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November 2013 General Discussion


Geos

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
801 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 /901 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013/

..COLDEST EARLY NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES SINCE 1996 LIKELY TUESDAY

A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
USHER IN AN AIR MASS WITH A NORTHERN CANADA ORIGIN FOR MIDWEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE LOWER
30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 30 IN ROCKFORD AND 32 IN
CHICAGO. FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER STANDARDS...THAT IS CHILLY
AIR!

IF THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WERE TO PAN
OUT...THESE WOULD BE THE COOLEST HIGHS IN THE FIRST HALF OF
NOVEMBER...OR EARLIER IN THE SEASON...SINCE 1996 FOR BOTH
ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO.

THAT COLD AIR OUTBREAK OF 1996 ON THE SAME WEEK...VETERANS DAY
WEEK...WAS OF A MUCH LONGER DURATION THAN WILL BE THIS UPCOMING
ONE. THAT EPISODE BROUGHT BOTH CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD FIVE
CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HIGHS 33 OR COLDER FROM NOVEMBER 10TH-14TH.
ROCKFORD GOT AS COLD AS 10 AT NIGHT AND CHICAGO DROPPED TO 17.

FOR MORE OF A PERSPECTIVE...SPECIFICALLY LOOKING AT
ROCKFORD...HIGHS OF 30 OR LOWER DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER
HAVE OCCURRED ON LESS THAN THREE PERCENT OF ALL THE DAYS IN THE 107
YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD...SO QUITE RARE.

LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS ARE FORECAST IN
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN OUTLYING AREAS...TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
INTO CHICAGO. THESE WOULD BE THE COOLEST NIGHTTIME LOWS BEFORE THE
MIDPOINT OF NOVEMBER SINCE NOVEMBER 3RD 2006 WHEN 16 WAS OBSERVED
IN ROCKFORD AND 21 IN CHICAGO.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE BACK GRADUALLY THROUGH THE 40S FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SO OVERALL JUST A BRIEF COLD SNAP BUT
A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT ONE FOR THIS EARLY IN THE MONTH! 
 

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Well, I have spent a great couple of days in your awesome city, Chicago folk. Beautiful weather, other than the wind. It sure got nippy on Michigan Ave. when the sun went in! I am not a city guy at all, but I LOVE every time I come to Chicago. I have been here enough times and love the people, that in some ways, it is like a "second home".

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

801 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 /901 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013/

..COLDEST EARLY NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES SINCE 1996 LIKELY TUESDAY

A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND

USHER IN AN AIR MASS WITH A NORTHERN CANADA ORIGIN FOR MIDWEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE LOWER

30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 30 IN ROCKFORD AND 32 IN

CHICAGO. FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER STANDARDS...THAT IS CHILLY

AIR!

IF THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WERE TO PAN

OUT...THESE WOULD BE THE COOLEST HIGHS IN THE FIRST HALF OF

NOVEMBER...OR EARLIER IN THE SEASON...SINCE 1996 FOR BOTH

ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO.

THAT COLD AIR OUTBREAK OF 1996 ON THE SAME WEEK...VETERANS DAY

WEEK...WAS OF A MUCH LONGER DURATION THAN WILL BE THIS UPCOMING

ONE. THAT EPISODE BROUGHT BOTH CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD FIVE

CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HIGHS 33 OR COLDER FROM NOVEMBER 10TH-14TH.

ROCKFORD GOT AS COLD AS 10 AT NIGHT AND CHICAGO DROPPED TO 17.

FOR MORE OF A PERSPECTIVE...SPECIFICALLY LOOKING AT

ROCKFORD...HIGHS OF 30 OR LOWER DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER

HAVE OCCURRED ON LESS THAN THREE PERCENT OF ALL THE DAYS IN THE 107

YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD...SO QUITE RARE.

LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS ARE FORECAST IN

THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN OUTLYING AREAS...TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S

INTO CHICAGO. THESE WOULD BE THE COOLEST NIGHTTIME LOWS BEFORE THE

MIDPOINT OF NOVEMBER SINCE NOVEMBER 3RD 2006 WHEN 16 WAS OBSERVED

IN ROCKFORD AND 21 IN CHICAGO.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE BACK GRADUALLY THROUGH THE 40S FROM

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SO OVERALL JUST A BRIEF COLD SNAP BUT

A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT ONE FOR THIS EARLY IN THE MONTH! 

 

 

Alek will still fail to hit freezing.

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really thought I'd be bundled up with snow on the ground this coming gun hunting season the saturday before thanksgiving up in Ashland county sconnie..   Now I'm more worried about having to sport a orange vest and speedo.   Looks good for big start to early season winter snows up there not too much before or after after opening weekend still... Good times ahead in December.   Just hope we don't blow our wad before christmas...   Can't deal with a Grinch Christmas week in to the new yr.

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really thought I'd be bundled up with snow on the ground this coming gun hunting season the saturday before thanksgiving up in Ashland county sconnie..   Now I'm more worried about having to sport a orange vest and speedo.   Looks good for big start to early season winter snows up there not too much before or after after opening weekend still... Good times ahead in December.   Just hope we don't blow our wad before christmas...   Can't deal with a Grinch Christmas week in to the new yr.

 

Yeah, if most of the snow can hold off until after the 10th, then I think we can get a white Christmas and New Years. Would be nice anyways.

~who is that for your avatar?

 

80% chance of snow tomorrow.

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Yeah, if most of the snow can hold off until after the 10th, then I think we can get a white Christmas and New Years. Would be nice anyways.

~who is that for your avatar?

 

80% chance of snow tomorrow.

 

You haven't noticed that bome and alek have used a parade of annoying kids as their avatars for the past couple of years?

 

Good luck on Mt. Geos. Looking for a DAB here due to late changeover and warm ground.

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You haven't noticed that bome and alek have used a parade of annoying kids as their avatars for the past couple of years?

 

Good luck on Mt. Geos. Looking for a DAB here due to late changeover and warm ground.

 

Thanks!

I've noticed that. Of course BowMe has had a mix of ages for his avatar people. Maybe that's BowMe when he was younger! haha

 

Settling down to near 40° now. Looking at upper teens tomorrow night according to WGN.

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Still no freezing temps to be found through mid November on the GFS and Euro...might make a run at December :)  :sizzle:

 

Signals for a blowtorch are showing up now.  Trough off the West Coast.  +NAO/AO. Large elongated SE HP.  Look at the deep SW fetch.  What the hell is wrong with November.  Wasn't last year or the year before relatively cool?  But it seems  most are way above normal now.

 

 

Bump

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Big differences between the EURO/UKIE and the GFS/GEM for next weekend. Former models really slow and amplify the W US trough, eventually sending a rather deep sfc low throug the Lakes around D8. Latter models just shear the trough off quickly to the east. Funny thing is the GFS/GEM look more amplified with the E PAC ridge than the EURO does, which would tend to support a slower, stronger downstream trough.

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Big differences between the EURO/UKIE and the GFS/GEM for next weekend. Former models really slow and amplify the W US trough, eventually sending a rather deep sfc low throug the Lakes around D8. Latter models just shear the trough off quickly to the east. Funny thing is the GFS/GEM look more amplified with the E PAC ridge than the EURO does, which would tend to support a slower, stronger downstream trough.

Any change in the snow/precip department up there since your last check-in?

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