November 2013 forecast contest -- temperatures

[Roger Smith]

After 14,15,16,17,18,19 and 20 days ...

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH

 

--2.0 _ --1.9 _ --1.0 ___ --2.8 _ --3.4 _ --4.5 (14d)

--2.1 _ --1.6 _ --0.6 ___ --2.4 _ --3.5 _ --4.0 (15d)

--1.9 _ --1.2 _ --0.3 ___ --1.5 _ --3.1 _ --3.3 (16d)

--1.2 _ --0.7 _ --0.1 ___ --0.5 _ --2.4 _ --2.3 (17d)

--0.5 _ --0.0 _ +0.7 ___ --0.6 _ --1.7 _ --1.7 (18d)

--0.5 _ --0.2 _ +0.5 ___ --0.8 _ --1.7 _ --1.6 (19d)

--0.8 _ --0.5 __ 0.0 ____--0.9 _ --1.9 _ --1.6 (20d)

 

 

will edit this post daily to 20th, then start a countdown.

 

(14th) .. All of these values are probably at their low point for the next 4-5 days with +10 anomalies or better in the weekend forecasts likely to return all but ATL and IAH to near zero by 18th. Then a new cold surge begins. I worked out that if all actuals are colder than or equal to RodneyS forecasts (end of month) he will gain 336 points on Midlo, but if the end result is milder than or equal to Midlo's numbers, it's the other way around. So there's lots at stake this next two weeks. Outcomes in the middle somewhere would really tighten up the annual race as we enter the run to the wire. That's because quite a few of the chasers from third to tenth have forecasts between the two leaders and would probably move up on both of them in that outcome, although some chasers would benefit from a warmer outcome than Midlo is predicting.

 

(20th) .. current forecasts all point to finishes around -3 as it turns much colder again. We may get into territory where only negative forecasts score much at all. Will start a new countdown post tomorrow.

[Isotherm]

Widespread busts this month. Might even be possible that the coldest forecaster was too warm.

[Roger Smith]

(countdown to final anomalies)

 

Date __ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH

 

21 ___ --1.0 _ --0.7 _ --0.2 ____ --0.5 _ --1.7 _ --0.9

22 ___ --0.5 _ --0.3 _ --0.1 ____ --0.5 _ --1.3 _ --0.9

23 ___ --0.5 _ --0.4 _ --0.1 ____ --1.2 _ --1.4 _ --1.5

24 ___ --1.2 _ --1.1 _ --0.8 ____ --1.6 _ --1.8 _ --2.0

25 ___ --1.8 _ --1.7 _ --1.4 ____ --2.2 _ --2.3 _ --2.6

26 ___ --1.9 _ --1.8 _ --1.5 ____ --2.5 _ --2.6 _ --3.2

27 ___ --2.1 _ --1.6 _ --1.1 ____ --2.9 _ --3.0 _ --3.6

28 ___ --2.5 _ --1.9 _ --1.3 ____ --3.1 _ --3.4 _ --4.1

29 ___ --2.7 _ --2.2 _ --1.7 ____ --3.2 _ --3.5 _ --4.2

30 ___ --3.0 _ --2.5 _ --2.0 ____ --2.8 _ --3.4 _ --4.2

 

The last set are the final values.

[Roger Smith]

Confirmed scoring for November

 

At this point, the anomalies are confirmed for DCA, NYC and ORD. Scores are thus final for those three sites, and provisional until later today for the other three.

 

 

Forecaster ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ CL TOT ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ EX TOT ___ TOTAL

_________________________________________________________________________________

 

Confirmed final anom ___ --3.0 _ --2.5 _ --2.0 _________ --2.8 _ --3.4 _ --4.2

 

 

RodneyS ______________ 88___ 96 __ 90 __ 274 _______ 68 ___ 78 ___ 50___ 196 _____ 470

Tenman Johnson _______ 60 ___ 80 ___ 90 __ 230 _______ 74 ___ 76 ___ 26 ___ 176 ______ 406

Roger Smith ___________ 64 ___ 78 ___ 74 __ 216 ________ 84 ___ 62 ___ 12 ___ 158 _____ 374

 

Normal _______________ 40 ___ 50 ___ 60 __ 150 ________ 44 ___ 32 ___ 16 ____ 92 _____ 242

 

Chicago Storm _________ 38 ___ 50 ___ 62 __ 150 ________ 38 ___ 30 ___ 10 ____ 78 _____ 228

hudsonvalley21 ________ 34 ___ 26 ___ 42 __ 102 ________ 66 ___ 40 ___ 14 ___ 120 _____ 222

wxdude64 ____________ 22 ___ 36 ___ 50 __ 108 ________ 72 ___ 00 ___ 26 ____ 98 _____ 206

Midlo_Snow_Maker _____ 14 ___ 28 ___ 46 ___ 88 ________ 60 ___ 22 ___ 00 ____ 82 _____ 170

donsutherland.1 ________ 24 ___ 34 ___ 50 __ 108 ________ 24 ___ 22 ___ 00 ____ 46 _____ 154

Inudaw _______________ 04 ___ 24 ___ 38 ___ 66 ________ 34 ___ 28 ___ 26 ____ 88 _____ 154

goobagooba ___________ 12 ___ 22 ___ 46 ___ 80 ________ 64 ___ 00 ___ 08 ____ 72 _____ 152

SD ___________________ 20 ___ 34 ___ 54 __ 108 ________ 36 ___ 06 ___ 00 ____ 42 _____ 150

Wx Hype ______________ 22 ___ 34 ___ 54 __ 110 ________ 40 ___ 00 ___ 00 ____ 40 _____ 150

 

Consensus _____________ 12 ___ 24 ___ 42 ___ 78 ________ 40 ___ 10 ___ 06 ____ 56 ____ 134

 

Isotherm ______________ 04 ___ 22 ___ 38 ___ 64 ________54 ___ 10 ___ 00 ____ 64 _____ 128

blazess556 ____________ 04 ___ 18 ___ 34 ___ 56 ________ 58 ___ 06 ___ 00 ____ 64 _ 120

____________ (-1%) ____04 ___ 18 ___ 34 ___ 56 ________ 57 ___ 06 ___ 00 ____ 63 _____ 119

bkviking _______________04 ___ 16 ___ 28 ___ 48 ________ 40 ___ 16 ___ 12 ____ 68 ____ 116

stebo ________________ 00 ___ 22 ___ 40 ___ 62 _________ 50 ___ 00 ___ 00 ____ 50 ____ 112

Tom _________________ 18 ___ 24 ___ 42 ___ 84 _________ 20 ___ 10 ___ 00 ____ 30 _ 114

______ (-3%) _________ 17 ___ 23 ___ 41 ___ 81 _________ 19 ___ 10 ___ 00 ____ 29 _____ 110

DerekZ _______________ 00 ___ 02 ___ 26 ___ 28_________ 24 ___ 20 ___ 18 ____ 62 _____ 90

metalicwx366 __________ 02 ___ 16 ___ 36 ___ 54 ________ 32 ___ 04 ___ 00 ____ 36 _____ 90

uncle W ______________ 00 ___ 08 ___ 30 ___ 38 _________ 14 ___ 22 ___ 06 ____ 42 _____ 80

MN_Transplant ________ 00 ___ 10 ___ 26 ___ 36 _________ 22___ 00 ___ 10 ____ 32 _ 68

____ (-16%) __________ 00 ___ 08 ___ 22 ___ 30 _________ 18 ___ 00 ___ 08 ____ 26 _____ 56

Mallow _______________ 00 ___ 10 ___ 30 ___ 40 _________ 00 ___ 00 ___ 00 ____ 00 _____ 40

GD0815 ______________ 00 ___ 00 ___ 00 ___ 00 _________ 06 ___ 00 ___ 00 ____ 06 _____ 06

 

_____________________________________________________

 

The annual contest standings will be updated later today.

[wxdude64]

Roger,

Are you going to wait until scoring for month is official before tackling the ATL snowfall on 27th?

Lots of blown forecasts for this month, me included.

[Roger Smith]

Roger,

Are you going to wait until scoring for month is official before tackling the ATL snowfall on 27th?

Lots of blown forecasts for this month, me included.

 

True story, didn't notice it had snowed (measurably, that is), I only saw hourly reports all day of 35-39 deg rain etc etc and forgot to check.

 

I will update the table, check back until you see it has been edited. Date errors for no snow people will be (ouch) 140d.

[Roger Smith]

RodneyS surges ahead after drubbing most of the field in November.

 

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< UPDATED ANNUAL SCORING >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 

 

____________________________ "Classic" _______________ "Expanded" _____________


Forecaster ............ ........... DCA ... NYC ... BOS ... (.C.) ... ORD ... ATL ... IAH ... (.E.) .... Total Score
________________________________________________________________________________
....Annual (cum) values ......... +0.9 .. +0.6 .. +1.2 ........ ... --0.1 .. --0.3 .. +0.3 ...................... Best score awards
_________________________________________________________________________(for stns,divs,total,months won)

 

01 RODNEY S .....................928 .. 856 .. 910 ... 2694 ... .. 623 .. 790 ... 750 .... 2163 ..... 4857 _ 231132 31 16 NOV

02 MIDLO SNOW MAKER .... 830 .. 766 .. 840 .... 2436 ... ... 667 .. 728 .. 782 .... 2177 ..... 4613 _ 311003 01 9

03 WXDUDE64 ................... 794 .. 776 .. 810 ..... 2380 ... ... 709 .. 658 .. 734 .... 2101 ...... 4481 _ 010001 11 4 MAR

04 DONSUTHERLAND1 ....... 746 .. 758 .. 854 .... 2358 ... ... 649 .. 676 .. 776 .... 2101 ...... 4459 _ 001002 00 3

 

(05) Consensus .................. 766 .. 754 .. 870 .... 2390 ... .... 609 .. 597 ... 738 .... 1944 ..... 4334 _ 113000 00 5

(05) Normal ....................... 686 .. 746 .. 782 .... 2214 ... ... 678 .. 642 .. 698 .... 2018 ..... 4232 _ 011021 00 5

 

 

05 BKVIKING ..................... 708 .. 708 .. 814 .... 2230 ... ... 720 .. 578 .. 700 .... 1998 ..... 4228 _ 100010 00 2

 

06 MN TRANSPLANT ........... 698 .. 758 .. 778 .... 2234 ... ... 607 .. 667 .. 696 .... 1970 ..... 4204 _ 011100 00 3 SEP

07 SD ................................ 758 .. 770 .. 801 .... 2329 ... ... 638 .. 567 .. 645 .... 1850 ..... 4179 _ 211100 01 6

08 MALLOW ....................... 730 .. 758 .. 840 .... 2328 ... ... 486 .. 602 .. 732 .... 1820 ..... 4148 _ 010211 00 5 JAN,JUL

09 BLAZESS556 .................. 731 .. 714 .. 827 .... 2272 ... ... 635 .. 578 .. 637 .... 1850 .... 4122

10 UNCLE W ....................... 666 .. 702 .. 734 .... 2102 ... .. 583 .. 658 .. 710 .... 1951 ..... 4053 _ 000011 00 2 AUG

 

11 ROGER SMITH ................ 668 .. 620 .. 690 .... 1978 ... ... 681 .. 632 .. 672 .... 1985 ..... 3963 _ 012211 11 9 JUN

12 ISOTHERM ..................... 704 .. 646 .. 718 .... 2068 ... ... 560 .. 577 .. 756 .... 1893 ..... 3961 _ 101111 02 7 MAY

13 INUDAW ........................ 714 .. 726 .. 880 .... 2320 ... ... 567 .. 453 .. 618 .... 1638 ..... 3958 _ 001000 00 1 OCT-r

14 STEBO ........................... 594 .. 664 .. 800 .... 2058 ... ... 662 .. 514 .. 590 .... 1766 ..... 3824 _ 101010 10 4

15 GOOBAGOOBA ................ 661 .. 620 .. 693 .... 1974 ... ... 671 .. 456 .. 712 .... 1839 ..... 3813 _ 100000 00 1

 

16 CHICAGO STORM ........... 698 .. 703 .. 777 .... 2178 ... ... 479 .. 527 .. 616 .... 1622 ..... 3800 _ 010000 10 2

17 TOM .............................. 626 .. 665 .. 759 .... 2050 ... ... 597 .. 511 .. 615 .... 1723 ..... 3773

18 DEREK Z ........................ 656 .. 566 .. 605 .... 1827 ... ... 528 .. 568 .. 712 .... 1808 ..... 3635 _ 010010 00 2

19 SKIERINVERMONT .*2..... 678 .. 683 .. 684 .... 2045 ... ... 511 .. 502 .. 537 .... 1550 ..... 3595 _ 000001 00 1

20 SACRUS .*2.................... 619 .. 637 .. 703 .... 1959 ... ... 525 .. 506 ... 590 .... 1621 ..... 3580 _ 002110 00 4 APR

 

21 HUDSONVALLEY21 .*1..... 647 .. 646 .. 617 .... 1910 ... ... 599 .. 530 .. 524 .... 1653 ...... 3563

22 ELLINWOOD *2............... 654 .. 622 .. 698 .... 1974 ... ... 415 .. 525 .. 596 .... 1536 .... 3510 _ 100001 00 2

23 CHICAGO WX .*2............ 628 .. 614 .. 676 .... 1918 ... ... 495 .. 461 .. 616 .... 1572 .... 3490 _ 101101 10 5

24 DAMAGE IN TOLLAND .... 618 .. 607 .. 657 .... 1882 ... ... 500 .. 517 .. 577 .... 1594 ..... 3476 _ 111101 01 6

25 METALICWX366*4 ........... 577 .. 549 .. 519 .... 1645 ... ... 463 .. 535 .. 456 .... 1454 ..... 3099

 

26 H2OTOWN_WX..*5 .......... 475 .. 444 .. 501 .... 1420 ... ... 225 .. 297 .. 356 ..... 878 ...... 2298 _ 002010 10 4

27 ANDY HB*6 ..................... 372 .. 362 .. 372 .... 1106 ... ... 340 .. 320 .. 326 ..... 986 ..... 2092

28 NZUCKER*7 ..................... 265 .. 320 .. 282 ..... 867 ... ... 252 .. 274 .. 298 ..... 824 ..... 1691 _ 010000 00 1

29 OHLEARY*7 ..................... 316 .. 260 .. 250 ..... 826 .... ... 196 .. 262 .. 265 .... 723 ..... 1549

30 POTTERCOUNTYWXOBS*6.309 .. 285 .. 345 ..... 939 ... .... 93 .. 173 .. 232 ...... 498 ..... 1437

 

31 TENMAN JOHNSON *8 ...... 196 .. 234 .. 252 .... 682 ... ... 242 .. 184 .. 204 .... 630 ...... 1312

32 MIKE VENTRICE*8 ............ 202 .. 202 .. 202 .... 606 ... ... 222 .. 250 .. 210 ..... 682 ..... 1288 _ 000100 00 1

33 SRAIN*7 .......................... 200 .. 264 .. 320 ..... 784 ... ... 129 .. 156 .. 212 ..... 497 ..... 1281

34 FRIVOLOUSZ21*7 ............. 258 .. 225 .. 289 ..... 772 ... ... 175 .. 155 .. 159 ..... 489 ..... 1261 _ 010100 00 2

35 I.NEED.SNOW*8 .............. 249 .. 261 .. 215 ..... 725 ... ... 192 .. 171 .. 132 .... 495 ..... 1220 _ 100010 11 4 FEB

36 MR TORCHEY*7 .............. 242 .. 228 .. 250 ..... 720 ... ... 129 .. 149 .. 188 ..... 466 ..... 1186 _ 001010 00 2

37 INTENSE BLIZZ 2014 *9 ... 152 .. 164 .. 188 ... 504 ... ..... 84 .. 120 .. 106 .... 310 ..... 814
38 WEATHERDUDE*8 ........... 101 .. 134 .. 183 .... 418 ... .... 74 ... 98 .. 132 ..... 304 ...... 722

39 WHITEOUTMD*9 ................ 90 .. 114 .. 140 ... 344 ... ... 104 .. 46 .. 172 ..... 322 ...... 666 _ 001001 00 2

40 CPICK79*9 ...................... 126 ... 78 .. 158 .... 362 ... ..... 99 .. 104 .. 86 ..... 289 ....... 651

 

41 SKISHEEP*9 ...................... 66 ... 98 .. 150 .... 314 ... ..... 79 ... 86 .. 138 ...... 303 ..... 617

42 BRAD1551*9 ..................... 74 .. 118 ..100 ..... 292 ... ..... 64 ... 68 ...162 ..... 294 ...... 586 _ 010000 00 1

43 FORKYFORK *10................. 98 ... 96 ... 82 ..... 276 .... .... 78 ... 98 ... 92 ..... 268 ...... 544 _ 110000 00 2 OCT

44 EDUARDO*10..................... 92 ... 88 ... 90 .... 270 .... ..... 52 ... 68 ... 92 ..... 212 ...... 482
45 QVECTORMAN*9 .............. 150 ... 60 ... 82 .... 292 ... ..... 52 ... 68 ... 12 ..... 132 ...... 424 _ 100000 00 1
46 B.IRVING*10 ..................... 94 ... 70 ... 96 ..... 260 ... ..... 70 ... 74 ... 12 ..... 156 ...... 416

47 APACHE TROUT *10 ............ 44 ... 56 ... 76 .... 176 ... ..... 90 ... 40 ... 98 ..... 228 ..... 404

48 WINTER WX LUVR *10 ........ 66 ... 46 ... 46 .... 158 ... ..... 64 ... 98 ... 56 ..... 218 ..... 376 _ 000010 00 1

49 FREE_MAN *10 ................... 38 ... 56 ... 88 .... 180 ... ..... 62 ... 43 ... 85 ..... 190 ...... 370

50 BRIAN 5671*10 .................. 68 ... 96 ... 68 ..... 232 ... ..... 36 ... 72 ... 18 ..... 126 ...... 358

51 HOCKEYINC*10 ................... 64 ... 38 ... 68 ..... 170 ... ..... 88 ... 44 ... 28 .... 160 ...... 330

52 NYCSUBURBS*10 ................ 58 ... 84 ... 72 ..... 214 ... ..... 14 ... 32 ... 62 ..... 108 ..... 322
53 STORMITECTURE*10 .......... 29 ... 55 ... 94 ..... 178 ... ..... 02 ... 00 ... 74 ..... 076 ..... 254
54 SHADES*10 ........................ 32 ... 60 ... 46 ..... 138 ... .... 00 ... 18 ... 82 ..... 100 ...... 238

55 TSTEEL*10 ......................... 20 ... 40 ... 40 ..... 100 ... ..... 54 ... 13 ... 42 ..... 109 ..... 209
56 CANDYMANCOLUMBUSGA*10.30 .. 28 .. 32 ...... 090 .... .... 40 ... 00 ... 60 ..... 100 ...... 190
57 69APORCUPINE*10  ............. 02 ... 00 ... 06 ..... 008 ... ..... 00 ... 12 ... 12 ..... 024 ...... 032
58 OKIE333*10.......................... 00 ... 00 ... 10 ..... 010 ... ..... 00 ... 00 ... 00 ..... 000 ...... 010

59 GD0815 *10 ......................... 00 ... 00 ... 00 ..... 000 ... ..... 06 ... 00 ... 00 ..... 006 ...... 006

 

 

_______________________________________________________________________

 

Notes:

 

1. After forecaster name, *followed by number indicates number of missed forecasts.

 

2. For best station forecasts each month, listed after total score, the + sign indicates more than one best score for that station. Numbers indicate months with high score. Inudaw (10r) noted as highest regular entrant Oct, as forkyfork with one entry has that high score.

 

3. Best score awards now made easier to read, number code for each forecaster tells you how many months have been won in each of six station categories followed (in bold) by classic and expanded totals. The final red number tells you how many awards in total have been won. Any tie counts as an award and any human high score as opposed to consensus or normal counts also. Numbers after red totals are months led -- See note 2 re Inudaw for 10r.