uncle W Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Biggest snowfalls before December 1st...10.0" 11/26-27/18989.5" 11/29/30/1882 est...8.8" 11/24-25/19386.0" 11/30/18985.0" 11/29-30/18964.7" 11/07-08/20124.7" 11/22-23/19894.0" 11/29-30/18924.0" 11/26-27/19383.7" 11/26/1882 est...3.7" 11/29-30/1945 3.0" 11/24/18983.0" 11/30/19672.9" 11/30/1995 2.9" 10/29/2011 1898 had three storms on the list... 1882 and 1938 had two storms on the list...1882 had no snow in December and 1898 and 1938 had very little... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Just had a burst of 40mph gusts and heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Wind is ripping here right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Biggest snowfalls before December 1st... 10.0" 11/26-27/1898 9.5" 11/29/30/1882 est... 8.8" 11/24-25/1938 6.0" 11/30/1898 5.0" 11/29-30/1896 4.7" 11/07-08/2012 4.7" 11/22-23/1989 4.0" 11/29-30/1892 4.0" 11/26-27/1938 3.7" 11/26/1882 est... 3.7" 11/29-30/1945 3.0" 11/24/1898 3.0" 11/30/1967 2.9" 11/30/1995 2.9" 10/29/2011 1898 had three storms on the list... 1882 and 1938 had two storms on the list...1882 had no snow in December and 1898 and 1938 had very little... Interesting thing is that 1898-99 featured a Negative Neutral ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I'm getting a sprinkle now and it looks like snow flurries as close as the PA NJ border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 We just had our first snowflakes of the year here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Staying around 48F for now, a bit cooler than the low 50s forecast and mostly cloudy. Quick thought. How are we going to do in the temperature departure department. Things look generally below to well below normal for at least a week if not longer starting today. Next week we could be pulling more than one -10 to -12 departure or even greater. Of course what happens after is yet to fully be determined though a warming trend is arguably favored but I didn't expect things to trend this cool for mid November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 It will be interesting to see if the mid to late part of the month stays dry enough for NYC to finish with a top 10 driest fall. The dates on the list were a very long time ago. Driest falls in NYC (SON) 3.57...2013...so far 4.00...1908 4.67...1909 4.93...1881 4.97...1931 5.02...1879 5.32...1965 5.76...1901 5.77...1941 5.83...1914 5.96...1948 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 We just had our first snowflakes of the year here. Same here! Def had some graupel this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 They city will def go below frz next week. The cold ishot is very impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liwxfan Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 So... curious to see if we drop below freezing tonight here in Suffolk County. Currently sitting at 41° here in Mount Sinai. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 We may only see .25-.50 precip over the next 10 days which would set us up for a high ranking driest fall as the Euro weeklies continues dry pattern after the 25th if correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Hit 31.7 this morning. First freeze of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 They city will def go below frz next week. The cold ishot is very impressive Clearly something changed since as of 10/30 the CMC_NCEP ensembles indicated a most likely THK of 5480m for 11/12-13 period but now shows the most likely THK to be 5220m, good for a solid 20 degree 2m T difference. It only started to change 4 days ago. The culprit is probably stratospheric warming proceeding faster than originally predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Dry is dry, what a boring pattern. Im on my phone so I cant check but in the last 2 months i'd be surprise if I have seen over 1.5" of rain, let alone an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Dry is dry, what a boring pattern. Im on my phone so I cant check but in the last 2 months i'd be surprise if I have seen over 1.5" of rain, let alone an inch. 0.89 here last 48 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 0.89 here last 48 days. NYC since 9-1: Driest falls in NYC (SON) 3.57...2013...so far 4.00...1908 4.67...1909 4.93...1881 4.97...1931 5.02...1879 5.32...1965 5.76...1901 5.77...1941 5.83...1914 5.96...1948 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 0.89 here last 48 days. 3.57...2013...so far - Snowfall following winter NYC 4.00...1908 -- 20.3 4.67...1909 - 27.2 4.93...1881 - 31.4 4.97...1931 - 5.3 5.02...1879 - 22.7 5.32...1965 - 21.4 5.76...1901 - 9.1 5.77...1941 - 11.3 5.83...1914 - 28.8 5.96...1948 - 46.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 3.57...2013...so far - Snowfall following winter NYC 4.00...1908 -- 20.3 4.67...1909 - 27.2 4.93...1881 - 31.4 4.97...1931 - 5.3 5.02...1879 - 22.7 5.32...1965 - 21.4 5.76...1901 - 9.1 5.77...1941 - 11.3 5.83...1914 - 28.8 5.96...1948 - 46.6 The interesting thing is that this fall really doesn't match the 500 mb composite of those earlier dry years. The main area of blocking this fall is further west over Canada to south of Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 the winter precip. after the driest falls...looks like a nice storm track for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 the winter precip. after the driest falls...looks like a nice storm track for us... The gfs and euro continue to look mainly dry trough at least day 7. I cant see this dry pattern lasting much longer into Dec. I think we flip by or before the start of decmber. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 the winter precip. after the driest falls...looks like a nice storm track for us... I was just going to ask if that would bode well for us come the prime winter months. Could setup to be the best time for a boring pattern if mother nature evens itself out going into January/Febuary. Last two winters it was the opposite with early season events then not much to speak of in the remainder of winter. Especially down my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 The gfs and euro continue to look mainly dry trough at least day 7. I cant see this dry pattern lasting much longer into Dec. I think we flip by or before the start of decmber. Agreed, sooner or later it will change, I'm guessing sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 It has been abnormally wet for 40 years...a dry spell was inevitable. It has been abnormally snowy the last 13 years...just as it was unusually snowless during the 1970 -2000 period...these thing run in cycles and tend to even out over the course of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Driest 10 year period was from 1956 to 1965 averaging 36.87"...the wettest 10 year period was 2002-2011 averaging 56.27"... NYC precipitation...NYC decade precipitation averages since 1870.10 yr.............Ave. per year. lowest and highest year1870's..............43.73"........39.25".......51.26"1880's..............43.54"........35.37".......57.16"1890's..............41.84"........35.37".......48.26"1900's..............44.84"........37.44".......58.32"1910's..............44.24"........33.72".......58.00"1920's..............44.92"........37.76".......56.06"1930's..............44.60"........33.85".......53.53"1940's..............42.16"........36.24".......48.51"1950's..............39.59"........35.58".......45.20"1960's..............39.74"........26.09".......48.54"1970's..............52.31"........35.29".......67.03"1980's..............49.96"........38.11".......80.56"1990's..............47.29"........40.42".......60.92"2000's..............53.18"........35.92".......61.70"2010's..............53.56"........38.51".......72.81"1870-2009................45.14"1980-2009................50.14"1870-1969................42.92"1970-2009................50.64"...........................................................................................................................................1826-1864 from Jamiaca N.Y...1865-1868- Central Park...years.................ave..........lowest........highest1826-1835.......37.95"........28.78"........55.67"1836-1845.......36.67"........32.13"........44.57"1846-1855.......39.50"........30.08"........46.40"1856-1865.......41.30"........31.08"........59.68"1866-1869.......48.57"........38.26"........57.40" 4yr av....................................................................................................................................wettest years in Central Park.year.....total precip."1983......80.56"2011......72.81"1972......67.03"1989......65.11"2007......61.70"1975......61.21"1990......60.92"2006......59.90"2003......58.56"1903......58.32"1913......58.00"1973......57.23"1889......57.16"driest yearsyear.......total precip."1965......26.09"1964......32.99"1910......33.72"1935......33.85"1963......34.28"1970......35.29"1885......35.37"1895......35.37"1954......35.58"1892......35.60"..............................Here are the wettest days on record...8.28" on 9/23/1882. 11.83" from 9/21-23.7.56" on 4/15/2007. 8.45" from 4/15-167.40" on 11/8/1977. 9.19" from 11/7-8.7.33" on 10/9/1903. 11.80" from 10/8-10.5.81" on 8/14/20115.60" on 11/8/1972.5.54" on 9/21/1966.5.02" on 9/16/1999.4.98" on 10/1/1913.Wettest storms11.83" 09/21-23/188211.80" 10/08-10/1903..9.19" 11/07-08/1977..8.45" 04/15-16/2007..7.76" 09/13-14/1944..7.01" 10/12-13/2005..6.87" 08/27-28/2011..6.32" 08/12-13/1955...........................................................................................................Here are the wettest months...amount month year...10.10" June 201318.95" August 201110.69" March 201010.06" June 200913.05" April 200716.73" October 200511.51" September 200410.27" June 200312.36" August 199010.24" May 198914.01" April 198310.54" March 198310.41" March 198010.52" January 197912.26" November 197711.77" July 197512.41" November 197210.86" August 195510.30" September 194411.96" September 193410.09" September 193312.97" October 191313.31" October 190311.89" July 188916.85" September 1882 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 It has been abnormally wet for 40 years...a dry spell was inevitable. It has been abnormally snowy the last 13 years...just as it was unusually snowless during the 1970 -2000 period...these thing run in cycles and tend to even out over the course of time. That's a good point and you wonder if we are entering into a more dry pattern longer term overall. Im not so sure that's the case yet. We just missed the heavy rainstorm earlier this fall by 80 miles and had the wettest June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Might have to hang out here more since Philly has been mostly abandoned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Might have to hang out here more since Philly has been mostly abandoned. This is a pretty decent storm thread for a non-event, flurries and light snow cannot be ruled out however. The SNE forum has always had decent discussion and I wish more people knew about it and/or could access it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Might have to hang out here more since Philly has been mostly abandoned. That's what happens when staff members are left out to dry! That long range thread was the most informative thread of this board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 That's what happens when staff members are left out to dry! That long range thread was the most informative thread of this board! Yeah, that thread in particular is pretty dead now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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