atownwxwatcher Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 With the heights pumping out ahead of the storm system as modeled this has no choice but to cut to the lakes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 On 11/18/2013 at 6:58 PM, atownwxwatcher said: With the heights pumping out ahead of the storm system as modeled this has no choice but to cut to the lakes... Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_216 (1).gif +AO pattern shown, also supports a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I do love seeing all that western ridging with a ton of cold air in Canada. If we do get blocking periods, then we'll see some very cold air likely drop down to our area with a chance at a storm or two. I still would like to see us get more precipitation though, even if it's rain. The NAO and AO both look a bit sketchy once they neutralize. We'll have to see if they stay neutral, go up again, or really turn negative. There are more signs that the NAO could be heading in a negative direction as we approach December. I don't see anything right now that favors a coastal system and I'm definitely siding with the cutter solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I am not seeing how we loose the ++AO anytime soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 To be clear, the 12z Euro shows a cutter redeveloping into a miller B coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 On 11/18/2013 at 7:27 PM, YanksFan27 said: To be clear, the 12z Euro shows a cutter redeveloping into a miller B coastal. We need it to transfer quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 On 11/18/2013 at 7:39 PM, Snow88 said: We need it to transfer quicker. Agreed, it's going to change again anyway, just happy to see the guidance maintain an organized storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Ideally we would like the -NAO to be further west over Greenland than what this shows, but it's an improvement from the pattern we've been experiencing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 On 11/18/2013 at 7:19 PM, jetski09 said: I do love seeing all that western ridging with a ton of cold air in Canada. If we do get blocking periods, then we'll see some very cold air likely drop down to our area with a chance at a storm or two. I still would like to see us get more precipitation though, even if it's rain. The NAO and AO both look a bit sketchy once they neutralize. We'll have to see if they stay neutral, go up again, or really turn negative. There are more signs that the NAO could be heading in a negative direction as we approach December. I don't see anything right now that favors a coastal system and I'm definitely siding with the cutter solution. We need any block to set up over Greenland or Baffin Bay. The blocks over Iceland do nothing for us, and aren't close enough to stop a SE Ridge that pumps up in time for any storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 On 11/18/2013 at 7:19 PM, ADKweather27 said: I am not seeing how we loose the ++AO anytime soon The record breaking -AO in March was the turning point this year when we shifted to a more positive regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 On 11/18/2013 at 8:03 PM, jm1220 said: We need any block to set up over Greenland or Baffin Bay. The blocks over Iceland do nothing for us, and aren't close enough to stop a SE Ridge that pumps up in time for any storm. I actually don't think this would be a bad pattern if we moved ahead a few weeks. The NAO doesn't have to be ideal and it doesn't even have to be negative for us to get a storm. It looks like a split flow pattern, which could provide plenty of SWFE later on in December and especially Jan and Feb as the cold air presses down over the northern tier. I still favor more SWFE's over coastal storms this season because I don't believe the blocking will be ideal but I think western ridging is here to stay and I'm leaning toward the -EPO being a mainstay. I think a less extreme 1993-1994 winter is possible with the AO and NAO probably leaning neutral or slightly positive, so we're going to thread the needle a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Sub tropical Melissa should cause the nao to go negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 On 11/18/2013 at 8:24 PM, ORH_wxman said: Euro ensembles definitely still hint at the Wednesday/Thanksgiving threat...but reminders that it is still 9-10 days out. But as far as ensemble signals for that time period, its pretty good. They are quite bullish on the cold early next week too. About -14C to the pike...not bad for an ensemble mean a week out. The SWFE preceding that is there on the ensembles as well, but its a pretty decent spread...anything from a St. Lawrence valley cutter to stay to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 FWIW the 12z CMC Canadian ensemble mean is pretty gung ho for the Thanksgiving week storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 On 11/18/2013 at 8:51 PM, YanksFan27 said: FWIW the 12z CMC Canadian ensemble mean is pretty gung ho for the Thanksgiving week storm as well. sorry what is gung ho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 On 11/18/2013 at 8:55 PM, David-LI said: sorry what is gung ho? It's decently wet and colder than the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 On 11/18/2013 at 6:50 PM, YanksFan27 said: Hour 216 high pressure anchored east of Maine. Low towards Kentucky with redevelopment already occurring not to cause an argument here but a hP "anchored" east of Maine is not a good thing in January not to mention November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 On 11/18/2013 at 9:14 PM, ace0927 said: not to cause an argument here but a hP "anchored" east of Maine is not a good thing in January not to mention November. Well it's a sign of some blocking and will be needed in order to prevent this from sliding OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 On 11/18/2013 at 9:18 PM, YanksFan27 said: Well it's a sign of some blocking and will be needed in order to prevent this from sliding OTS. A surface high isn't a block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 On 11/18/2013 at 9:26 PM, famartin said: A surface high isn't a block. I didn't say it was, but the fact that it's staying put and not sliding OTS is a sign of some blocking, of course it's just an amateur observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 On 11/18/2013 at 9:32 PM, YanksFan27 said: I didn't say it was, but the fact that it's staying put and not sliding OTS is a sign of some blocking, of course it's just an amateur observation. No, you said it was a sign of blocking which is wrong and it is sliding to our east/out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 On 11/18/2013 at 9:32 PM, YanksFan27 said: I didn't say it was, but the fact that it's staying put and not sliding OTS is a sign of some blocking, of course it's just an amateur observation. On 11/18/2013 at 9:18 PM, YanksFan27 said: Well it's a sign of some blocking and will be needed in order to prevent this from sliding OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 On 11/18/2013 at 9:14 PM, ace0927 said: not to cause an argument here but a hP "anchored" east of Maine is not a good thing in January not to mention November. thank you. Was thinking the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 A strong cold shot but it moves in and out quickly on the 18z gfs, which fits the pattern we've been in. We'll probably alternate between warm and cold, but could average slightly below which is a good sign heading into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 On 11/18/2013 at 10:11 PM, Allsnow said: There's really nothing here just yet preventing anything from sliding out to sea. Quite to the contrary, there is a kicker in the northern stream and that's why the high slides east of Maine, the storm to the south will probably move e-ne well out to sea well south of us, and the next system to affect us will probably be the northern stream kicker itself followed by yet another shot of cold air (around Dec 1st), colder than the first shot (this weekend). On that note, I'm going to grab some gung ho at Hop Kee with my sum yung gai. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 00z GFS brought back the T-Day storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 On 11/19/2013 at 4:54 AM, YanksFan27 said: 00z GFS brought back the T-Day storm If you like a weak wave of low pressure with some rainfall... I would not exactly call that a storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Long range gfs hour 312, 1.00 qpf 850s south of Long Island whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 On 11/19/2013 at 5:02 AM, atownwxwatcher said: If you like a weak wave of low pressure with some rainfall... I would not exactly call that a storm...That's not true at all, it's a large storm and right now all that matters is that it still exists. Why do people feel the need to tear apart every post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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