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November 2013 General Discussion


Geos

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Haven't been paying a lot of attention, but I haven't seen anything down here.  Wind is too northerly for me.

 

I don't believe lake effect was involved with it at all. It was associated with the disturbance. It was nice to see the big snowflakes for a couple hours...but it was still to warm for them to lay and not melt.

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Signals for a blowtorch are showing up now. Trough off the West Coast. +NAO/AO. Large elongated SE HP. Look at the deep SW fetch. What the hell is wrong with November. Wasn't last year or the year before relatively cool? But it seems most are way above normal now.]

Don't quit your day job!

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Signals for a blowtorch are showing up now. Trough off the West Coast. +NAO/AO. Large elongated SE HP. Look at the deep SW fetch. What the hell is wrong with November. Wasn't last year or the year before relatively cool? But it seems most are way above normal now.]

Don't quit your day job!

Oh snap

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Im thinking RGEM if extrapolated would come up with a similar solution to the NAM for that storm next week. These hi-res models, including a number of the SREF members, are taking that H5 closed low over the southwest further north than the globals. This gives it a better shot at interacting with that s/w dropping out of the Plains at around 72 hours.

 

GFS is the polar opposite though. EURO not playing ball either. Until one of those models blink it's probably safe at this point to disregard the NAM. It's a sign of desperation to yank out the "data sampling" card but what the hell...I think both the northern and southern stream components are at least partially offshore as of the 12z intake.

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Im thinking RGEM if extrapolated would come up with a similar solution to the NAM for that storm next week. These hi-res models, including a number of the SREF members, are taking that H5 closed low over the southwest further north than the globals. This gives it a better shot at interacting with that s/w dropping out of the Plains at around 72 hours.

 

GFS is the polar opposite though. EURO not playing ball either. Until one of those models blink it's probably safe at this point to disregard the NAM. It's a sign of desperation to yank out the "data sampling" card but what the hell...I think both the northern and southern stream components are at least partially offshore as of the 12z intake.

 

It was funny, I jumped to the 12z nam text data to see what kind of temp readings it was spurting out for the next few days and I happened to see the total precip for cmh around .70.   I thought wtf Where did that come from?  and now I see it.    Interestingly the gem is one hell of a close call too.   That being said, throw in the fact that it's 1) long range nam,  2) western bias of the gem, and 3) the euro isn't playing ball, and it's nothing more than funny noise.

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Thanksgiving snow has been getting pretty common over the last 10 years... Growing up it was rare as heck to see it.

 

Not sure what timeframe you're talking, but I noticed the same thing. I grew up in SEMI and most times counted myself lucky if I had seen flurries by Thanksgiving. But, there are those who say we are repeating the larger ocean cycles that would correlate with the 50's and apparently November snows were more common then. It is a noticable "flip" trend for sure.

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WOW! +SN in downtown Toronto right now. Visibility 200m or less. Wicked snow squall rolling through. First TRUE sign of winter!

Yes I had that too, got 1.0cm from that first band and its currently very heavily snowing right now as we speak.

My entire backyard is whiting up. Very beautiful indeed.

Should continue through out the day and into tomorrow. Models show some decent bands hitting the GTA later today.

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