tornadotony Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Yeah, part of the SVR watch coming out may very well have to get upgraded to a TOR watch later this evening. Storm near Hereford about to split. Or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Or not. Yeah, I really thought those storms would at least be threatening from about 6-9pm. AMA sounding was impressive, but a slight warm nose at H7 that reduced local buoyancy to near zero might have been the culprit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Not sold at all on any severe weather south of the Red River on Wednesday/Thursday. Advection of a deep tropical airmass from the Caribbean will lead to near max recorded PWs across Texas for this time of year. Even with pretty good dynamics, a deep moist atmosphere with a high 0*C isotherm and skinny CAPE will help mitigate any hail threat, and the lack of any dry layer limits the threat for damaging winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 The 0Z 4KM NAM brings a supercell right up the I-44 corridor on Wednesday from west of OKC at 0Z into TUL by 03Z. I'm not sure folks here could handle something like that after this year. Heck, I don't think I could handle chasing in the metro. I had enough of that on 5/31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Not sold at all on any severe weather south of the Red River on Wednesday/Thursday. Advection of a deep tropical airmass from the Caribbean will lead to near max recorded PWs across Texas for this time of year. Even with pretty good dynamics, a deep moist atmosphere with a high 0*C isotherm and skinny CAPE will help mitigate any hail threat, and the lack of any dry layer limits the threat for damaging winds. True, Texas may not have to deal with severe convective weather, just severe flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 29, 2013 Author Share Posted October 29, 2013 The 0Z 4KM NAM brings a supercell right up the I-44 corridor on Wednesday from west of OKC at 0Z into TUL by 03Z. I'm not sure folks here could handle something like that after this year. Heck, I don't think I could handle chasing in the metro. I had enough of that on 5/31. Yeah I saw that earlier, that would be one cruel joke to play on the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 The 0Z 4KM NAM brings a supercell right up the I-44 corridor on Wednesday from west of OKC at 0Z into TUL by 03Z. I'm not sure folks here could handle something like that after this year. Heck, I don't think I could handle chasing in the metro. I had enough of that on 5/31. ehhh these systems are pretty fragile as it is, this time of year that seems to be especially true... I'll wait until this afternoon or early evening before making any calls, but that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Yeah I saw that earlier, that would be one cruel joke to play on the metro. It looked like kind of a generalized thunderstorm. You are talking about this 00z 4km NAM, right? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4SC_0z/rad51.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 7-day precip from WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Picked up around 2.86" of rain here today, with a lot more on the way. Hoping for no severe weather tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 SPC has added a 5% tornado threat area in E Texas for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 New severe thunderstorm watch out for southern KS and western OK for hail up to 3", 80mph winds and a few tornadoes. DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG SHALLOW SW-NESTNRY/COLD FRONT OVER NW OK/S CNTRL-E CNTRL KS. THIS BOUNDARY LIKELYWILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS LOW-LVL UPLIFT/STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGHMID-EVE. WHILE INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELYDIURNALLY-DRIVEN...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY INCREASE OVER TIME BYCONTINUED NEWD ADVANCE OF DISTURBANCES NOW IN NM/CO IN FAST /120 KTAT 250 MB/ SW FLOW ALOFT.WHILE DEEP/STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD ABOVE THE LOWEST LAYERSAPPEARS MOST FAVORABLE FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL...THEENVIRONMENT ALSO COULD POSE A RISK FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER SCNTRL KS AND NW/N CNTRL OK. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BEMONITORED. IF IT APPEARS THAT STORMS ALSO WILL ARISE AWAY FROMLINEAR FORCING OF THE FRONT...PARTS OF KS AND OK MAY REQUIRE UPGRADETO A TORNADO WW LATER THIS AFTN OR EVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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