Rtd208 Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 November observations and discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Looking further down the road through the 1st week of November 2013 the 6Z GFS is really going along with the AO and the NAO forecast of positive values through that period with a flat PNA = Near to possibly above normal temps the 1st week of the month and the drought forecasted to continue GFS http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR NAO http://www.cpc.ncep....a/nao.sprd2.gif AO http://www.cpc.ncep....ex/ao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 November stats... November1971-2000 normals...Temperature...47.1...Precipitation...4.36"...Snowfall...0.4"Average temperature...decade....Ave.t.....High.....low....ave.max/min...max...min...rainfall...snowfall...1870's.....42.2.....45.5.....37.0...........................76.......7.....3.66".....0.9"1880's.....43.2.....45.5.....38.7.....67.3.....21.2.....71.....13.....3.54".....1.8"1890's.....45.1.....49.9.....41.5.....66.7.....24.1.....72.....14.....3.76".....3.3"1900's.....45.7.....51.6.....39.7.....65.8.....26.6.....74.....19.....1.91".....0.3"1910's.....45.0.....47.8.....41.6.....69.5.....26.7.....76.....19.....2.90".....0.2"1920's.....45.6.....49.2.....43.9.....70.0.....24.1.....76.....12.....2.65".....0.1"1930's.....46.2.....51.9.....41.8.....70.4.....21.4.....78.....12.....3.05".....2.2"1940's.....47.5.....52.4.....44.2.....70.4.....27.5.....74.....23.....3.59".....0.6"1950's.....47.1.....49.7.....43.5.....70.5.....24.5.....84.....16.....3.80".....0.5"1960's.....47.3.....50.4.....42.5.....69.9.....28.7.....78.....20.....3.73".....0.3"1970's.....47.6.....52.5.....41.7.....71.5.....25.7.....81.....17.....4.91".....0.3"1980's.....47.7.....50.4.....44.6.....72.4.....26.9.....79.....18.....4.97".....0.6"1990's.....47.6.....52.0.....43.0.....72.0.....27.7.....80.....23.....3.41".....0.3"2000's.....48.6.....52.7.....45.3.....70.0.....28.0.....79.....22.....3.77".....trace2010's.....47.9.....51.9.....43.9.....71.3.....33.0.....74.....31.....2.33".....1.6"1870-2009........46.2...........................69.7.....25.6......................3.55".....0.8"1980-2009........48.0...........................71.5.....27.5......................4.05".....0.3"Warmest Novembers...52.7 in 200152.5 in 197952.4 in 194852.3 in 197551.9 in 201151.9 in 200651.9 in 199451.9 in 193151.5 in 190251.1 in 200950.8 in 1999Coldest...37.0 in 187338.8 in 187138.9 in 188039.0 in 188239.3 in 187539.7 in 190140.3 in 1869wettest...12.41" in 197212.26" in 19779.97" in 18898.90" in 19888.24" in 19638.09" in 19857.38" in 1932Driest...0.34" in 19760.60" in 19310.71" in 19080.71" in 18900.86" in 19170.90" in 1933Highest Temperatures...84 11/01/195083 11/02/195081 11/01/197480 11/15/199379 11/02/198279 11/03/200378 11/07/193878 11/05/196178 11/04/197578 11/03/1990Coldest temperatures..._7 11/30/187511 11/30/187212 11/27/193212 11/30/192913 11/22/188014 11/23/188014 11/24/188014 11/29/1875Lowest monthly max...60 in 187860 in 189360 in 190160 in 190461 in 197661 in 194761 in 190761 in 1884Highest monthly min...36 in 201136 in 199835 in 200635 in 200934 in 190234 in 196334 in 197534 in 200134 in 201033 in 190733 in 194833 in 1985Greatest monthly snowfall...19.0" in 189814.0" in 188212.8" in 1938_6.3" in 1892_5.0" in 1896Biggest snowfalls...10.0" 11/26-27/18989.5" 11/29/30/1882 est...8.8" 11/24-25/19386.0" 11/30/18985.0" 11/29-30/18964.7" 11/07-08/20124.7" 11/22-23/19894.0" 11/29-30/18924.0" 11/26-27/19383.7" 11/26/1882 est...3.7" 11/29-30/19453.0" 11/30/19672.9" 11/30/1995 .............................................. wettest storms for November... ...amount...year...dates 9.19"..........1977 11/7-8 5.60"..........1972 11/8 4.23"..........1963 11/6-7 3.75"..........1889 11/8-9 3.62"..........2006 11/7-8 3.38"..........1988 11/19-20 3.37"..........1910 11/3-4 3.19"..........1892 11/15-16 3.09"..........1889 11/27-28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Plenty of good years on the analog package today (assuming that progression holds of course).This pattern rolled forward 6 weeks from now would feature more suppression of the SE ridge due to the seasonal southward propagation of the jet, but NYC would probably be riding the fence with a negative EPO, positive NAO.http://www.cpc.ncep....4analog.off.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 November will come in cold with a well positioned high to get cold air drainage down the Hudson Valley to NYC. NYC Should see its closest to freezing reading so far this fall with lows in the 32-34 range Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 ... High wind watch remains in effect from late tonight throughFriday afternoon... * locations... southeast Connecticut and eastern Long Island.* Hazards... possible damaging winds.* Winds... southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph... possibly 60 mph.* Timing... winds increase tonight... with the strongest winds expected Friday morning into the early afternoon.* Impacts... strong southerly winds may down trees and power lines... resulting in scattered power outages. The strong winds may also make for difficult driving for high profile vehicles.Precautionary/preparedness actions... A high wind watch means there is the potential for a hazardoushigh wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph... or gusts of58 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor the latestforecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 November precipitation before our snowiest winters and least snowiest winters...You can see the difference in storm tracks...The least snowiest have an inland track while the snowiest are along the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 It looks like the pattern will start to change just before Thanksgiving which is the 28th this year with a -NAO and posssibly -AO and +PNA developing along with a -EPO . Its a good sign that the west has had the -PNA and cold pattern the last few weeks - as many times the pattern flips and good chance this year will see that flip just in time for December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 November precipitation before our snowiest winters and least snowiest winters...You can see the difference in storm tracks...The least snowiest have an inland track while the snowiest are along the coast... This is a very good display. At first glance, it would unfortunately appear as though most of this November will probably feature a pattern closer to the least snowy winters. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 It looks like the pattern will start to change just before Thanksgiving which is the 28th this year with a -NAO and posssibly -AO and +PNA developing along with a -EPO . Its a good sign that the west has had the -PNA and cold pattern the last few weeks - as many times the pattern flips and good chance this year will see that flip just in time for December... Any data to back that up? Any NAO/AO forecast that far out is very sketchy and there's no guarantee we flip at all. In fact if this month plays out as models forecast it to, then we would fall victim to the analogs that favor the least snowiest winters. It looks mostly warm and dry to me with mainly GL cutters. Even going through 384 hrs of fantasy mode runs maintain a strong SE ridge right now. You did say Thanksgiving so I don't know how things will be by then, but at this point it's just wishful thinking unless there's concrete data to back it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Yes I do have data - if you can go to JB's twitter page he posted on Oct 30th a graphic of the NCEP 06Z CFSV2 - Temperature Graphic for Dec 1 - Dec 14th and you can see the deep trough in the east and ridge out west . Definite sign of -AO -NA0 + PNA pattern. Also looking at the NAO pattern the last few months - it stays mainly positive for a month and then negative for a month and right now we are in a positive stage which we entered a few days ago. So a flip back to negative toward the end of November seems like a good bet right now ..And of course many folks here have been talking about for a while the -EPO expected. If you have evidence of a mild pattern for December please post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Yes I do have data - if you can go to JB's twitter page he posted on Oct 30th a graphic of the NCEP 06Z CFSV2 - Temperature Graphic for Dec 1 - Dec 14th and you can see the deep trough in the east and ridge out west . Definite sign of -AO -NA0 + PNA pattern. Also looking at the NAO pattern the last few months - it stays mainly positive for a month and then negative for a month and right now we are in a positive stage which we entered a few days ago. So a flip back to negative toward the end of November seems like a good bet right now ..And of course many folks here have been talking about for a while the -EPO expected. If you have evidence of a mild pattern for December please post it. Not surprised he would post that, but I see. I would argue that the NAO could be more variable, which is good for stormy weather. I don't know if the entire pattern will flip to cold by December, but if we do see a semblance of the -EPO hanging on then I could see shots of cold air interspersed with warmer periods even with a +NAO/AO. Since the jet will naturally progress further south as we get closer to winter and Canada will stay cold then we will see some cold air intrusions. I'm thinking if the pattern stays the way it is, then December will probably average above normal, but progress colder as the month goes on (battle between cold air pressing south and SE ridging) and January and February could skew colder than normal if the -EPO regime stays in tact this winter (-EPO keeps Canada cold, jet stream naturally progresses further south keeping SE ridging further south). If the NAO does go negative occasionally, then things will improve greatly for snow chances. Again I'm looking at the EPO as to whether we get a horrible winter or an okay winter. I don't think we'll see a snowy, cold winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Not surprised he would post that, but I see. I would argue that the NAO could be more variable, which is good for stormy weather. I don't know if the entire pattern will flip to cold by December, but if we do see a semblance of the -EPO hanging on then I could see shots of cold air interspersed with warmer periods even with a +NAO/AO. Since the jet will naturally progress further south as we get closer to winter and Canada will stay cold then we will see some cold air intrusions. I'm thinking if the pattern stays the way it is, then December will probably average above normal, but progress colder as the month goes on (battle between cold air pressing south and SE ridging) and January and February could skew colder than normal if the -EPO regime stays in tact this winter (-EPO keeps Canada cold, jet stream naturally progresses further south keeping SE ridging further south). If the NAO does go negative occasionally, then things will improve greatly for snow chances. Again I'm looking at the EPO as to whether we get a horrible winter or an okay winter. I don't think we'll see a snowy, cold winter. Often times what's happening in November correlates very closely with what follows. I get a strong feeling now, that the odds favor a winter here that will disappoint most of us. If you're going to move toward a +PNA/-NAO pattern that will produce major winter storms or severe cold, usually there are hints of it within 384 hours on the GFS even if it gets delayed well beyond that time-frame. What it means when you see that, is that the pattern change is within the realm of possibility. We are not even seeing that, really not even seeing close to that. I could see a pattern where we have periods of a negative NAO, and during those times too much blocking with a storm track across the deep south and out to sea, then NAO goes positive and the easten half of the CONUS is flooded with warmer air. WX/PT WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Here is an updated AO outlook - as we get deeper into November the AO shows a steep decline http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 I really, really like the week prior to Thanksgiving for a major event along the east coast. The western Atlantic ridge looks to be moving into a favorable spot for active weather in our area. I'm not completely ready to put a fork in the tropics yet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Tail end of the 12z GFS run today is exactly what i'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 This is a very good display. At first glance, it would unfortunately appear as though most of this November will probably feature a pattern closer to the least snowy winters. WX/PT this was Octobers precip map...Not encouraging but it could change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Congratulations! You've discovered El Nino! November precipitation before our snowiest winters and least snowiest winters...You can see the difference in storm tracks...The least snowiest have an inland track while the snowiest are along the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 I know it's fantasy range but the GFS has been very consistent on a storm signal sometime after the 15th of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 That's 372 hrs away! Stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 That's 372 hrs away! Stop You obviously haven't read any of my posts today. This is just backing up what I've been saying all morning. And, it's not like I didn't say it was pure fantasy range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 As we progress into November the latest guidance continues to show a warm up between fronts/troughs 10/30 - 11/1/. Beyond there - the ecm and gfs dig a trough into the east with another shot of some chilly air later next weekend. This next shot of cool (11/2 - 11/4 or 5) looks more transient with another trough pushing into the west coast forcing ridging east. We'll see where the 12z guidance takes us but the early part of November looks like it may be a back and forth between cold shots and warmer weather averaging near normal. Temps could reach or exceed 70 next thu or fri, perhaps for Halloween. As far a rain the next shot for meaningful precip would be with the front around 11/1 into next weekend. Translation: Temps could reach or exceed the low to mid 60's.... Todays highs (11/1) TTN: 70 NYC: 70 EWR: 71 LGA: 70 JFK: 69 New Brunswick: 71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Precip 31 / 1st NYC: 0.19 EWR: 0.21 LGA: 0.10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Precip 31 / 1st NYC: 0.19 EWR: 0.21 LGA: 0.10 More of the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 More of the same. 20131029_ny_none.png gfs has less than 0.20 over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 gfs has less than 0.20 over the next week. It will be interesting to see if the mid to late part of the month stays dry enough for NYC to finish with a top 10 driest fall. The dates on the list were a very long time ago. Driest falls in NYC 3.50...2013...so far 4.00...1908 4.67...1909 4.93...1881 4.97...1931 5.02...1879 5.32...1965 5.76...1901 5.77...1941 5.83...1914 5.96...1948 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Todays highs (11/1) TTN: 70 NYC: 70 EWR: 71 LGA: 70 JFK: 69 New Brunswick: 71 I was going to notate that you were in fact correct and I was dead wrong...but you beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 I was going to notate that you were in fact correct and I was dead wrong...but you beat me to it. I didn't think we would reach 70, saw the potential but thought similar to yesterday that clouds would hinder the 70 readings. Getting too dry out there and still wonder when the switch will flip to very wet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 It will be interesting to see if the mid to late part of the month stays dry enough for NYC to finish with a top 10 driest fall. The dates on the list were a very long time ago. Driest falls in NYC 3.50...2013...so far 4.00...1908 4.67...1909 4.93...1881 4.97...1931 5.02...1879 5.32...1965 5.76...1901 5.77...1941 5.83...1914 5.96...1948 Is that sep/oct/nov or astronomical autumn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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