RCNYILWX Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 0z Euro is like 30 hours of Lake Effect fetch for NW IN. (The model actually produces precip for only 9-12 of those hours, but still.) Seems like it's shaping up to be a Lake/Porter centric event though can't dismiss the possibility of effects farther west. We're not in NAM range yet but the GFS parameters (and probably Euro too) look pretty impressive and I believe this has a chance to be one of the biggest November LES events in many years for the particular area under the gun. I get to do the public forecast at LOT on Tuesday, should be fun. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 EURO sends a wave along the front late Monday, which could lay some snow down for the lower lakes. DAB probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I get to do the public forecast at LOT on Tuesday, should be fun.Sent from my SCH-I535 Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Seems like it's shaping up to be a Lake/Porter centric event though can't dismiss the possibility of effects farther west. Lake temps in the low 50s would normally call for a major reduction in snow amounts near the shore but I don't believe normal rules apply in this case given the magnitude of the incoming cold air. However, 2 things would argue for slightly lower amounts near the shore: 1) strength of low level flow, which looks strong enough to displace greatest accums a little inland and 2) some uncertainty with temps near the shore - temps could hang slightly above freezing for a while which could cut into amounts. We're not in NAM range yet but the GFS parameters (and probably Euro too) look pretty impressive and I believe this has a chance to be one of the biggest November LES events in many years for the particular area under the gun. Another thing...assuming something like the GFS parameters verify, it looks similar to past events that have produced snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour. So if the band stalls out then it gives an idea of what the high end potential would look like. A potential negative factor with this setup is that much of the lift may be below the DGZ but I'm not sure how much that will hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Seems like it's shaping up to be a Lake/Porter centric event though can't dismiss the possibility of effects farther west. Lake temps in the low 50s would normally call for a major reduction in snow amounts near the shore but I don't believe normal rules apply in this case given the magnitude of the incoming cold air. However, 2 things would argue for slightly lower amounts near the shore: 1) strength of low level flow, which looks strong enough to displace greatest accums a little inland and 2) some uncertainty with temps near the shore - temps could hang slightly above freezing for a while which could cut into amounts. We're not in NAM range yet but the GFS parameters (and probably Euro too) look pretty impressive and I believe this has a chance to be one of the biggest November LES events in many years for the particular area under the gun. One of my profs is a LES guru. He thinks confidence is highest for LaPorte County, and I have to admit today's runs so far have shifted the 850 winds to slightly west of north, so my confidence for a big event at Valpo is down a bit. But man, whoever gets in it is really gonna get it. Someone will probably report 12". Given that it's early season with insane deltaT's and hopefully a wider-than-normal band, maybe we'll manage a good snow here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I thinks Stebo is on the correct track to the upcoming winter. For this fall has been more less averaging out WRT temperatures, warm to start and cooler near the end. With every coaster ride there is highs and lows but typically they cancel each other out thus making a neutral end result. For most brutal cold or heat will be greatly offset by a dump of snow thus making a winter season historic or extremely memorable. As for me living through every snow in the region from start to finish for the last 12 seasons would love to see a continuation of this weather pattern heading into winter. Nature is almost set for winter to begin and the snow and cold will be here before we know it. As a snow contractor nothing makes me cringe more than artic cold high planting itself overhead for a extended period..... Desert winter !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 One of my profs is a LES guru. He thinks confidence is highest for LaPorte County, and I have to admit today's runs so far have shifted the 850 winds to slightly west of north, so my confidence for a big event at Valpo is down a bit. But man, whoever gets in it is really gonna get it. Someone will probably report 12". Given that it's early season with insane deltaT's and hopefully a wider-than-normal band, maybe we'll manage a good snow here too. At first I didn't notice that trend to shift the winds slightly more west on today's runs. It's pretty subtle but there. 925 mb winds try to go N to NNE on the models so as long as that holds up then I'd think it would be hard for the band to focus east of you. Quick look at the 18z NAM shows colder 850 mb temps than other runs. Delta T's would be pushing 25C if that's the case! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 At first I didn't notice that trend to shift the winds slightly more west on today's runs. It's pretty subtle but there. 925 mb winds try to go N to NNE on the models so as long as that holds up then I'd think it would be hard for the band to focus east of you. Quick look at the 18z NAM shows colder 850 mb temps than other runs. Delta T's would be pushing 25C if that's the case! Yeah, that's the other thing. Some runs here and there have winds slightly east of north below 850, which could help focus the band on Porter. Mind if I start a thread for the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Yeah, that's the other thing. Some runs here and there have winds slightly east of north below 850, which could help focus the band on Porter. Mind if I start a thread for the event? Go ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Is it a safe bet that the AO is going to head more toward neutral by next week Thursday? The outlook has remained locked into place, the downward trend started in fantasy range and has now made it into a realistic timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Beginning to get excited about the LES potential here mon/tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Beginning to get excited about the LES potential here mon/tue. My sled is in the shop for pre-season tune-up... I hope the event busts. /JK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 My sled is in the shop for pre-season tune-up... I hope the event busts. /JK. lol... I just got mine back today after $1100 in season fix ups! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Ill be checking in at my house up in Elk Rapids next weekend for rifle hunting. Hope there is some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Thunder Road - maybe this one could serve as a guide...it's from mid November 2008. 850 mb temps are similar and the synoptic pattern is not all that different from what's coming up. Don't know what lake temps were like but probably somewhere in the ballpark of what we have now. Wish there were some amounts near the shore but the amounts a few miles inland are very similar to the amounts farther inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Gotta like the looks of that southern low hooking around as the cold air sets up to invades our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 SAI index points to AO moderate to strong positive for 2013-2014..... I have reverse engineered the SAI value based on some publicly available data to an accuracy of R=0.88. I will not explain due to respect for Cohen's research. I wanted to believe that the SAI, starting out with anomalously large SCE in Eurasia, would indicate solid negative AO for this winter. However, the anomalies continued to fall back relative to averages throughout the month, which indicated a positive value for the SAI for 2013. I was hoping that there was an "area under the curve effect" that could save the SAI/AO for this year, in other words that the overall net Eurasian snowcover weekly anomalies would average out so that the SAI value would be negative... There is a met student from Penn State tracking daily SCE and he came up with the closest fit slope to 2007... I also have come up with the same closest fit SAI value, 2007...I would expect mean JFM AO to come in around 1.0 to 1.5 based on SAI... I was a bit depressed until I took a look at the MRCC website and realized what a great winter 2007-2008 was for the MW! (I am not much of a historian with this stuff) Most areas in the forum had anywhere from 125% to 350% of normal snowfall in 07/08 MDY: #1 Best ever 89" ORD: Best since 78 (60") GRR: # 4 or 5 best DTW: #4 2007 vs. 2013 ENSO: LaNina vs. Neutral PDO: Negative/Negative PNA: Negative/Trending Negative AO: 1.0/ predicted 1.0/1.5 I read a paper that said in western Lakes at least that a -PDO and -PNA have the strongest correlations for snowfall (-0.6 to -0.8+) with ENSO/NAO a distant 3rd/4th factors. That would bode well for this year..see below: 2008 MRCC Summary: Record-setting Snow Snowfall was much above normal across a significant portion of the Midwest north of the Ohio River. Snowfall was four to six times normal from eastern Iowa to eastern Wisconsin (Figure 4). Seasonal snowfall totals at many locations from northern Illinois through southern Wisconsin are already more than twice normal and in the top ten snowiest. At the end of February Madison, WI had accumulated 89.8 inches of snow, smashing the previous seasonal snowfall record of 76.1 inches of snow in the winter of 1977-1978. Rockford, IL had accumulated 66.1 inches of snow by the end of February, making this the second snowiest season so far. The 65.1 inches of snow Rockford received December 1-February 29 was a new record for the winter (December, January, February), eclipsing the old record of 63.4 inches set in 1978-1979. So far this is the 18th snowiest season in Chicago, with 50.9 inches of snow measured at Chicago O'Hare. At the end of February 4 or more inches of snow blanketed the northern two-thirds of the region (Figure 5). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Don S is going with a warm December. He has a great writeup in the WFD forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 SAI index points to AO moderate to strong positive for 2013-2014..... I have reverse engineered the SAI value based on some publicly available data to an accuracy of R=0.88. I will not explain due to respect for Cohen's research. I wanted to believe that the SAI, starting out with anomalously large SCE in Eurasia, would indicate solid negative AO for this winter. However, the anomalies continued to fall back relative to averages throughout the month, which indicated a positive value for the SAI for 2013. I was hoping that there was an "area under the curve effect" that could save the SAI/AO for this year, in other words that the overall net Eurasian snowcover weekly anomalies would average out so that the SAI value would be negative... There is a met student from Penn State tracking daily SCE and he came up with the closest fit slope to 2007... I also have come up with the same closest fit SAI value, 2007...I would expect mean JFM AO to come in around 1.0 to 1.5 based on SAI... I was a bit depressed until I took a look at the MRCC website and realized what a great winter 2007-2008 was for the MW! (I am not much of a historian with this stuff) Most areas in the forum had anywhere from 125% to 350% of normal snowfall in 07/08 MDY: #1 Best ever 89"SNOWFALL.FEB.2008.gif ORD: Best since 78 (60") GRR: # 4 or 5 best DTW: #4 2007 vs. 2013 ENSO: LaNina vs. Neutral PDO: Negative/Negative PNA: Negative/Trending Negative AO: 1.0/ predicted 1.0/1.5 I read a paper that said in western Lakes at least that a -PDO and -PNA have the strongest correlations for snowfall (-0.6 to -0.8+) with ENSO/NAO a distant 3rd/4th factors. That would bode well for this year..see below: 2008 MRCC Summary: Record-setting Snow Snowfall was much above normal across a significant portion of the Midwest north of the Ohio River. Snowfall was four to six times normal from eastern Iowa to eastern Wisconsin (Figure 4). Seasonal snowfall totals at many locations from northern Illinois through southern Wisconsin are already more than twice normal and in the top ten snowiest. At the end of February Madison, WI had accumulated 89.8 inches of snow, smashing the previous seasonal snowfall record of 76.1 inches of snow in the winter of 1977-1978. Rockford, IL had accumulated 66.1 inches of snow by the end of February, making this the second snowiest season so far. The 65.1 inches of snow Rockford received December 1-February 29 was a new record for the winter (December, January, February), eclipsing the old record of 63.4 inches set in 1978-1979. So far this is the 18th snowiest season in Chicago, with 50.9 inches of snow measured at Chicago O'Hare. At the end of February 4 or more inches of snow blanketed the northern two-thirds of the region (Figure 5). I'm confused. You mention the winter of 07-08 but your graphic is for February 2007. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 looks like some decent storm potential as we approach mid-month, probably still too early/warm for most of the sub forum looking for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 CFSv2 is showing the AO and NAO trending a bit negative/somewhat neutral after next weekend. Yeah SP - attach the correct map. February 2007 was pretty good too. Little cold for my liking though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 So after seeing a crazy near unanimous forecast of a cold, cold winter earlier this Fall, I have now seen some mild forecasts coming out. And thats fine, it gives a bit of a mix (near complete agreement can be scary). I never like reading an outlook for mild, but I take all outlooks (good and bad) with a grain of salt. I must say, however, that 2007-08 coming up so frequently does more than pique my interest! One very important thing to note to those who live north of I80. There are a lot of us here I know. Those people like me who like winter for all it has to offer are the ones who require a mix of things (cold, snowcover, snow, storms, etc) to make the "perfect winter". However, for those who simply want a huge snowstorm (and I know there are many here), it really doesn't matter what the winters overall pattern is, wet, dry, cold, mild....the chance is always there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 So after seeing a crazy near unanimous forecast of a cold, cold winter earlier this Fall, I have now seen some mild forecasts coming out. And thats fine, it gives a bit of a mix (near complete agreement can be scary). I never like reading an outlook for mild, but I take all outlooks (good and bad) with a grain of salt. I must say, however, that 2007-08 coming up so frequently does more than pique my interest! One very important thing to note to those who live north of I80. There are a lot of us here I know. Those people like me who like winter for all it has to offer are the ones who require a mix of things (cold, snowcover, snow, storms, etc) to make the "perfect winter". However, for those who simply want a huge snowstorm (and I know there are many here), it really doesn't matter what the winters overall pattern is, wet, dry, cold, mild....the chance is always there. My preference is for prolonged periods of winter weather, not one big storm and then winter is done for awhile. My only wish for this winter is to have December more exciting than the last two. Will be interesting to see if parts of the sub forum can pull off another snowy February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Major bomb on the 12z Euro from around 168 hrs out to the end of the run. The baroclinic zone is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Major bomb on the 12z Euro from around 168 hrs out to the end of the run. The baroclinic zone is ridiculous. Very cold air pouring in behind it as well. In the day 9-10 range it shows highs struggling to reach 20 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Major bomb on the 12z Euro from around 168 hrs out to the end of the run. The baroclinic zone is ridiculous. Very nice. That's what I've been hoping for this November. Hoping this one survives inside of 150ish hrs this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 The EURO maps you speak of... Looks like November will stay active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I'm liking our subforum's chances for exciting November weather after quite a few duds. It's getting to the time of year that if the ECMWF is showing something, sit up and take notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 You are right..my mistake...the text is correct..will post the Feb 2008 map when I get on a regular computer.. Looks even better than 07 lol SAI index points to AO moderate to strong positive for 2013-2014..... I have reverse engineered the SAI value based on some publicly available data to an accuracy of R=0.88. I will not explain due to respect for Cohen's research. I wanted to believe that the SAI, starting out with anomalously large SCE in Eurasia, would indicate solid negative AO for this winter. However, the anomalies continued to fall back relative to averages throughout the month, which indicated a positive value for the SAI for 2013. I was hoping that there was an "area under the curve effect" that could save the SAI/AO for this year, in other words that the overall net Eurasian snowcover weekly anomalies would average out so that the SAI value would be negative... There is a met student from Penn State tracking daily SCE and he came up with the closest fit slope to 2007... I also have come up with the same closest fit SAI value, 2007...I would expect mean JFM AO to come in around 1.0 to 1.5 based on SAI... I was a bit depressed until I took a look at the MRCC website and realized what a great winter 2007-2008 was for the MW! (I am not much of a historian with this stuff) Most areas in the forum had anywhere from 125% to 350% of normal snowfall in 07/08 MDY: #1 Best ever 89"SNOWFALL.FEB.2008.gif ORD: Best since 78 (60") GRR: # 4 or 5 best DTW: #4 2007 vs. 2013 ENSO: LaNina vs. Neutral PDO: Negative/Negative PNA: Negative/Trending Negative AO: 1.0/ predicted 1.0/1.5 I read a paper that said in western Lakes at least that a -PDO and -PNA have the strongest correlations for snowfall (-0.6 to -0.8+) with ENSO/NAO a distant 3rd/4th factors. That would bode well for this year..see below: 2008 MRCC Summary: Record-setting Snow Snowfall was much above normal across a significant portion of the Midwest north of the Ohio River. Snowfall was four to six times normal from eastern Iowa to eastern Wisconsin (Figure 4). Seasonal snowfall totals at many locations from northern Illinois through southern Wisconsin are already more than twice normal and in the top ten snowiest. At the end of February Madison, WI had accumulated 89.8 inches of snow, smashing the previous seasonal snowfall record of 76.1 inches of snow in the winter of 1977-1978. Rockford, IL had accumulated 66.1 inches of snow by the end of February, making this the second snowiest season so far. The 65.1 inches of snow Rockford received December 1-February 29 was a new record for the winter (December, January, February), eclipsing the old record of 63.4 inches set in 1978-1979. So far this is the 18th snowiest season in Chicago, with 50.9 inches of snow measured at Chicago O'Hare. At the end of February 4 or more inches of snow blanketed the northern two-thirds of the region (Figure 5). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I don't think winter forecasts are anymore than 50-55% more accurate than a coin flip. Never forget the fail-boat of 2011-2012 winter forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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