Jonger Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 https://www.google.com/search?q=winter+2012-2013+forecast&espv=210&es_sm=93&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=CyCAUof7LOGyyAGr9oGwDw&ved=0CAkQ_AUoAQ&biw=1920&bih=947#es_sm=93&espv=210&q=winter+2011-2012+forecast&tbm=isch&imgdii=_ Check out all of these, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 https://www.google.com/search?q=winter+2012-2013+forecast&espv=210&es_sm=93&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=CyCAUof7LOGyyAGr9oGwDw&ved=0CAkQ_AUoAQ&biw=1920&bih=947#es_sm=93&espv=210&q=winter+2011-2012+forecast&tbm=isch&imgdii=_ Check out all of these, Yeah, I kinda wish there was some less wintry outlook to help balance things out! lol If we are mild with not a lot of snow it will likely be due to the SE ridge being too pumped up/west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Yeah, I kinda wish there was some less wintry outlook to help balance things out! lol If we are mild with not a lot of snow it will likely be due to the SE ridge being too pumped up/west. Just a bit of searching, the CPC skill at winter forecasts since 2000 is below 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Major bomb on the 12z Euro from around 168 hrs out to the end of the run. The baroclinic zone is ridiculous. The GGEM idea. Hot link: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Yeah, I kinda wish there was some less wintry outlook to help balance things out! lol If we are mild with not a lot of snow it will likely be due to the SE ridge being too pumped up/west. Go read Don S. He's about to induce weenie panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 So, could what the Euro and GGEM show be evidence of the Lezak Recurring Cycle? http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/search?q=LRC This would be about 45 days out from the historic snowfall event in the Dakota's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Go read Don S. He's about to induce weenie panic. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Link? I think he's talking about this thread... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41600-winter-2013-14-medium-range-discussion/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 The EURO maps you speak of... Looks like November will stay active. When I posted OP maps showing warmth in that time frame. There was a bunch of posts dismissing OP models being posted for that time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 When I posted OP maps showing warmth in that time frame. There was a bunch of posts dismissing OP models being posted for that time frame To be fair, the GFS Ensembles as a whole tend to mirror the Euro more, with a trough, not necessarily that deep, but a trough nonetheless in that timeframe. I don't think that 7-10 day timeframe will be warmer than normal, and if so, it won't be a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 When I posted OP maps showing warmth in that time frame. There was a bunch of posts dismissing OP models being posted for that time frame It does look like a mild and wet weekend coming, but then we both cool off sharply again. Go read Don S. He's about to induce weenie panic. Yeah no kidding. Looks like he's focusing on the eastern third of the country, which puts up near the western borderline. Good points about the Pacific making or breaking our winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 It does look like a mild and wet weekend coming, but then we both cool off sharply again. Yeah no kidding. Looks like he's focusing on the eastern third of the country, which puts up near the western borderline. Good points about the Pacific making or breaking our winter. Hes talking about a lot of the country but focus obviously lies out east. Remember though, our location and northern latitude puts us in a whole different boat than, say, the NYC crowd. Often times things they want (regarding NAO for instance) are not what we want. Plus, the schitzophrenic CFS that he uses has already flopped back to a closer to normal temperature December and actually looks decent for the winter as whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Hes talking about a lot of the country but focus obviously lies out east. Remember though, our location and northern latitude puts us in a whole different boat than, say, the NYC crowd. Often times things they want (regarding NAO for instance) are not what we want. Plus, the schitzophrenic CFS that he uses has already flopped back to a closer to normal temperature December and actually looks decent for the winter as whole. Yeah I don't trust those CFSv2 forecasts further than I could throw it beyond a week from the starting of the new month it is projecting for. lol Somewhat +AO and neutral NAO is fine for us, but not for areas 500 miles+ further east and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Yeah I don't trust those CFSv2 forecasts further than I could throw it beyond a week from the starting of the new month it is projecting for. lol Somewhat +AO and neutral NAO is fine for us, but not for areas 500 miles+ further east and south. We have actually had some huge snowstorms with a +NAO actually as well...but no cold lover would want a +NAO all winter for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Hes talking about a lot of the country but focus obviously lies out east. Remember though, our location and northern latitude puts us in a whole different boat than, say, the NYC crowd. Often times things they want (regarding NAO for instance) are not what we want. Plus, the schitzophrenic CFS that he uses has already flopped back to a closer to normal temperature December and actually looks decent for the winter as whole. Yeah I don't trust those CFSv2 forecasts further than I could throw it beyond a week from the starting of the new month it is projecting for. lol Somewhat +AO and neutral NAO is fine for us, but not for areas 500 miles+ further east and south. Many base their analogs on what's going on today. Using that logic, next week's negative AO or neutral might correspond completely different. I would take a +2.0 AO, +1.5 NAO and a -1.2 PNA all day and everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 We have actually had some huge snowstorms with a +NAO actually as well...but no cold lover would want a +NAO all winter for sure. A lot of our best snowstorms and snowy periods, as you've said, were during a +NAO period. I think what is best is a slightly +NAO overall, and one that fluctuates a lot (turns - for a time, during which we get a storm, then rebounds a bit to keep things from getting too cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 The GFS is all over the place even inside of 120 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 GFS wants to bring a second LES event in a few days later, could be an above normal November in lake belts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Encouraging to see the Euro continues to indicate a pretty strong storm system for the 18-19th time frame. That's three runs in a row that it's shown a decent storm wrapping up in the strong baroclinic zone in that time frame. Hope it continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Looks like a decent shot of cold air on the way again next week... any recommendations for a good site to check snowpack progression in the Northern Hemi? I know satellites is best, but... thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Looks like a decent shot of cold air on the way again next week... any recommendations for a good site to check snowpack progression in the Northern Hemi? I know satellites is best, but... thanks! I like this for the US and southern Canada. At this point of the year, sea ice and Asian snowcover is pretty useless information. http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Last year and this year. and finally the year you want NOTHING in common with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Yeah definitely looks better than 2011. Another good site Gilbert: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/snow/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Thanks guys! .....ick at the 2011 comp lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 GFS is looking to have the colder weather hunker down in the extended. Starting to think more and more of the front sided winter could become a reality this season. For the fast few weeks with the passing of each cold front the warmth rebounds. But the duration of the rebound seems to be less and less impressive. This pattern developed just after the 90's in early September when the first cold front passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 After the snowfall yesterday, a lot of private snow plowers have put their plows on their trucks. Actually I saw a plow yesterday. Earliest I've seen one. I would lean towards a front sided winter this time around, but it would still be nice to get decent snowfall in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 The GFS sucks for me cold and dry. Forget that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 To quote a famous snog by Gordon Lightfoot, "Twas the witch of November come stealing." If this should verify at 18z Monday 11/18 based off the 13/0z model run of the ECMWF, there will be a 986mb surface low over or very near Sault Ste Maire. For those that may want to make a trip to southern shores of "Gitche Gumee" you may be treated with quite a sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 The UKMET has this idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 NWS ILN mentioning lake enhanced snow bands and instability snow showers after the storm 5-6 days from now pushes by. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP PUSH IN COLD AIR AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW BANDS AND INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS TUES AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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