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November 2013 General Discussion


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YYZ down to 13F. My area down to 10F (-12.3C), with windchills below 0F. 

 

How much snow did Downtown Toronto receive from this LES band?

 

 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

 

Latest GGEM looks so beautiful for next week Tues-Wednesday. 

 

Could be a record at YYZ. At 1am it was only a few tenths of a degree too warm.

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Could be a record at YYZ. At 1am it was only a few tenths of a degree too warm.

http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-143_metric_e.html

Yes we have unofficially broken the old record set back in 2005. Quite a surprise. Now if only we saw a snowstorm today like 1950, haha.

Models have chimed in a bit more to the phasing idea. Ukmet, GGEM and Euro look fairly similar.

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I vote for Patrick Sumner as WOTY even though he doesn't post on here any more. From IND's NWSChat last night:

 

"All aboard the NAM train!!! Bring on some pre-Thanksgiving snow!!! If I do a snow dance, maybe we can get some of those other beautiful models to trend northwest??? Stay warm IND!"

 

An interesting temperature factoid from IND's morning disco:

 

"THE FORECAST HIGH AT INDIANAPOLIS OF 26 DEGREES WOULD BE THE FIRST
TIME WE FAIL TO GET OUT OF THE 30S IN NOVEMBER SINCE 2005
...AND
WOULD BE THE COLDEST NOVEMBER HIGH SINCE AN IDENTICAL 26 DEGREE
MAX TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER 21 OF 2000.
"

 

So it's not my imagination. The first time it's been this cold this early for quite some time.

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Might hit a total daily departure of -20.

Combine that with a temperature deviation from last weekend, WOW !! Also tornado watches followed by heavy LES in the same week is a amazing accomplishment in weather to me. I have a feeling this is not the only impressive event to happen this winter season.

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Just stepped outside to experience the coldest night since March 21st. Can smell a wood burning stove somewhere upwind. 13.2° imby.

 

Also went out for a midnight walk to experience the cold. Makes you feel alive! Excited for what's to come.

http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-143_metric_e.html

Yes we have unofficially broken the old record set back in 2005. Quite a surprise. Now if only we saw a snowstorm today like 1950, haha.

Models have chimed in a bit more to the phasing idea. Ukmet, GGEM and Euro look fairly similar.

Impressive record setting cold air tonight. Hamilton Airport beat their record by a full half degree C.

 

Combine that with a temperature deviation from last weekend, WOW !! Also tornado watches followed by heavy LES in the same week is a amazing accomplishment in weather to me. I have a feeling this is not the only impressive event to happen this winter season.

It's been a,very exciting last few weeks, been glued to the models lately. If these last few days are any indication of how much time I'll be at my computer tracking weather this winter, it's gonna be a long season!

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It's ironic seeing tornado damage in a neighboring community being cleaned up while everything is being dusted by snow. This cold has been very impressive, first the two day snap on the 12th and 13th, and now this whole week we may stay below freezing the entire time. Considering the average high is 45 this is pretty bitter cold

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Only hit a high of 22 today. Temp now at 21. EC out to lunch again with this event with a low of 19 forecasted for tonight with moderate north westerly winds and partly cloudy skies. 

 

Well NAM Hires only has a low of 16F so they aren't too far off. We switch over to southerly flow at around 04Z tonight so that will end the CAA into Ontario.

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It's ironic seeing tornado damage in a neighboring community being cleaned up while everything is being dusted by snow. This cold has been very impressive, first the two day snap on the 12th and 13th, and now this whole week we may stay below freezing the entire time. Considering the average high is 45 this is pretty bitter cold

 

It does seem kind of strange experiencing this weather one week after watching tornadoes wreak havoc across the area, but it's not really rare to see a sudden change. Remember Henryville...

 

 

I followed the damage path of the Grant County EF 2 yesterday. Even though a lot of the structural damage has been cleaned up, I was surprised at the destruction an EF 2 can produce.

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For a historical perspective on cold November temps...(todays high/low at DTW was 26F/14F)....

The coldest November high temp was 12F on Nov 21, 1880.

The coldest November low temp was 0F on Nov 22, 1880.

The coldest November mean temp was 8F, set on Nov 21, 1880 (12F/3F) and Nov 22, 1880 (16F/0F). This historic November coldblast was the beginning of one of the harshest winters the midwest had ever known, and was also one of the most anamalous weather events (tempwise) in Detroits history, up there with the March 2012 warm spell.

 

The coldest non-1880 November high temp was 14F on Nov 29, 1929

The coldest non-1880 November low was 4F on Nov 30, 1929

The coldest non-180 November mean temp was 10F on Nov 29, 1929 (14F/5F)

 

About 1950.....with all the talk about that recently, I looked more closely at what happened here, and it was one odd winter storm here.

 

Nov 24, 1950 the high was 17F and the low was 7F. The high, however, was set at midnight. Temps were falling, and the daylight high temp was 12F. There was also 0.1" of snow which fell in the early morning hours, assumably after the arctic front had passed. This was actually ahead of the storm, and there was just that slight T of snow on the ground. (note....Nov 1, 1950 saw a record high of 81F, the only 80F on record for November in Detroit, so the monthly max/min was 81F/7F...the month was well below normal overall)

 

The historic Apps storm left an interesting scenario in SE MI. At Detroit light snow began at 2am November 25th and precip fell every hour through noon November 26th, nearly 36 hours.

 

Light snow began at 2am the 25th with a frigid temp of 11F. Snow continued to fall and the temperature began to rise. At 9am, snow was falling with a temp of 16F. The snow switched to freezing rain at 2pm with a temp of 28F, and then plain rain by 5pm with a temp of 33F. The temp then spiked for 5 hours (6pm to 10pm) to 37F-39F with rain continuing to fall, then the temp fell from 39F at 10pm, to 31F at 11pm, to 29F at midnight, as the rain switched back to snow. The temp continued to fall as did the snow, and it wa2s down to 17F by 10am, the snow ending at noon.

 

1950....High...Low...Precip...Snow...Depth 7pm

11/23.....42....17.......0.11......0.3......T

11/24.....17......7.......0.01......0.1......T

11/25.....39....10.......0.70......3.6......2

11/26.....30....14.......0.28......2.7......5

11/27.....28....13.......T...........T.........5

11/28.....30....20.......0.15......1.7......7

 

The storm total for Nov 25-26 was 0.98" precip and 6.3" snow. This was the biggest snowstorm of the year. However, the greatest 24-hour precip in this storm was 0.90" and the greatest 24-hour snowfall in this storm was 5.5".

 

The Detroit LCD for November 1950 states that driving conditions were extremely hazardous during the snowfall of the 25-26th. I imagine everything was iced over.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDET/1950/11/25/DailyHistory.html

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDET/1950/11/26/DailyHistory.html

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
636 AM CST SUN NOV 24 2013 /736 AM EST SUN NOV 24 2013/

..A 60 DEGREE CHANGE IN ONE WEEK: RARE OR NOT?

LAST WEEK STARTED WITH NEAR 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
NOVEMBER 17TH. THAT UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WAS ONE OF MANY ELEMENTS
IN PLACE THAT BROUGHT A RECORD NOVEMBER TORNADO OUTBREAK TO
ILLINOIS ON THAT DAY. SUCCESSIVE COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS AFTERWARD BROUGHT TEMPERATURES PROGRESSIVELY
DOWNWARD...WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES THIS SUNDAY MORNING
NOVEMBER 24TH. THE CHANGE IN JUST A ONE WEEK PERIOD OF TIME
CERTAINLY FELT SIGNIFICANT...BUT WAS IT REALLY ATYPICAL FOR THIS
AREA? WELL...YES AND NO.

CHICAGO

CHICAGO SAW A HIGH OF 69 DEGREES ON NOVEMBER 17TH WHILE THIS
SUNDAY MORNING HAD A LOW OF 12 DEGREES. THIS NEARLY 60 DEGREE
CHANGE MAY SEEM DRASTIC...BUT THE CITY ACTUALLY AVERAGES A 60
DEGREE SPAN OF TEMPERATURES DURING A WEEK'S PERIOD A LITTLE UNDER
ONCE A YEAR (106 TIMES IN 142 YEARS). IN FACT...2013 ALREADY HAD
BROUGHT SUCH A SHARP CHANGE WHEN THE MERCURY WENT FROM 63 DEGREES
ON JANUARY 29TH TO 0 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 1ST.

WHAT MAKES THIS CHANGE UNIQUE IS THAT IT OCCURRED IN AUTUMN. THERE
HAVE ONLY BEEN FIVE TIMES IN 142 YEARS IN CHICAGO THAT A
TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF 60 DEGREES IN ONE WEEK'S SPAN OCCURRED IN
METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN (SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER)...AND THIS MOST RECENT
WEEK FELL JUST SHY OF THAT. THE LAST TIME IT HAD OCCURRED WAS 1976
WHEN THE TEMPERATURE WENT FROM 61 DEGREES ON THE 26TH TO 0 DEGREES
ON THE 29TH. THE OTHER FOUR TIMES WERE IN 1930 (64 DEGREE
CHANGE)...1911 (62 DEGREE CHANGE)...1901 (62 DEGREE CHANGE)...AND
1898 (64 DEGREE CHANGE). ALL OF THESE WERE IN NOVEMBER.

WHY ARE SUCH TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN A WEEK'S PERIOD MORE RARE IN
AUTUMN? WELL IT LIKELY HAS TO DO WITH A FEW FACTORS. LOOKING BACK
AT WHEN THE MOST COMMON TIME OF THE YEAR IS TO HAVE THESE SHARP 60
DEGREE CHANGES IN A WEEK IS BY FAR AND AWAY LATE WINTER INTO EARLY
SPRING. FOR ONE...THAT TIME OF THE YEAR TENDS TO HAVE SNOW COVER
MORE REGULARLY THAN AUTUMN. SNOW COVER CAN EASILY MODIFY AN AIR
MASS AND LEAD TO PRONOUNCED COOLING OF THE AIR AND THUS ALLOW FOR
A GREATER CONTRAST. ALSO...WARM AIR RETURN AS PRONOUNCED AS
NOVEMBER 17TH IS VERY RARE DURING THIS SHORT DAYLIGHT TIME OF
YEAR. LATE WINTER INTO EARLY SPRING HAS NOTICEABLY LONGER DAYLIGHT
AND HEATING...AND THUS CAN BRING EVEN MORE STRIKING WARM SURGES
AHEAD OF WEATHER SYSTEMS. FINALLY...LAKE MICHIGAN IS MUCH MILDER
THIS TIME OF YEAR THAN IN SPRING...AND MAY INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES
FROM CHANGING AS DRASTICALLY AS THEY MIGHT WITH A SHARPLY COOLING
LAKE INFLUENCE THAT IS SEEN REGULARLY IN LATE WINTER AND SPRING.

ROCKFORD

ROCKFORD ALSO SAW A HIGH OF 69 DEGREES ON NOVEMBER 17TH WHILE THIS
SUNDAY MORNING BROUGHT A LOW OF 9 DEGREES. ROCKFORD AVERAGES SUCH
60 DEGREE TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN A SINGLE WEEK SPAN MORE THAN
ONCE A YEAR (152 TIMES IN 106 YEARS). THE LIKELY REASONS THIS IS
MORE FREQUENT THAN IN CHICAGO IS THAT IT IS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
INFLUENCES OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE LARGER URBAN HEAT
ISLAND...BOTH OF WHICH CAN RESTRICT EXTREME TEMPERATURE CHANGES.
ROCKFORD HAS ALREADY SEEN SUCH A SHARP CHANGE IN 2013 WHEN THE
MERCURY WENT FROM 62 DEGREES ON JANUARY 29TH DOWN TO -4 DEGREES ON
FEBRUARY 1ST.

AN AUTUMN CHANGE OF 60 DEGREES IN JUST ONE WEEK IS NOT ANYWHERE
NEAR AS RARE AS CHICAGO...AS THIS WAS THE 21ST TIME IT HAD
OCCURRED IN THE PAST 106 YEARS. IT HAD BEEN AWHILE THOUGH SINCE
THE LAST TIME...WHICH OCCURRED IN OCTOBER OF 1992 WHEN THE
TEMPERATURE HAD BOTTOMED OUT AT 18 ON THE 19TH AND REBOUNDED TO 78
DEGREES ON THE 22ND.

SO WHILE MOST FELT THE NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IN JUST
ONE WEEK...THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT UNHEARD OF ESPECIALLY IN OUTLYING
LOCATIONS FROM CHICAGO. BUT FOR THE WINDY CITY DURING THE AUTUMN
SEASON...THIS PAST WEEK'S NEAR 60 DEGREE RIDE IS FAIRLY RARE.

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nice write up by RC via LOT....

 

 

The Most Impressive November Cold Snap for Chicago and Rockford Since at Least 2000
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
714 PM CST SUN NOV 24 2013 /814 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013/

...STATISTICS ON THE WEEKEND COLD SNAP FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD...

THIS WEEKEND SAW THE MOST IMPRESSIVE NOVEMBER COLD SNAP SINCE AT
LEAST 2000 IN CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD. BELOW ARE SUMMARY STATISTICS:

CHICAGO*
-------
ON SATURDAY NOVEMBER 23RD...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 26 DEGREES
AND THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 15 DEGREES...FOR AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY NOVEMBER 24TH...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 27 DEGREES AND
THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 11 DEGREES...FOR AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
19 DEGREES.

* THE 26 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURE ON SATURDAY WAS THE COLDEST IN
NOVEMBER SINCE 24 DEGREES ON NOVEMBER 21 2000.

* THE 11 DEGREE LOW TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY WAS THE COLDEST IN
NOVEMBER SINCE 11 DEGREES ON NOVEMBER 29 1995.

* THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES ON SUNDAY WAS THE COLDEST
DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN NOVEMBER SINCE THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
WAS 18 DEGREES ON NOVEMBER 4 1991. MORE RECENTLY...THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE ON NOVEMBER 21 2000 WAS ALSO 19 DEGREES.

* THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...20
DEGREES...WAS THE COLDEST 2-DAY PERIOD IN NOVEMBER IN CHICAGO
SINCE NOVEMBER 3-4 1991 AVERAGED 18 DEGREES. IN MORE RECENT
HISTORY...THIS WEEKEND`S COLD SURPASSED THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
OF 21 DEGREES ON NOVEMBER 21-22 2000 TO BECOME THE COLDEST 2-DAY
PERIOD IN CHICAGO SINCE THE YEAR 2000.

* THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATION FOR THE CITY OF CHICAGO IS OHARE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR CHICAGO BEGAN IN 1871.

ROCKFORD*
--------

ON SATURDAY NOVEMBER 23RD...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 24 DEGREES
AND THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 12 DEGREES...FOR AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY NOVEMBER 24TH...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 26 DEGREES AND
THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 9 DEGREES...FOR AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
18 DEGREES.

* THE 24 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURE ON SATURDAY WAS THE COLDEST IN
NOVEMBER SINCE 23 DEGREES ON NOVEMBER 27 1996. THE PREVIOUS
COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE IN NOVEMBER SINCE 2000 WAS 25 DEGREES
ON NOVEMBER 17 AND 25 2005.

* THE 9 DEGREE LOW TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY WAS THE COLDEST IN
NOVEMBER SINCE 1 DEGREE ON NOVEMBER 29 1995. THE 9 DEGREE LOW
TIED THAT ON NOVEMBER 24 1997 AND SURPASSED THE 10 DEGREE LOW ON
NOVEMBER 27 2002 TO BECOME THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE IN THE
MONTH OF NOVEMBER SINCE THE YEAR 2000.

* THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WERE THE COLDEST DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN NOVEMBER SINCE
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 15 DEGREES ON NOVEMBER 27 1996. BOTH
DAYS SURPASSED THE 19 DEGREE AVERAGE ON NOVEMBER 25
2005...NOVEMBER 17 2005 AND NOVEMBER 21 2000 TO BECOME THE
COLDEST DAYS IN NOVEMBER SINCE THE YEAR 2000.

* THE 2-DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...18
DEGREES...WAS THE COLDEST 2 DAY PERIOD IN NOVEMBER IN ROCKFORD
SINCE NOVEMBER 26-27 1996 AVERAGED 15 DEGREES. IN MORE RECENT
HISTORY...THIS WEEKEND SURPASSED THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 20
DEGREES ON NOVEMBER 21-22 2000 TO BECOME THE COLDEST 2-DAY
PERIOD IN NOVEMBER IN ROCKFORD SINCE THE YEAR 2000.

* THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITE FOR ROCKFORD IS CHICAGO-ROCKFORD
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR ROCKFORD BEGAN IN 1905.

$

RC
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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
714 PM CST SUN NOV 24 2013 /814 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013/

..STATISTICS ON THE WEEKEND COLD SNAP FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD

THIS WEEKEND SAW THE MOST IMPRESSIVE NOVEMBER COLD SNAP SINCE AT
LEAST 2000 IN CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD. BELOW ARE SUMMARY STATISTICS:

CHICAGO*
-------
ON SATURDAY NOVEMBER 23RD...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 26 DEGREES
AND THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 15 DEGREES...FOR AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 21 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY NOVEMBER 24TH...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 27 DEGREES AND
THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 11 DEGREES...FOR AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
19 DEGREES.

* THE 26 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURE ON SATURDAY WAS THE COLDEST IN
NOVEMBER SINCE 24 DEGREES ON NOVEMBER 21 2000.

* THE 11 DEGREE LOW TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY WAS THE COLDEST IN
NOVEMBER SINCE 11 DEGREES ON NOVEMBER 29 1995.

* THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES ON SUNDAY WAS THE COLDEST
DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN NOVEMBER SINCE THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
WAS 18 DEGREES ON NOVEMBER 4 1991. MORE RECENTLY...THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE ON NOVEMBER 21 2000 WAS ALSO 19 DEGREES.

* THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...20
DEGREES...WAS THE COLDEST 2-DAY PERIOD IN NOVEMBER IN CHICAGO
SINCE NOVEMBER 3-4 1991 AVERAGED 18 DEGREES. IN MORE RECENT
HISTORY...THIS WEEKEND'S COLD SURPASSED THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
OF 21 DEGREES ON NOVEMBER 21-22 2000 TO BECOME THE COLDEST 2-DAY
PERIOD IN CHICAGO SINCE THE YEAR 2000.

* THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATION FOR THE CITY OF CHICAGO IS OHARE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR CHICAGO BEGAN IN 1871.

ROCKFORD*
--------
ON SATURDAY NOVEMBER 23RD...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 24 DEGREES
AND THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 12 DEGREES...FOR AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY NOVEMBER 24TH...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 26 DEGREES AND
THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 9 DEGREES...FOR AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
18 DEGREES.

* THE 24 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURE ON SATURDAY WAS THE COLDEST IN
NOVEMBER SINCE 23 DEGREES ON NOVEMBER 27 1996. THE PREVIOUS
COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE IN NOVEMBER SINCE 2000 WAS 25 DEGREES
ON NOVEMBER 17 AND 25 2005.

* THE 9 DEGREE LOW TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY WAS THE COLDEST IN
NOVEMBER SINCE 1 DEGREE ON NOVEMBER 29 1995. THE 9 DEGREE LOW
TIED THAT ON NOVEMBER 24 1997 AND SURPASSED THE 10 DEGREE LOW ON
NOVEMBER 27 2002 TO BECOME THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE IN THE
MONTH OF NOVEMBER SINCE THE YEAR 2000.

* THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WERE THE COLDEST DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN NOVEMBER SINCE
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 15 DEGREES ON NOVEMBER 27 1996. BOTH
DAYS SURPASSED THE 19 DEGREE AVERAGE ON NOVEMBER 25
2005...NOVEMBER 17 2005 AND NOVEMBER 21 2000 TO BECOME THE
COLDEST DAYS IN NOVEMBER SINCE THE YEAR 2000.

* THE 2-DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...18
DEGREES...WAS THE COLDEST 2 DAY PERIOD IN NOVEMBER IN ROCKFORD
SINCE NOVEMBER 26-27 1996 AVERAGED 15 DEGREES. IN MORE RECENT
HISTORY...THIS WEEKEND SURPASSED THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 20
DEGREES ON NOVEMBER 21-22 2000 TO BECOME THE COLDEST 2-DAY
PERIOD IN NOVEMBER IN ROCKFORD SINCE THE YEAR 2000.

* THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITE FOR ROCKFORD IS CHICAGO-ROCKFORD
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR ROCKFORD BEGAN IN 1905. 

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