAM drops ISP and OKX to 32-33F tomorrow morning. It shows better lift in the snow growth region, causing higher snowfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 FWIW and its prob not worth much, KBGM just crashed from 38 to 32 once there snow started. Looks like the front has just moved through. Yeah... they do have 1600 feet of elevation to help out with that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Yeah... they do have 1600 feet of elevation to help out with that... Yup of course, just pointing out the ob. Now down to 30 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam-hires/00/nam-hires_namer_018_sim_reflectivity.gif is this precipitation falling at 1 pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 BTV at 350ft dropped 9 degrees between 10pm and 11pm. Down to 33F with light snow and 1mi vis. This location is obviously much further north, but a 5-8 degree drop behind the front has been common across western and northern NY. The 10pm obs at PBG and BTV were pretty cool. NW winds with snow at Plattsburgh and SW winds, 42F and light rain at Burlington, 20 miles south. Sure enough, the radar clearly showed a narrow band of high reflectivity between the two cities, indicating the location of the front. Definitely a rapid temp drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 The omega still looks decent in a saturated snow growth region based on the BUFKITs I'm looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Just had a brief rain squall near Albany and recorded a 5F temp drop in 3 minutes!! after barely budging all afternoon and evening. Only down to 40.6 but still pretty cool to see. The hill towns are likely snowing around here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 FWIW and its prob not worth much, KBGM just crashed from 38 to 32 once there snow started. Looks like the front has just moved through. Big difference between the university and the WFO: http://www2.binghamton.edu/events-center/about/webcam.html http://www.erh.noaa.gov/bgm/webcam/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Big difference between the university and the WFO: http://www2.binghamton.edu/events-center/about/webcam.html http://www.erh.noaa.gov/bgm/webcam/ maybe its an error but the time stamp on the university cam says 2011/3/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Now snowing at MPO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Moderate snow and 33 degrees here, Pike County Pa (Poconos). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pequest Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Light rain with snow mix...38 degrees. Winds really picked up at 2:30AM and temp began dropping. Oxford Twp, Warren County NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 It would appear the front just passed my parents place in Ewing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 First accumulating snow of the season, whoo hoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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