Possible early detection for SSW event underway ...

[Typhoon Tip]

I think we are possibly heading toward an earlier SSW event than is normal, when comparing the data (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/)  ...which goes back to 1979.   If you study the content of the links provided at this site, you will see that most SSWs tend to take place from mid-winter, onwards.  However, there are a couple of exceptions in the database, where temperature permutations emerged early, both cool and warm; so it may not be unprecedented to do so. 

 

I want to stress the "possibly" aspect here;  this is hypothesis/experimental.  

 

One thing we do know is that the more Ozone a parcel of air contains, the more heat it can retain.  That simple notion, rooted in scientific fact, is what drives the plausibility.  Take note of the the following product provided by CPC:

 

 

 

...Here, we see that collocated with the current weakly emergine warm anomaly noted to exist in the very elevated 1 hPa sigma level(s) are moderate, positive Ozone anomalies.  This Ozone area is large ... a-priori suggesting that it has a greater significance in describing the character of the field.  If some cracker jack math mind wants to calculate the Eigenvalues we could be certain ... but for the sake of discussion, that's a massive area.  And through recognizing it's mass, and combining the earlier facet about it's ability to retain heat, enters the next step in the hypothesis. 

 

In recent week(s), there have been recurving typhoons in the western Pacific. This activity has a known correlation with disrupting the flow in the northern Pacific, causing it to enter the AB, or meridional circulation.  This usually features the production (eventually) of ridging in the EPO domain (-EPO).  It also can extend southward into the PNA domain, causing it to tend positive in character.  This is a separate discussion, but I use it to preface for the next point.   What these typhoons do is flux a large quantity of latent heat into higher latitudes, in addition to their conversion to baroclinic, extratropical systems, usurping the downstream L/W procession/orientation.  The region where these planetary waves (WAA) terminates is within the region of the positive Ozone anomalies, above. 

 

So the hypothesis here is simple:  Does this region absorb these warm events with more efficiency, and perhaps triggers a SSW?   The question may also be reconstructed around just warming the stratospheric mid and upper levels in general, too.   

 

It will be interesting to test this idea over the next 10 days as Francisco and Lekima complete their migration/transformation into the Pacific circulation (notwithstanding their predecessors).  

[toronto blizzard]

Very interesting

[Typhoon Tip]

To add... the mechanism might be that warming tropopausal layers by terminating WAA events, would increase the amount of OLR ... which would pass through the higher Ozone where particles would absorb some of this as heat retention.  

[Met1985]

Very interesting and good read.

[CoastalWx]

Interesting ob Tip. I guess we'll see how this goes.

[Typhoon Tip]

This is all I kept hearing during the 2011-2012 winter that never was and we all know how that worked out. Not to rain on the parade but I'll believe it when I see it.

 

There was one non-propagating warm flash near mid winter, and then a 2nd one that did show propagation behavior, but not until March, during the 2011-2012 winter.  Judging by the "tone" of your post, it sounds as though you are thinking that winter's handicap was all because of the stratosphere ?    That's ... demonstratively ignorant if that is what is being perceived here -- please take that the right way.   The stratosphere's relationship in the overall characterization of a winter is one one factor.     

 

We need to point out something out for those that are less familiar with the heretofore and on-going science of the stratosphere-troposphere relationship:

 

Downward moving warm anomalies are more correlated to -AO (when time lag is supplied) than static warm nodes that do not demonstrate this propagating behavior. Moreover, the AO has been seen meandering positive and negative despite the presence of either.  Usually, however, a -AO will register given a sufficiently strong down-welling anomaly, at about the time the warm anomaly begins to affect the level of the tropopause.  

 

Fyi, why the winter of 2011-2012 sucked has other reasons.

[Nittany88]

There was one non-propagating warm flash near mid winter, and then a 2nd one that did show propagation behavior, but not until March, during the 2011-2012 winter.  Judging by the "tone" of your post, it sounds as though you are thinking that winter's handicap was all because of the stratosphere ?    That's ... demonstratively ignorant if that is what is being perceived here -- please take that the right way.   The stratosphere's relationship in the overall characterization of a winter is one one factor.     

 

We need to point out something out for those that are less familiar with the heretofore and on-going science of the stratosphere-troposphere relationship:

 

Downward moving warm anomalies are more correlated to -AO (when time lag is supplied) than static warm nodes that do not demonstrate this propagating behavior. Moreover, the AO has been seen meandering positive and negative despite the presence of either.  Usually, however, a -AO will register given a sufficiently strong down-welling anomaly, at about the time the warm anomaly begins to affect the level of the tropopause.  

 

Fyi, why the winter of 2011-2012 sucked has other reasons.

 

I deleted my previous post prior to your response because I didn't like the tone it conveyed.

 

But that being said, all I kept hearing from the pro-winter snow-nuts out there back in 2011-2012 was saying "Winter is only 2 weeks away because of a SSW Event!" Over and Over again. That was the mantra ALLL winter and how some of the long range forecasters kept trying to justify their colder than normal forecasts which were dead wrong. Even when it was blatantly obvious all hope was lost, they still kept running with the "SSW Event" Hype.

[Nittany88]

Perhaps it was just weenies going out of control about something they didn't know about or poor model performance. Don't take it as anything against the research and your forecast, I'm just going to remain skeptical.

[Typhoon Tip]

Some of this thread -- it turns out -- may be re-inventing the wheel.  NASA has web-published these findings already:

 

"Ozone generates heat in the stratosphere, both by absorbing the sun's ultraviolet radiation and by absorbing upwelling infrared radiation from the lower atmosphere (troposphere). Consequently, decreased ozone in the stratosphere results in lower temperatures. Observations show that over recent decades, the mid to upper stratosphere (from 30 to 50 km above the Earth's surface) has cooled by 1° to 6° C (2° to 11° F). This stratospheric cooling has taken place at the same time that greenhouse gas amounts in the lower atmosphere (troposphere) have risen. The two phenomena may be linked...."

 

- ha, I even posted that exact thought a few posts ago... 

 

But taking this further.. that adds credence to the hypothesis that an ensuing warming in the stratosphere may be nearing.  Currently, that is not modeled to do so -- but I wonder if the models are taking into account the bombardment of heat flux arriving from a flurry of recurving typhoons over recent weeks and on-going.  

 

Having said all this, it is not even clear what affects it may have.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Perhaps it was just weenies going out of control about something they didn't know about. Don't take it as anything against the research and your forecast, I'm just going to remain skeptical.

 

 

That's fine -- 

 

I believe though that people not fully understanding the science are running with it and doing just that.   You should always be skeptical, in life for that matter. Heh. 

[ORH_wxman]

 

Perhaps it was just weenies going out of control about something they didn't know about. Don't take it as anything against the research and your forecast, I'm just going to remain skeptical.

 

The mid-winter warming event in 2011-2012 did produce tremendous blocking...especially in late January and February that winter, but we never benefitted from it. Its what cause all the record cold and snow in Asia, Europe, and even snow into northern Africa.

[Typhoon Tip]

 

 

The mid-winter warming event in 2011-2012 did produce tremendous blocking...especially in late January and February that winter, but we never benefitted from it. Its what cause all the record cold and snow in Asia, Europe, and even snow into northern Africa.

 

That's an excellent point that I had neglected to mention in my original response!   

 

Yeah, cold conveyors don't always get established evenly around the hemisphere.   That's certainly true. I recall something similar happened in 2006-2007, the year of the never ending autumn. It took until mid to late January to finally shake the warmth.  There was an SSW that year, and the AO tanked, but off-loaded almost all the cold over Eurasia, and we had to wait until the blocking rotated around into a favorable position to get us in on the action, which really was February that year.   

[CoastalWx]

2011-2012 was the epitomy of a big middle finger. Nittany Will and John are right....the SSW is real...but the outcome of that event just went to the wrong side of the globe..thanks in part to the AK vortex too.

[chionomaniac]

I think what we are seeing at the 1hPa level is a slight warming in response to the increase in wave 1 activity following the strong Asian MT.

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltaum.90day.gif

 

This has been reflected somewhat into the upper reaches of the stratosphere and will introduce ozone which assists with the warming as you have described.

 

 

 

However, even though this is quite strong for this time of year I suspect that this is as far as it gets and that the cooling of the polar stratosphere will overtake this wave 1 activity and that in fact we are more likely to see a period of vortex intensification as an overall net response due to the repositioning of the vortex that the wave activity has induced. This can be seen quite clearly in the 10 day forecasts at all levels of the strat.

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=all&forecast=f240&lng=eng

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I think what we are seeing at the 1hPa level is a slight warming in response to the increase in wave 1 activity following the strong Asian MT.

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltaum.90day.gif

 

This has been reflected somewhat into the upper reaches of the stratosphere and will introduce ozone which assists with the warming as you have described.

 

 

 

However, even though this is quite strong for this time of year I suspect that this is as far as it gets and that the cooling of the polar stratosphere will overtake this wave 1 activity and that in fact we are more likely to see a period of vortex intensification as an overall net response due to the repositioning of the vortex that the wave activity has induced. This can be seen quite clearly in the 10 day forecasts at all levels of the strat.

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=all&forecast=f240&lng=eng

 

 

There's room in there for error, though.    Have to talk to the modelers to know, but it is not abundantly clear how the tropical flux is being handled in this as the -WPO jams these doses into the higher latitudes of the NP.   That is going to introduce a deep OLR in that region, and as the NASA studies have pointed out, Ozone is sensitive to absorption from upper tropopause layers.   

 

I don't think T. Lekima even was on the board when this modeling was taking place.

[Nittany88]

2011-2012 was the epitomy of a big middle finger. Nittany Will and John are right....the SSW is real...but the outcome of that event just went to the wrong side of the globe..thanks in part to the AK vortex too.

 

 

That's an excellent point that I had neglected to mention in my original response!   

 

Yeah, cold conveyors don't always get established evenly around the hemisphere.   That's certainly true. I recall something similar happened in 2006-2007, the year of the never ending autumn. It took until mid to late January to finally shake the warmth.  There was an SSW that year, and the AO tanked, but off-loaded almost all the cold over Eurasia, and we had to wait until the blocking rotated around into a favorable position to get us in on the action, which really was February that year.   

 

Yeah I guess my issue was with people using this as the sole reason that it was going to get cold, without looking at anything else, simply saying SSW = Cold .

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah I guess my issue was with people using this as the sole reason that it was going to get cold, without looking at anything else, simply saying SSW = Cold .

 

 

Yeah, short sighted...

 

You know it's interesting.. In the 1970s there was some brutally cold winters.  Maybe not of all time, but they were up there in the stats. Will would know...  But I am wondering if those were AO years that happened to favor our side of the hemisphere.  

[ORH_wxman]

 

Yeah, short sighted...

 

You know it's interesting.. In the 1970s there was some brutally cold winters.  Maybe not of all time, but they were up there in the stats. Will would know...  But I am wondering if those were AO years that happened to favor our side of the hemisphere.

 

3 of the top 11 coldest winters on record in the U.S. occurred during the 1970s including the coldest on record in 1978-1979. Amazingly they all occurred in consecutive years (1976-1977, 1977-1978, and 1978-1979)

Here's each winter's 500mb anomaly chart in order:

[CoastalWx]

I think what we are seeing at the 1hPa level is a slight warming in response to the increase in wave 1 activity following the strong Asian MT.

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltaum.90day.gif

 

This has been reflected somewhat into the upper reaches of the stratosphere and will introduce ozone which assists with the warming as you have described.

 

ecmwfzm_ha1_a12.gif

 

ecmwfzm_ta1_a12.gif

 

However, even though this is quite strong for this time of year I suspect that this is as far as it gets and that the cooling of the polar stratosphere will overtake this wave 1 activity and that in fact we are more likely to see a period of vortex intensification as an overall net response due to the repositioning of the vortex that the wave activity has induced. This can be seen quite clearly in the 10 day forecasts at all levels of the strat.

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=all&forecast=f240&lng=eng

 

Thanks for chiming in. I mentioned the MT in the other thread so glad it's doing something.  Hopefully if it does cool down we can get some sort of warming later in the month.

[CoastalWx]

We've also seen the PV take shape more often than not on the other side of the globe in recent years. Not exactly sure why other than perhaps luck, but Europe has had some brutal winters.

[Typhoon Tip]

 

 

3 of the top 11 coldest winters on record in the U.S. occurred during the 1970s including the coldest on record in 1978-1979. Amazingly they all occurred in consecutive years (1976-1977, 1977-1978, and 1978-1979)

Here's each winter's 500mb anomaly chart in order:

 

 

That's insane!   man.... it's like the entire polar domain is ripped inside out...  So I guess, yeah, the -AO favored our side

[Snow_Miser]

50 hPa has seen some warming in the Arctic. Will be interesting to see how this progresses along.

 

[weatherwiz]

Certainly some signals the stratosphere may be much more of a player this year, especially with ENSO likely residing in the neutral territory and the Pacific perhaps not being a driver to the pattern.  Now if we can get some awesome SSW hopefully it occurs right over the eastern US