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November 2013 Observations & Discussions


Rtd208

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Would say with this wind 80% of the leaves are off the trees. Euro still looks good for some flakes tuesday morning, after that we look to get mild by weeks end. Around the 20th looks to be our next shot of chilly air. All the airports should finally see 32 or below this week.

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Would say with this wind 80% of the leaves are off the trees. Euro still looks good for some flakes tuesday morning, after that we look to get mild by weeks end. Around the 20th looks to be our next shot of chilly air. All the airports should finally see 32 or below this week.

 

Now that will be more like typical Indian summer weather after this mid weeks chill and widespread below freezing temperatures. 

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Coating of snow certainly looks possible Monday night/Tuesday morning.  Haven't focused much on it with the drama of the "storm that wasn't" followed by the Philly sub-forum mess...  but probably rain changing to snow.  Not a lot but could be the first accum of the season into the I-95 corridor.

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Coating of snow certainly looks possible Monday night/Tuesday morning.  Haven't focused much on it with the drama of the "storm that wasn't" followed by the Philly sub-forum mess...  but probably rain changing to snow.  Not a lot but could be the first accum of the season into the I-95 corridor.

Going to be tough to get a coating, a quantification I hate considering it is not an official measurement, considering ground temperatures.

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Going to be tough to get a coating, a quantification I hate considering it is not an official measurement, considering ground temperatures.

Well to me, a "coating" is a measurable amount less than an inch.  A "dusting" to me includes up to 0.1".  So 0.1" to 0.9" would be a coating to me. 

 

The cold GFS would suggest it should get cold enough for it to happen, especially on grass and other elevated surfaces like cars etc.  I wouldn't expect anything on roads. 

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Well to me, a "coating" is a measurable amount less than an inch.  A "dusting" to me includes up to 0.1".  So 0.1" to 0.9" would be a coating to me. 

 

The cold GFS would suggest it should get cold enough for it to happen, especially on grass and other elevated surfaces like cars etc.  I wouldn't expect anything on roads. 

Moisture is limited. But the 6z GFS still shows some modest omega in the mid-level levels and some steeping low-level lapse rates. Some hints also had at some sound/ocean enhancement too. So I wouldn't be surprised,if this happened for parts of I-95 corridor.

 

73mccn.jpg

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Well to me, a "coating" is a measurable amount less than an inch.  A "dusting" to me includes up to 0.1".  So 0.1" to 0.9" would be a coating to me. 

 

The cold GFS would suggest it should get cold enough for it to happen, especially on grass and other elevated surfaces like cars etc.  I wouldn't expect anything on roads. 

It'll be nice to see, if it happens. Second November in a row with measurable snow.

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First flakes and frz for NYC did not look possible a week ago. I thought it would take a few more weeks

Per NAM and GFS, It does look now like there is a good chance of snow showers region-wide as the cold front comes through late tonight into tomorrow. There could be a dusting to an inch.

WX/PT

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While not comparing this at all to last year, Nov 7-8 snow, and year before than October snow, were the ground temps too warm then?  If it snows a little bit at night or around daybreak, ground temps on the road will be to warm but if there is actually snow, a coating is certainly possible in a few spots.

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While not comparing this at all to last year, Nov 7-8 snow, and year before than October snow, were the ground temps too warm then?  If it snows a little bit at night or around daybreak, ground temps on the road will be to warm but if there is actually snow, a coating is certainly possible in a few spots.

This very light snow at best will likely only stick to cold surfaces like car tops that haven't been run for several hours. Last year and the year before the snow came down heavy enough that it wasn't an issue.

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Useless drivel as usual at this forum. 

 


2-4 flakes with 6 flake lollies.

 

In any case, if you actually take a look at the model forecast, it will be hard pressed that there will be liquid precip with dew points in the 20s and temps in the mid 30s.  The real issue here is if there is actually a good annafrontal precip band as depicted by the nam and to a degree the GFS.  As we have seen with many other fronts recently, the precip dissipates as it moves over. There is a strong jet streak moving overhead as this forecast band moves through so there could be some support. 

 

Quick look at the simulated radar on the NAM, and it does show a solid area of precip over SE CT, NYC, and LI tomorrow morning around daybreak.

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So we'll be able to add  2013 to the list of recent years when many of us see our first

flakes of the season before November 15th. October 2008 featured a late month storm

where parts of NJ cashed in with more extensive snows across the region in 2011, and 2012.

 

 

 

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The 12z Euro is actually pretty juicy for the frontal passage now. Some areas get over 0.10" of QPF.

 

NWS TAFs now have a decent shot at snow for JFK/LGA...I'm somewhat skeptical with a strong downslope component we can see much though...

     KJFK 111740Z 1118/1224 25013G18KT P6SM SCT150 BKN250      FM111900 22015G23KT P6SM SCT100 BKN250      FM120400 25016G24KT P6SM BKN070 OVC100      FM120800 31014G23KT 5SM -SHRASN BKN020 OVC040      TEMPO 1210/1214 1SM -SN BKN009 OVC012      FM121400 34015G22KT P6SM SCT015 BKN035 OVC080      TEMPO 1214/1216 3SM -SNRA BKN015      FM121600 34016G24KT P6SM SCT035 BKN080 BKN150       
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