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November 2013 Observations & Discussions


Rtd208

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Biggest snowfalls before December 1st...
10.0" 11/26-27/1898
9.5" 11/29/30/1882 est...
8.8" 11/24-25/1938
6.0" 11/30/1898
5.0" 11/29-30/1896
4.7" 11/07-08/2012
4.7" 11/22-23/1989
4.0" 11/29-30/1892
4.0" 11/26-27/1938
3.7" 11/26/1882 est...
3.7" 11/29-30/1945

3.0" 11/24/1898
3.0" 11/30/1967
2.9" 11/30/1995

2.9" 10/29/2011

1898 had three storms on the list... 1882 and 1938 had two storms on the list...1882 had no snow in December and 1898 and 1938 had very little...

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Biggest snowfalls before December 1st...

10.0" 11/26-27/1898

9.5" 11/29/30/1882 est...

8.8" 11/24-25/1938

6.0" 11/30/1898

5.0" 11/29-30/1896

4.7" 11/07-08/2012

4.7" 11/22-23/1989

4.0" 11/29-30/1892

4.0" 11/26-27/1938

3.7" 11/26/1882 est...

3.7" 11/29-30/1945

3.0" 11/24/1898

3.0" 11/30/1967

2.9" 11/30/1995

2.9" 10/29/2011

1898 had three storms on the list... 1882 and 1938 had two storms on the list...1882 had no snow in December and 1898 and 1938 had very little...

 

Interesting thing is that 1898-99 featured a Negative Neutral ENSO. 

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Staying around 48F for now, a bit cooler than the low 50s forecast and mostly cloudy. 

 

Quick thought. How are we going to do in the temperature departure department. Things look generally below to well below normal for at least a week if not longer starting today. Next week we could be pulling more than one -10 to -12 departure or even greater. Of course what happens after is yet to fully be determined though a warming trend is arguably favored but I didn't expect things to trend this cool for mid November. 

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It will be interesting to see if the mid to late part of the month stays dry enough for NYC to finish with  a top 10 driest fall.


The dates on the list were a very long time ago.


 


Driest falls in NYC (SON)


 


3.57...2013...so far


4.00...1908


4.67...1909


4.93...1881


4.97...1931


5.02...1879


5.32...1965


5.76...1901


5.77...1941


5.83...1914


5.96...1948


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They city will def go below frz next week. The cold ishot is very impressive

Clearly something changed since as of 10/30 the CMC_NCEP ensembles indicated a most likely THK of 5480m for 11/12-13 period but now shows the most likely THK to be 5220m, good for a solid 20 degree 2m T difference.   It only started to change 4 days ago.    The culprit is probably stratospheric warming proceeding faster than originally predicted.

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0.89 here last 48 days.

 

3.57...2013...so far   - Snowfall following winter NYC

4.00...1908             -- 20.3

4.67...1909             -  27.2

4.93...1881             -  31.4

4.97...1931             -   5.3

5.02...1879             -  22.7

5.32...1965             -  21.4

5.76...1901             -    9.1

5.77...1941             -  11.3

5.83...1914             -  28.8

5.96...1948             -  46.6

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3.57...2013...so far   - Snowfall following winter NYC

4.00...1908             -- 20.3

4.67...1909             -  27.2

4.93...1881             -  31.4

4.97...1931             -   5.3

5.02...1879             -  22.7

5.32...1965             -  21.4

5.76...1901             -    9.1

5.77...1941             -  11.3

5.83...1914             -  28.8

5.96...1948             -  46.6

 

 

The interesting thing is that this fall really doesn't match the 500 mb composite of those earlier dry years. The main area

of blocking this fall is further west over Canada to south of Alaska.

 

 

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the winter precip. after the driest falls...looks like a nice storm track for us...

 

 

The gfs and euro continue to look mainly dry trough at least day 7.  I cant see this dry pattern lasting much longer into Dec.  I think we flip by or before the start of decmber. 

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the winter precip. after the driest falls...looks like a nice storm track for us...

 

 

I was just going to ask if that would bode well for us come the prime winter months. Could setup to be the best time for a boring pattern if mother nature evens itself out going into January/Febuary. Last two winters it was the opposite with early season events then not much to speak of in the remainder of winter. Especially down my way. 

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It has been abnormally wet for 40 years...a dry spell was inevitable.

 

It has been abnormally snowy the last 13 years...just as it was unusually snowless during the 1970 -2000 period...these thing run in cycles and tend to even out over the course of time. 

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Driest 10 year period was from 1956 to 1965 averaging 36.87"...the wettest 10 year period was 2002-2011 averaging 56.27"...

NYC precipitation...
NYC decade precipitation averages since 1870.
10 yr.............Ave. per year. lowest and highest year
1870's..............43.73"........39.25".......51.26"
1880's..............43.54"........35.37".......57.16"
1890's..............41.84"........35.37".......48.26"
1900's..............44.84"........37.44".......58.32"
1910's..............44.24"........33.72".......58.00"
1920's..............44.92"........37.76".......56.06"
1930's..............44.60"........33.85".......53.53"
1940's..............42.16"........36.24".......48.51"
1950's..............39.59"........35.58".......45.20"
1960's..............39.74"........26.09".......48.54"
1970's..............52.31"........35.29".......67.03"
1980's..............49.96"........38.11".......80.56"
1990's..............47.29"........40.42".......60.92"
2000's..............53.18"........35.92".......61.70"

2010's..............53.56"........38.51".......72.81"
1870-
2009................45.14"
1980-
2009................50.14"
1870-
1969................42.92"
1970-
2009................50.64"

...........................................................................................................................................
1826-1864 from Jamiaca N.Y...1865-1868- Central Park...
years.................ave..........lowest........highest
1826-1835.......37.95"........28.78"........55.67"
1836-1845.......36.67"........32.13"........44.57"
1846-1855.......39.50"........30.08"........46.40"
1856-1865.......41.30"........31.08"........59.68"
1866-1869.......48.57"........38.26"........57.40" 4yr av
....................................................................................................................................
wettest years in Central Park.
year.....total precip."

1983......80.56"
2011......72.81"
1972......67.03"
1989......65.11"
2007......61.70"
1975......61.21"
1990......60.92"
2006......59.90"
2003......58.56"
1903......58.32"
1913......58.00"
1973......57.23"
1889......57.16"

driest years
year.......total precip."

1965......26.09"
1964......32.99"
1910......33.72"
1935......33.85"
1963......34.28"
1970......35.29"
1885......35.37"
1895......35.37"
1954......35.58"
1892......35.60"
..............................
Here are the wettest days on record...
8.28" on 9/23/1882. 11.83" from 9/21-23.
7.56" on 4/15/2007. 8.45" from 4/15-16
7.40" on 11/8/1977. 9.19" from 11/7-8.
7.33" on 10/9/1903. 11.80" from 10/8-10.
5.81" on 8/14/2011
5.60" on 11/8/1972.
5.54" on 9/21/1966.
5.02" on 9/16/1999.
4.98" on 10/1/1913.

Wettest storms
11.83" 09/21-23/1882
11.80" 10/08-10/1903
..9.19" 11/07-08/1977
..8.45" 04/15-16/2007
..7.76" 09/13-14/1944
..7.01" 10/12-13/2005
..6.87" 08/27-28/2011
..6.32" 08/12-13/1955
........................................................................................................
...Here are the wettest months...
amount month year...
10.10" June 2013
18.95" August 2011
10.69" March 2010
10.06" June 2009
13.05" April 2007
16.73" October 2005
11.51" September 2004
10.27" June 2003
12.36" August 1990
10.24" May 1989
14.01" April 1983
10.54" March 1983
10.41" March 1980
10.52" January 1979
12.26" November 1977
11.77" July 1975
12.41" November 1972
10.86" August 1955
10.30" September 1944
11.96" September 1934
10.09" September 1933
12.97" October 1913
13.31" October 1903
11.89" July 1889
16.85" September 1882

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It has been abnormally wet for 40 years...a dry spell was inevitable.

 

It has been abnormally snowy the last 13 years...just as it was unusually snowless during the 1970 -2000 period...these thing run in cycles and tend to even out over the course of time. 

 

 

That's a good point and you wonder if we are entering into a more dry pattern longer term overall.  Im not so sure that's the case yet.  We just missed the heavy rainstorm earlier this fall by 80 miles and had the wettest June.

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