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November 2013 forecast contest -- temperatures

Roger Smith

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Provisional scoring for October shows that the annual contest is tightening up, so no pressure ... just six forecasts and a new bonus which is of course optional.

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH

 

List as usual your six temperature forecasts in anomaly format then if you want to enter the winter bonus question, give dates for each station's first 0.1" snowfall. For any station you have an option of saying no measurable snow all winter (just blank the guess like this IAH no* ). If ORD or any other station have a measurable snowfall before Nov 1 then the contest validation will be next date Nov 1 or later.

 

Winner will be entry with smallest cumulative date errors. Contest is settled when all six stations record first measurable snow or Apr 15, if no snow by then at any station.

 

I will throw in my forecasts which I may edit before table time.

 

--1.2 __ --1.4 __ --0.7 _____ --2.0 __ --1.5 __ +0.2

 

11/18 _ 11/17 _ 11/13 ____ 11/03* __ 12/19 __ 1/27/2014

 

*ORD edited on Oct 31 0135h

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WEATHER53

WEATHER53

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Posted

Provisional scoring for October shows that the annual contest is tightening up, so no pressure ... just six forecasts and a new bonus which is of course optional.

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH

 

List as usual your six temperature forecasts in anomaly format then if you want to enter the winter bonus question, give dates for each station's first 0.1" snowfall. For any station you have an option of saying no measurable snow all winter (just blank the guess like this IAH no* ). If ORD or any other station have a measurable snowfall before Nov 1 then the contest validation will be next date Nov 1 or later.

 

Winner will be entry with smallest cumulative date errors. Contest is settled when all six stations record first measurable snow or Apr 15, if no snow by then at any station.

 

I will throw in my forecasts which I may edit before table time.

 

--1.2 __ --1.4 __ --0.7 _____ --2.0 __ --1.5 __ +0.2

 

11/18 _ 11/17 _ 11/13 ____ 11/04 __ 12/19 __ 1/27/2014

-1.0DCA

-1.5NYC

-1.5BOS

-1.5ORD

-2.2ATL

-0.5IAH

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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November forecasts

 

 

 

Forecaster ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ First snowfalls (dates)*

_________________________________________________________________________________

 

GD0815 ______________ +4.1 _ +3.7 _ +3.0 ____ +1.9 _ +3.2 _ +3.5 ___ 52..52..34..20..77..77

MN_Transplant  (-16%) _ +2.4 _ +2.0 _ +1.7 ____ +1.1 _ +2.2 _ +0.3

DerekZ _______________ +2.2 _ +2.4 _ +1.7 ____ +1.0 _ +0.6 _ --0.1 ___ 81..41..28..15...--..--

stebo ________________ +2.2 _ +1.4 _ +1.0 ____ --0.3 _ +3.0 _ +1.5 ___ 45..22..22..20...77..--

uncle W ______________ +2.0 _ +2.1 _ +1.5 ____ +1.5 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 ___ 54..27..27..25..76..75

Mallow _______________ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ____ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.5

metalicwx366 __________ +1.9 _ +1.7 _ +1.2 ____ +0.6 _ +1.4 _ +1.4 ___ 40..40..31..27...--..--

bkviking _______________+1.8 _ +1.7 _ +1.6 ____ +0.2 _ +0.8 _ +0.2 ___ 58..52..44..34..79..--

blazess556 __ (-1%) ____ +1.8 _ +1.6 _ +1.3 ____ --0.7 _ +1.3 _ +1.5 ___ 41..29..23..20...--..--

Isotherm ______________ +1.8 _ +1.4 _ +1.1 ____ --0.5 _ +1.1 _ +1.2 ___ 45..27..27..22...--..--

Inudaw _______________ +1.8 _ +1.3 _ +1.1 ____ +0.5 _ +0.2 _ --0.5 ___ 45..38..38..29..89..--

goobagooba ___________ +1.4 _ +1.4 _ +0.7 ____ --1.0 _ +2.2 _ +0.4 ___ 38..30..17..15..80..54

 

Consensus _____________ +1.4 _ +1.3 _ +0.9 ____ +0.2 _ +1.1 _ +0.5 ___ 50..38..27..25..89..--

 

Midlo_Snow_Maker ______+1.3 _ +1.1 _ +0.7 ____ --0.8 _ +0.5 _ +1.2 ___ 39..39..30..25..90..--

Tom __ (-3%) __________ +1.1 _ +1.3 _ +0.9 ____ +1.2 _ +1.1 _ +0.8 ___ 49..45..32..26..86..--

SD ___________________ +1.0 _ +0.8 _ +0.3 ____ +0.4 _ +1.3 _ +1.5 ___ 37..28..21..08..74..80

Wx Hype ______________ +0.9 _ +0.8 _ +0.3 ____ +0.2 _ +2.8 _ +2.0 ___ --..40..30..25...--..--

wxdude64 _____________ +0.9 _ +0.7 _ +0.5 ____ --1.4 _ +1.6 _ --0.5 ___ 50..30..17..16..63..72

donsutherland.1 ________ +0.8 _ +0.8 _ +0.5 ____ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ +1.3 ___ 51..47..42..30...--..--

hudsonvalley21 _________ +0.3 _ +1.2 _ +0.9 ____ --1.1 _ --0.4 _ +0.1 ___ 59..41..42..25..74..82

Chicago Storm __________ +0.1 __ 0.0 _ --0.1 ____ +0.3 _ +0.1 _ +0.3 ___ 43..37..27..27..68..--

 

Normal ________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ______ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____  45..38..31..20..99..--

 

Tenman Johnson ________ --1.0 _ --1.5 _ --1.5 ____ --1.5 _ --2.2 _ --0.5

Roger Smith ___________ --1.2 _ --1.4 _ --0.7 ____ --2.0 _ --1.5 _ +0.2 ____ 18..17..13..03..49..88

RodneyS ______________ --2.4 _ --2.7 _ --2.5 ____ --1.2 _ --2.3 _ --1.7 ____ 56..31..45..14.106..--

_________________________________________________________________________

 

23 forecasts so far, consensus is now the 12th ranked forecast (median).

 

*dates are Nov 1 = 01, Dec 1 = 31, Jan 1 = 62, Feb 1 = 93 etc. ... -- means no snow forecast

 

My "normals" for snowfall dates are approximate based on historical records, ATL seems to have more winters with a snowfall than without but average first fall is well into February for these, and Houston appears to have measurable snowfall in fewer than one-quarter of all winters so normal would be no first snow. Of the cases that exist, average seems to be mid-February. Consensus in this bonus question based on the 20 entries, so average of 10th and 11th ranked (from lowest which is earliest) is used to derive a median date.

 

These consensus values will be changed if we get more entries. With our two leaders (likely to remain that way after October scoring) RodneyS and Midlo_Snow_Maker quite separated in their forecasts, some sort of major change is likely, either one will move well ahead, or some in the pack will come through to join them.

 

Good luck, scoring for October is available provisionally already and will be finalized and merged into annual scoring later today, I hope.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Here's how I propose to score the snowfall bonus.

 

The four stations likely to see snow (DCA,NYC,BOS,ORD) will be worth 20 points each and the other two (ATL,IAH) will count for 10.

 

Points will be deducted on the basis of rank order from a top score of 18/20 which can be increased to 19 or 20 if you are one day out (19) or right on (20). From there on down, the rest of the field get 17,16 etc which can also be increased by one if there's two or more perfect scores ahead of yours. Scores are assigned in order, for example, if five people happened to be perfect, then 6th place would score 13 etc.

 

One contestant (Wx Hype) predicts no snow for DCA and if he's right, he gets 20 and everyone else gets zero. Assuming he'll be wrong (by 0.1" at least) his arbitrary date is April 16th but his maximum score would be 10 if (as I doubt) his guess is better than 9th.

 

For Atlanta and Houston, the ten points will go to all "no snow" forecasts in the event that there is no snow before April 16, and otherwise will be give out in order regardless of date error, with 10 to the closest guess etc. All Atlanta guesses of actual snow would qualify for at least one point. Houston has too few for that to be a problem.

 

So that's how we'll score, and the few who declined can still get in on the fun before end of this week. If anyone who made a forecast wants to edit anything (except my busted ORD but I won't change any now) to be fair you can edit by end of this week, and forum members who aren't into temperature forecasting can submit a forecast too. See post 1 for the rules.

 

Deadline for any other entries will be 0600h Thursday Nov 7th.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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First Snowfall bonus contest

 

 

With 0.4" reported at ORD today (Nov 11)  points are awarded as shown in the table below. All other numbers refer to predicted dates for other locations. (added 29th, 0.4" also breaks the snow barrier for ATL on Nov 27. Scores are now adjusted to reflect this rather surprising fact.

 

 

Forecaster ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS_ORD_ATL_ IAH______ Points ___ Day errors

 

GD0815 ______________  52....52....34....12....04...77............... 16 ........... 59

DerekZ _______________ 81....41....28....16.....--.....--............... 16 ......... 146

stebo ________________ 45....22....22....12....04....--............... 16 ........... 59

uncle W ______________ 54....27....27....08....05....75.............. 13 ........... 63

metalicwx366 __________40....40....31....03.....--.....--............... 03 .......... 156

bkviking ______________ 58....52....44....00....02....--............... 02 ........... 75

blazess556 ____________ 41....29....23....12.....--.....--............... 12 .......... 149

Isotherm ______________ 45....27....27....09.....--.....--............... 09 ......... 151

Inudaw _______________ 45....38....38....01....01.....--............... 02 ........... 80

goobagooba ___________ 38....30....17....16....01....54............... 17 ........... 57

 

Consensus _____________ 50....38....27....08....01....--............... 09 ........... 76

 

Midlo_Snow_Maker ______ 39....39....30....08....01....--............... 09 ........... 77

Tom __________________ 49....45....32....04....01....--............... 05 ........... 74

SD ___________________ 37....28....21....18....07....80............... 25 ........... 50

Wx Hype ______________  --....40....30....08.....--.....--............... 08 .......... 154

wxdude64 _____________ 50....30....17....14....09....72............... 23 .......... 41

donsutherland.1 ________ 51....47....42....00.....--.....--............... 00 ........... 159

hudsonvalley21 _________ 59....41....42....08....06....82.............. 14 ........... 61

Chicago Storm __________43....37....27....03....08....--............... 11 ........... 57

 

Normal ________________ 45....38....31....12....01.....--.............. 13 ........... 81

 

Roger Smith ___________ 18....17....13....13....10.....88.............. 23 ........... 30

RodneyS ______________ 56....31....45....18...01....--................ 19 ............ 82

 

 

____________________________________________________

 

 

Numbers in bold are scores.

Numbers for cities in regular type are forecasts (Days from Nov 1) ... total day errors are shown along with total points to date. Originally I said we would go with accumulated day errors, then I got thinking how to score cases with no snow actuals or forecasts and changed to the point system. But I will keep a log of both systems, I guess for no snow, the error is zero days if forecast and actual are no snow and for cases of actual zero and forecast dates I will go with actual April 16, and vice versa as with the points system. Hopefully it will snow at all stations, then whatever convention I use the date error should be smallest for close forecasts. Anyway we can compare the two systems and see if the same person wins both ways.

 

Scoring system explained in post 25 previously, max of 20 for DCA,NYC,BOS,ORD, max of 10 for ATL and IAH. Scores are based on rank order of errors, 20/20 requires correct date, 19/20 requires one day error. For Chicago, the two best forecasts were +3 and -3 days and scored 18/20. Normal and consensus are scored by their rank order but lower ranked forecasters are not penalized by the points awarded to normal and consensus.

 

This post will be updated each time a new station registers this month, then the table will be transferred to the December contest thread if not already complete.

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