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November 2013 General Discussion


Geos

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It was funny, I jumped to the 12z nam text data to see what kind of temp readings it was spurting out for the next few days and I happened to see the total precip for cmh around .70.   I thought wtf Where did that come from?  and now I see it.    Interestingly the gem is one hell of a close call too.   That being said, throw in the fact that it's 1) long range nam,  2) western bias of the gem, and 3) the euro isn't playing ball, and it's nothing more than funny noise.

 

Holy crap. Looks like the EURO is going to play ball. Big shift.

 

I knew something was up when it had that closed h5 contour over the OK panhandle at 48. Very similar to the NAM and RGEM.

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Holy crap. Looks like the EURO is going to play ball. Big shift.

I knew something was up when it had that closed h5 contour over the OK panhandle at 48. Very similar to the NAM and RGEM.

Well this just makes things a bit more interesting. Going to have to see if this continues. Euro had a big shift from its previous runs, has a better phasing idea than before. Hows winter going for you Canuck, out in edmonton?

The 500mb vort maps indicate a similar solution on both the GGEM/NAM/SREF compared to the Euro through 48-54 hours.

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Well this just makes things a bit more interesting. Going to have to see if this continues. Euro had a big shift from its previous runs, has a better phasing idea than before. Hows winter going for you Canuck, out in edmonton?

The 500mb vort maps indicate a similar solution on both the GGEM/NAM/SREF compared to the Euro through 48-54 hours.

 

Verbatim it's probably a graze job but you have to like the trends. Big differences between how much the EURO/SR Hi-res models and the GFS digs that northern stream s/w.

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Verbatim it's probably a graze job but you have to like the trends. Big differences between how much the EURO/SR Hi-res models and the GFS digs that northern stream s/w.

 

Yes we'll have to see how the runs handle this situation. Has it come onshore yet? 

 

Alot of differences between the models run for a storm that is just a few days out. Shows how reliable models are, haha. The overall pattern across the Pacific with the changes going on there, are having a huge effect on how the models cooperate which is why were seeing so many solutions on the table. Tropical forcing, MJO, etc are impacting the accuracy.  

 

The overall pattern may produce alot of clippers in early December, so Edmonton may cash in on some snows after this week. 

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Wow!

I got 9° for a low tonight.

40% of snow now on Monday.

 

pretty dang frigid out right now....these temps may not feel bad in January....but for early in the season it's def a little shock to the system lol

 

ground temps should take a pretty good hit today and tomorrow....

 

love that I finally don't have to wipe the dogs paws when he comes in....been nothing but mud between the toes for the last 3 weeks after we go for our daily frisbee play sessions...finally the ground has frozen

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pretty dang frigid out right now....these temps may not feel bad in January....but for early in the season it's def a little shock to the system lol

 

ground temps should take a pretty good hit today and tomorrow....

 

love that I finally don't have to wipe the dogs paws when he comes in....been nothing but mud between the toes for the last 3 weeks after we go for our daily frisbee play sessions...finally the ground has frozen

 

Ground is frozen here. I just disconnected the garden hoses last night.

 

Decent chance for some nice light snow for a couple hours on Monday.

 

Actually now up to 50% chance now, at least on this side of the city.

 

post-7389-0-57900700-1385233660_thumb.pn

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Fricken cold out there.  23 but feels like -23 compared to the warmth last weekend. 

 

Yeah no kidding. I was hunting around for my ear muffs this morning!

 

Daytime high only 23°. High of 25°. Just topped off my anti-freeze and windshield washer fluids. People who are putting up x-mas lights this weekend are probably wishing they would have done it last weekend!

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From here the front sided winter is almost a sure thing. The temps are looking to moderate a tad but the cold of winter seems to be winning the battle vs the torch of other years.

 

Finally closed the pool this morning. Tried a new method of running the pump during the month when the leaves were falling. They were collected in the skimmer where I scooped them out. We have a big problem of wind in our yard and the winter covers would only last a season, or just fly off anyhow. Come spring I will let you know how the coverless method turned out.

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From here the front sided winter is almost a sure thing. The temps are looking to moderate a tad but the cold of winter seems to be winning the battle vs the torch of other years.

 

Finally closed the pool this morning. Tried a new method of running the pump during the month when the leaves were falling. They were collected in the skimmer where I scooped them out. We have a big problem of wind in our yard and the winter covers would only last a season, or just fly off anyhow. Come spring I will let you know how the coverless method turned out.

 

This cold is so far below normal that its highly difficult to maintain, but the next 2 weeks look to be below normal with no period rising above normal.

 

This one would probably break records, complete cross polar flow.

 

gfs_polar_300_850_temp_ht.gif

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That's a harsh looking map. Yeah I don't see anywhere in the next 7 days where anyone in here gets above normal.

 

Already down to 17° imby.

 

The northwoods stays below freezing for the extended range.... Most trails will be open Dec 1st in Michigan, the earliest in probably 3 years.

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
300 PM CST SAT NOV 23 2013 /400 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2013/

...THE COLDEST EARLY SEASON NIGHT IN OVER 20 YEARS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

SHOULD THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR ROCKFORD AND CHICAGO-
OHARE VERIFY TONIGHT...THE LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY NOVEMBER
24TH WILL BE THE COLDEST THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON IN OVER 20
YEARS FOR BOTH LOCATIONS.

THE FORECAST LOW FOR ROCKFORD IS 7 DEGREES. YOU HAVE TO GO ALL THE
WAY BACK TO NOVEMBER 7TH 1991 FOR A TEMPERATURE THIS LOW IN THE
FIRST 24 DAYS OF THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS OCCURRENCE OF A LOW
TEMPERATURE COLDER THAN 10 DEGREES THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON WAS
NOVEMBER 24TH 1997...WHICH BOTTOMED OUT AT 9 DEGREES.

IN CHICAGO...THE FORECAST LOW IS 11 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME CHICAGO
SAW A TEMPERATURE THIS COLD THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON WAS ON
NOVEMBER 4TH 1991. A LOW TEMPERATURE COLDER THAN 15 DEGREES THIS
EARLY IN THE SEASON LAST OCCURRED BACK ON NOVEMBER 22ND
2000...WHEN THE MERCURY DIPPED TO 14 DEGREES.

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11 here.  Point has 3 above.  Pretty amazing for no snow cover at all, and it being before Thanksgiving.

 

EDIT:  Was just thinking that this time last week many of us were getting ready for severe weather/chasing the following morning.  Last Sunday morning temps were already well into the 60s, with dews near 60 early on.  Temps will be close to 60 degrees colder just one week later, tomorrow morning.  Man, what a change.

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Just stepped outside to experience the coldest night since March 21st. Can smell a wood burning stove somewhere upwind. 13.2° imby.

 

Down to 9 here.  First time single digits have been reached for the season.  I still need to mulch up some leaves, and run the gas out of the mower before winter.  Don't think I'll be getting that done this weekend.  Between working late and being busy the last few weekends I am running behind a bit on some outdoor crap. 

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Down to 9 here.  First time single digits have been reached for the season.  I still need to mulch up some leaves, and run the gas out of the mower before winter.  Don't think I'll be getting that done this weekend.  Between working late and being busy the last few weekends I am running behind a bit on some outdoor crap. 

 

I still have a few piles of leaves under a couple trees, then a few laying in the garden. Can't do much with them in the frozen state. Otherwise everything is done here. Well, I was going to dig out a root ball from an bush I cut out, but now the ground is froze! haha

 

11.7° now at 1am.

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