mob1 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Quite a few hits with this storm now with the 18z GEFS. There's one member that looks like it's completely out to lunch. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html Lol, is that a sub 970 low? It's hard to see on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Things look a little slower this time around, the vort is also digging more and the high is stronger @132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Based on rh/vvel's and 500mb look this thing is gonna be big on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Quite large improvements already at H5. We're going to be hurt by the lack of cold air though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 That 500mb evolution is pretty nice. It seems the cold air took a more north to south pathway though as opposed to NW to SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Much slower at 156, vort really digging, 850 line is almost into Mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Crushing blizzard for West Virginia and really much of the interior Mid-Atlantic and southern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 By 174 500mb is cut off but there really isn't as much surface reflection as you'd expected as the trough hasn't tilted neg yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Secondary pops at hr 183. Mid Atlantic precip bomb. PA too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Secondary pops at hr 183. Mid Atlantic precip bomb. PA too. Yea, I think the gfs is having some issues with all the energy this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 the evolution is very slow and the 500mb low cuts off too soon and goes negative too far west for any frozen precip for us. Big storm though for sure. That kicker coming in behind it suggests this shouldn't have wrapped up so far west but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Coastal completely taking over by 204. Heavy rain for all of us. Historic snowstorm for Pitt and western PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Cold air rots and is replaced by easterly flow off warm Atlantic. We needed that cold air source much closer to have any chance at frozen. Regardless certainly a storm signal showing up hopefully this gets us out of our dry period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Over 5" liquid for Western PA and MD and extreme northern PA. Clown maps showing 12-24" out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Euro looks cold and has snow creeping up to our doorstep 1am Thursday morning. Temps below freezing NYC westward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Sorry guys working nights in the ICU and bored as hell am you gotta put up with my updates (if anybody is actually awake??) Euro shows sub 1004 low 75 miles east of cape may. 850's off LI freezing line just NW of NYC 192 sub 1000 low making landfall on central LI. 850's And freezing line close to each other near or just east of NYC (freezing and 850 separated by 20 or so miles) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Sorry guys working nights in the ICU and bored as hell am you gotta put up with my updates (if anybody is actually awake??) Euro shows sub 1004 low 75 miles east of cape may. 850's off LI freezing line just NW of NYC 192 sub 1000 low making landfall on central LI. 850's And freezing line close to each other near or just east of NYC (freezing and 850 separated by 20 or so miles) Keep them coming bro. Feels good to be tracking something again regardless if its 7 days out or a pipe dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 198 850s and freezing line collapse back towards coast. Mod snow ending nyc and northwest. By this point, areas that remained all snow have roughly 2in LIquid equivalent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Keep them coming bro. Feels good to be tracking something again regardless if its 7 days out or a pipe dream My thoughts exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 It's a pretty awesome solution and would yield some pretty hefty snow totals for just inland locations all the way into upstate Ny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Any would verbatim be at least 6in of heavy wet snow for western half of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 FYI euro snow maps are epic. They depict probably one of the most widespread and heavy early season snowstorms the NE/mid Atlantic has ever seen (not exaggerating) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 0z Euro at 192hrs. 994.6mb low just east of Asbury Park. 850mb 0C line just of west of NYC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 0z Euro at 192hrs. 994.6mb low just east of Asbury Park. 850mb 0C line just of west of NYC: Yea if the storm went a little more east the coast would be in the thick of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 0z Euro snowmap has over 12 inches for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Back in the thick of it. Looking forward to a season of tracking. Many are going to wake up to the Euro and be wholly perplexed. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 0z Euro at 192hrs. 994.6mb low just east of Asbury Park. 850mb 0C line just of west of NYC: Oh my... Thats a recipe for a crippling snowstorm for these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Yea if the storm went a little more east the coast would be in the thick of it. Wow. What an incredible solution! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I think its time for the potential storm to have its own thread...I am going to create one now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 If we do happen to get >5" of snow this month in Central Park, I should show you the Novembers that had that much and the following winter seasons. Novembers with >5" of snow 1882 - 14" 1892 - 6.3" 1896 - 5" 1898 - 19" 1938 - 12.8" As for 3 - 4.9" of snow for November 1872 - 3.5" 1936 - 3.2" 1945 - 3.7" 1967 - 3.2" 1989 - 4.7" 2012 - 4.7" Corresponding Winters for Novembers with >5" of snow 1882-83 - 44" 1892-93 - 49.7" 1896-97 - 43.6" 1898-99 - 55.9" 1938-39 - 37.3" Based on the 1981-2010 NOAA Snowfall Average (5/5 Winters are Above Average) Corresponding Winters for Novembers with 3 - 4.9" of snow 1872-73 - 60.3" 1936-37 - 15.6" 1945-46 - 31.4" 1967-68 - 19.5" 1989-90 - 13.4" 2012-13 - 26.1" Based on the 1981-2010 NOAA Snowfall Average 2/6 Winters are (Above Average) 1/6 Winters are (Near Average) 3/6 Winters are (Below Average) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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