IsentropicLift Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 They might hoist WWA late tonight if the rest of the guidance tonight comes in as juicy as the 18z NAM. I know they typically do that for the first accumulating snowfall of the season. It also has bad timing in terms of affecting the morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I wrote an article detailing the snow potential for tomorrow, as well as going over a BUFKIT sounding. http://www.nymetroweather.com/2013/11/11/first-snowflakes-season-tomorrow-morning/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 might be some minor accumulations tmrw morning during the commute. some people in other forums saying up to an inch or two i dont see tht happening for our area at least. just excited to see snow for the first time in 7 months! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I wrote an article detailing the snow potential for tomorrow, as well as going over a BUFKIT sounding. http://www.nymetroweather.com/2013/11/11/first-snowflakes-season-tomorrow-morning/ Very nice writeup man sounds good. At the very least we should see snow in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Still definitely on board for the possibility of a coating late tonight/early Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 The last 3 hours of the 21Z HRRR are interesting, really shows the precip shield re-developing over top the area as the other models have shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 The last 3 hours of the 21Z HRRR are interesting, really shows the precip shield re-developing over top the area as the other models have shown. Care to post the image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Looks like after our brief period of winter we warm back up, while the upper mid-west looks prime for a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Care to post the image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Snow or no, we are looking at a nearly ideal setup for record low temperatures, with cloud cover blocking daytime heating at the surface and what looks to be a clear, dry atmosphere for Tuesday night, to complement the cold air mass... wind will add a few degrees but overall some very impressive lows look to be on tap. We'll see how snow cover potentially effects this. My forecast low is an even 20 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 I'm not sure about records... but here are some, just in case: NYC - 22 LGA - 26 EWR - 24 JFK - 25 BDR - 23 ISP - 24 TTN - 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 I don't think I can recall such cold lows that are expected this early, I'm not sure how cold we got with the snow event last November, I think we dropped to around 27-28F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 five coldest November 12ths, 28 in 1926..... 28 in 1933..... 29 in 1956..... 29 in 1957..... 30 in 1987 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 five coldest November 12ths, 28 in 1926..... 28 in 1933..... 29 in 1956..... 29 in 1957..... 30 in 1987 Tuesday night would mean the 13th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Tuesday night would mean the 13th Tuesday night would mean the 13th we could come close to the top five by midnight tomorrow... 11/13 top five... 22 in 1873..... 24 in 1986..... 25 in 1920..... 26 in 1911..... 30 in 1996..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 I'm not sure about records... but here are some, just in case: NYC - 22 LGA - 26 EWR - 24 JFK - 25 BDR - 23 ISP - 24 TTN - 20 Ray do you have record low max for the next two days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Ray do you have record low max for the next two days? I'm not Ray but I do have NYC's records... 11/12... 38 in 1894..... 39 in 1887..... 40 in 1926..... 41 in 1910..... 41 in 1968..... 11/13 33 in 1911..... 39 in 1977..... 40 in 1901..... 40 in 1968..... 41 in 1995..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 I'm not Ray but I do have NYC's records... 11/12... 38 in 1894..... 39 in 1887..... 40 in 1926..... 41 in 1910..... 41 in 1968..... 11/13 33 in 1911..... 39 in 1977..... 40 in 1901..... 40 in 1968..... 41 in 1995..... Thank you...the mid night high will kill us for tomorrow, perhaps we can crack top 4 on wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ852 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013NJZ009-010-012>015-PAZ070-071-101>106-121000-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN852 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013...LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAYMORNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO DROPTHROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY BETWEENABOUT 200 AM AND 400 AM.THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLD AIRBUILDS INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT, THE RAIN SHOWERS WILLLIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT ANDTUESDAY MORNING.SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH. THESNOW IS FORECAST TO ACCUMULATE MAINLY ON UNPAVED SURFACES.THE SNOW MAY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY. IF YOU WILL BE DRIVING LATETONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY MORNING, USE EXTRA CARE.THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END LATE ON TUESDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 First winter weather statements SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY708 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-121000-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-708 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREATONIGHT...QUICKLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE. LIGHT RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OVER AREASWEST AND NORTH OF NYC METRO AREA...WITH THE PRECIPITATION PUSHINGSOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THE COLDERTEMPERATURES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...A TRANSITION TO ARAIN/SNOW MIX OR EVEN ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED...GENERALLY DURING THEPERIOD OF THE MORNING COMMUTE BETWEEN 4 AND 10 AM.WHILE MINIMAL ACCUMULATION IS FORECASTED...MAINLY HALF AN INCH ORLESS ACROSS THE AREA...THE PRECIPITATION MAY STILL RESULT INSLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Guidance continues to forecast the potential for some meaningful or significant precip sunday night into Monday. Both the gfs and euro are showing over an inch of liquid for the area. This would be best shot at some real rain over the last 45 days. Such a scenario would push 2013 down the list of driest falls but beyond next Monday the drier pattern looks to return. We'll see how things progress over the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 any measurable snow in Central Park before Dec. 1st will be the third straight year NYC got measurable snow before Dec. 1st...This hasn't happened since there were four straight ending in 1938... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 any measurable snow in Central Park before Dec. 1st will be the third straight year NYC got measurable snow before Dec. 1st...This hasn't happened since there were four straight ending in 1938... Somehow remembering 95-97 having some snow in each of those Novembers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Somehow remembering 95-97 having some snow in each of those Novembers? Not measureable in 1997. BTW, new NAM seems a bit toasty in the BL. It has the QPF but its a bit warm for snow tomorrow morning. At least in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 All sites will be below normal for the month after tomorrow wit more of a back and forth pattern taking shape after this cold shot. With a little more than 2 weeks to go after tomorrow, the month looks to end out close to normal but likely a tad below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Not measureable in 1997. BTW, new NAM seems a bit toasty in the BL. It has the QPF but its a bit warm for snow tomorrow morning. At least in the city. Thanks Ray. I guess it was close then. ECM and ensembles look to bring another arctic blast in by the 20th for a couple of days. that may offer the next chance of some snow if we don't get a trace tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Not measureable in 1997. BTW, new NAM seems a bit toasty in the BL. It has the QPF but its a bit warm for snow tomorrow morning. At least in the city. Some virga/light rain on deck. Boring weather continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Not measureable in 1997. BTW, new NAM seems a bit toasty in the BL. It has the QPF but its a bit warm for snow tomorrow morning. At least in the city. Bufkit still supports flakes in the air in NYC/LI around 8am. But surface temps are in the mid-upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Bufkit still supports flakes in the air in NYC/LI around 8am. But surface temps are in the mid-upper 30s. Yeah that probably wouldn't stick, even to colder surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Yeah that probably wouldn't stick, even to colder surfaces. will all be rate based. If there are any heavier areas of snow, it would probably stick to the elevated surfaces. I always hedge on the side of caution with the model PBL schemes, sometimes they are too warm when it is snowing with good snow growth aloft and cooling temps at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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