Snow_Miser Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Pretty large storm at the end of the GGEM and ECMWF. If such a large storm system were to come to fruition, could it have implications for a change in the pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Driest 10 year period was from 1956 to 1965 averaging 36.87"...the wettest 10 year period was 2002-2011 averaging 56.27"... A recent study has that 60's drought as probably the most severe in hundreds of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 A recent study has that 60's drought as probably the most severe for hundreds of years. Screen shot 2013-11-09 at 2.27.51 PM.png Very interesting. Hopefully that means it won't be happening again for a while... though I know statistically it doesn't really mean that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 We may only see .25-.50 precip over the next 10 days which would set us up for a high ranking driest fall as the Euro weeklies continues dry pattern after the 25th if correct. gfs_namer_240_precip_ptot.gif 590x458_11080305_nov8b.png I like how it says "drier" like it could be any drier haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Pretty large storm at the end of the GGEM and ECMWF. If such a large storm system were to come to fruition, could it have implications for a change in the pattern? The trough depicted on the Euro is really negative tilted. I would think that if we had a major lakes cutter, that would most likely change the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Yeah, that thread in particular is pretty dead now. Look foward to zwyts and ctblizz input. Why would I want to hear from Ampsu or tombo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 18z has a little snow for the area with the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 That's what happens when staff members are left out to dry! That long range thread was the most informative thread of this board! They started their own forum, they were not left out to dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 18z has a little snow for the area with the front. NAM has a little snow on the back end of the front, might see some flurries fly. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETANE9_18z/etaloop.html#picture 18z GFS very dry over next 16 days. KISP GFS plots show only 0.17" for the entire forecast period. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/archive.shtml?text=KISP&run=2013110918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Looks like we all see our first flakes Tuesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Obviously things can change but the next two weeks are bone dry. Definitely a good shot at our driest fall on record. Also looks like true indian summer next weekend into the following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Looks like we all see our first flakes Tuesday morning maybe a stray flurry but it looks like a dry frontal passage to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Just gusted here over 35mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Looks like we all see our first flakes Tuesday morning The first flakes are always exciting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Temp up to 61 which is higher than forecasted. Along with the higher temps are higher winds, gusting 30-45mph now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Temp up to 61 which is higher than forecasted. Along with the higher temps are higher winds, gusting 30-45mph now. My forecast went from mid 50s to low 60s but forecast to start dropping this afternoon. Quite pleasant out now in spite of the gusty winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 The first flakes are always exciting to see. The first flakes were on these boards about a week ago. Anyway, do not hold your breath. You may see some especially north and west of the city, but in the city itself and on Long Island with the still relatively warm BL temperatures, it's questionable. You would probably have to look really hard and see them in between a few raindrops. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 1pm: S30mph G44mph at EWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Probably the deepest mixed layer that you will see around here for overperforming winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Obviously things can change but the next two weeks are bone dry. Definitely a good shot at our driest fall on record. Also looks like true indian summer next weekend into the following week. I really don't think upper 50's in mid nov qualifies as Indian summer lol. Glancing at the 12z euro I are upper 50's as the maybe a day or two close to 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Any ideas when this dry pattern may break? I am beginning to get worried that drier than normal is the new normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I really don't think upper 50's in mid nov qualifies as Indian summer lol. Glancing at the 12z euro I are upper 50's as the maybe a day or two close to 60 Euro has the large storm again cutting into the lakes around D8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Any ideas when this dry pattern may break? I am beginning to get worried that drier than normal is the new normal. Dry falls generally correlate to wetter than normal winters according to the statistics Uncle posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 2pm: S31 and G40mph at JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Pouring rain at MetLife stadium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Any ideas when this dry pattern may break? I am beginning to get worried that drier than normal is the new normal. The dry pattern started after the late summer into fall 2011 deluge. It's very hard to predict the duration of multi-year dry patterns here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Euro has the large storm again cutting into the lakes around D8. Ya post day 10 looks like another formidable arctic intrusion with maybe signs of a -nao popping with those heights surging ahead of that cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Ya post day 10 looks like another formidable arctic intrusion with maybe signs of a -nao popping with those heights surging ahead of that cutter It definitely looks like it wants to raise heights over Greenland into the longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 It definitely looks like it wants to raise heights over Greenland into the longer range. ECMWF -nao.jpg Problem is there may not be a mechanism to lock it in. Right now I'd err on the side of it being a transient north atlantic ridge / temporary height rise, before returning to positive values. It could dip the NAO negative for a time, but I'm not confident it's long lasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Very dark skies, looks like a stormy summer afternoon. Can see the rain pouring in skies to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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