Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion

[WestCoaster]

12Z GEM gives YYZ its first taste of snowflakes on Saturday morning, and a dusting of snow Tuesday night

 

GFS and EURO seem to agree. Could be fun!

 

Lows below 20F forecasted for the middle of next week, Brrrr

[Geos]

Right now this airmass looks colder than the one in November 1997, which may mean a better chance of snow right to the shore.

12z GFS has at least 18-24 hours of favorable conditions for lake effect. It's obviously way too early to get into details but if this holds then there's a very good chance that someone at the southern or western side of the lake will be shoveling next week.

 

There was mention in Izzi's disco of Δ T's exceeding 20°C. That's really unstable and would suggest a solid plume of LES.

[A-L-E-K]

always worth a repost

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/lot/severe/SouthernLakeMichiganLES.pdf

 

early guess is 850s modify but 15-17 looks possible. Would be surprised if it gets cold enough at the surface for accumulating snow all the way to the shore but won't write it off.

[KokomoWX]

True, some crazy fantasy land maps being thrown around over there.

 

I'm going be awfully angry should there be any type of east coast bomb with this storm.  I am very due! 

[Thunder Road]

Someone's gonna get clobbered next week.

 

If the 6z or 12z GFS verifies, it's Valpo:

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.x=599&sounding.y=291&prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=11&model_dd=07&model_init_hh=12&fhour=126&parameter=TMPC&level=850&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y

[A-L-E-K]

Agree, Valpo is always a good guess and I suspect the threat on the west side of the lake will diminish with time.

[A-L-E-K]

wow

[Geos]

Wow, is right!

 

Cold air plunge.

 

[A-L-E-K]

the east coast is on a major roll with these early season bombs...hope it's the real deal

[Jonger]

Looks like the only folks in Michigan to see much snow will be LES belts.

[Geos]

Looking at the NAO - it seems that the trough would not likely dig very far south. Index is supposed to be between 0- +1 still. Thinking the earlier solutions still could be on the table.

 

[Hoosier]

Had to delete the Euro snow map from Weatherbell. Use one of the free sites.

[Hoosier]

always worth a repost

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/lot/severe/SouthernLakeMichiganLES.pdf

early guess is 850s modify but 15-17 looks possible. Would be surprised if it gets cold enough at the surface for accumulating snow all the way to the shore but won't write it off.

If there's a setup that could do it, this might be it. The LOT afd mentioned that current 850 mb temp progs would put this airmass among the coldest 3-5% of early-mid November airmasses since 1979. Being 4-5 days out, that is somewhat far out but not far enough to where I would expect any major modification to 850 mb temps, so I'd say the bigger concern may be getting a favorable wind flow for that side of the lake.

[Chicago Storm]

Had to delete the Euro snow map from Weatherbell. Use one of the free sites.

lol at still having to do this when they're posted everywhere else.

Just crop it for our region.

[A-L-E-K]

If there's a setup that could do it, this might be it. The LOT afd mentioned that current 850 mb temp progs would put this airmass among the coldest 3-5% of early-mid November airmasses since 1979. Being 4-5 days out, that is somewhat far out but not far enough to where I would expect any major modification to 850 mb temps, so I'd say the bigger concern may be getting a favorable wind flow for that side of the lake.

 

 

probably, it's putting the cart before the horse otherwise.

[WestCoaster]

I don't know much of anything about the NAO to be honest. One thing that I do notice on that chart is that, usually when the NAO dips rather negative for about a week, the FOLLOWING week is below normal; and the reverse is true; when the NAO is positive for a week, the following week is above normal.

 

Is this week delay how the NAO works? Or am I just cute?

[Hoosier]

lol at still having to do this when they're posted everywhere else.

Just crop it for our region.

It may be posted elsewhere but it doesn't mean it should be. I'm just following the guidance that's been given to us.

[Snowstorms]

I don't know much of anything about the NAO to be honest. One thing that I do notice on that chart is that, usually when the NAO dips rather negative for about a week, the FOLLOWING week is below normal; and the reverse is true; when the NAO is positive for a week, the following week is above normal.

 

Is this week delay how the NAO works? Or am I just cute?

 

It depends where the block sets up and whats its positioning. For example, 2009-10 was a West Based -NAO where saw an extreme ridge across Western Greenland and Baffin Island, pumping in warm Atlantic Air across much of Canada whereas the Southern states saw below normal temperature anomalies. Though i remind you, it wasn't a cold winter in the US, just areas further south witnessed temperatures below there seasonal averages for an extended period of time, not polar cold like what we saw in 02-03, another year that featured strong blocking. By March the -NAO/AO weakened and the El Nino began kicking in. 

 

Often times a East based -NAO is good for us, which creates ridging on the Eastern Side of Greenland around the Kara Sea which pumps in Cold polar Air straight from Baffin Island further south. And the AO also has different effects in its negative phase depending where the PV (Polar Vortex) sets up. In recent years, we have seen a SSW (Sudden Stratospheric warming) at different points in the Winter solstice however, it has benefited the other side of the globe as the PV set up across Russia where we got torched despite a -AO in place with mild pacific air and a zonal jet stream. 

 

However, the NAO/AO arent the old indices that influence our weather pattern. The EPO in the Pacific has huge effects on our pattern. For example, currently, were seeing an usually strong -EPO, and yet, were witnessing cold anomalies despite a +NAO/AO and -PNA in place. 

[Geos]

I don't know much of anything about the NAO to be honest. One thing that I do notice on that chart is that, usually when the NAO dips rather negative for about a week, the FOLLOWING week is below normal; and the reverse is true; when the NAO is positive for a week, the following week is above normal.

 

Is this week delay how the NAO works? Or am I just cute?

 

Usually there is not much lag between when the NAO moves and it changed the weather in the eastern half of the country. I would expect the cold shot to be focused in the Great Lakes to New England mostly. The central Appalachians should see some decent cold for a few days though.

[cyclone77]

Next week looking less and less impressive to me as time goes on for the MW.  Big cold dump, but nothing noteworthy stormwise around these parts.  Was hoping to see something blow up along the strong baroclinic zone, but that doesn't look like it will happen.  Maybe for the east coast.  This is the time of year when we can see some really big wind storms wrap up in the MW, and was hoping for something like that this year.  Looks like we may sneak into winter without a powerhouse MW storm if trends continue. 

[mimillman]

Next week looking less and less impressive to me as time goes on for the MW.  Big cold dump, but nothing noteworthy stormwise around these parts.  Was hoping to see something blow up along the strong baroclinic zone, but that doesn't look like it will happen.  Maybe for the east coast.  This is the time of year when we can see some really big wind storms wrap up in the MW, and was hoping for something like that this year.  Looks like we may sneak into winter without a powerhouse MW storm if trends continue. 

There's still a favorable lake-effect set up. Plus, there never really was any indication of anything interesting popping up in the MW around the barclonic zone at 500mb. There were a couple of those fluke runs where the surface went bananas but that's about it. 500mb was never too bullish.

I'm just looking forward to the cold and the smell of snow showers in the vicinity. It's November.

[wisconsinwx]

Next week looking less and less impressive to me as time goes on for the MW.  Big cold dump, but nothing noteworthy stormwise around these parts.  Was hoping to see something blow up along the strong baroclinic zone, but that doesn't look like it will happen.  Maybe for the east coast.  This is the time of year when we can see some really big wind storms wrap up in the MW, and was hoping for something like that this year.  Looks like we may sneak into winter without a powerhouse MW storm if trends continue. 

 

Yep, this is starting to happen every year (moreso other cities that average much less snow getting a significant snow before we even see one snowfall).  In the past I remember cities like Amarillo, Memphis, Charleston, WV, etc. receiving a major early season storm when we hadn't even seen a legit cold dump yet with highs near freezing or snow.  Of course, the wait pays off in the end, but the wait until winter seems long.

[Thunder Road]

0z Euro is like 30 hours of Lake Effect fetch for NW IN.  (The model actually produces precip for only 9-12 of those hours, but still.)

[Justin]

I have some serious concerns that some of these calls for a cold, snowy Winter in the Midwest/Ohio Valley/Southern Plains are going to bust and bust badly.  That ONI index, which seems dead on for the last decade of so of predicting the Winter pattern, would seem to suggest a lot of mild weather for the Central and Western US with some cold around the Great Lakes and East...but sounds like a very progressive pattern with whatever cold that does hit moving out quickly. 

 

I just find that ONI stuff to be interesting...these are things that I didn't learn in my meteorology program as a lot of it is new within the last 10-15 years and only now being understood, but boy oh boy if this ONI thing pans out a lot of Winter lovers in these parts are gonna be upset. 

 

I'm hedging my bets right now towards a fairly average Winter in terms of precipitation and temperatures.  The pattern has certainly turned more active in these parts, and its been on the chilly side so far but it often seems like chilly starts end up transitioning more times than not to milder weather as we go deeper into the cold season....just an observation if you will.

 

The NAO/AO, PDO, ENSO, and other indices we are gonna need to play ball and have a great Winter.  And I noticed that sunspot activity in October shot up a bit much like it did before the Winter of 2011-2012....pretty boring Winter in this area....biggest snow was 4" I believe and snow didn't stay on the ground from any one event longer than two days I believe. 

[harrisale]

Upcoming cold plunge next week lasts 36-48hrs at best, then we warm back up again toward the end of model range.

[DAFF]

Upcoming cold plunge next week lasts 36-48hrs at best, then we warm back up again toward the end of model range.

 

But remember its still November.... This pattern is what we have been stuck in all fall. The good news to me is with every cold shot the warmth will retreat south a bit more and the cold settles in.  Here in SW Ontario we have yet to have a puddle freeze in the ground.  So the cold snap is a step in the right direction for more predominate wintery weather.

[harrisale]

But remember its still November.... This pattern is what we have been stuck in all fall. The good news to me is with every cold shot the warmth will retreat south a bit more and the cold settles in.  Here in SW Ontario we have yet to have a puddle freeze in the ground.  So the cold snap is a step in the right direction for more predominate wintery weather.

 

Agreed, I suppose I was simply pointing out that this instance could be in-step with the upcoming winter pattern that some of the mets have been discussing where our cold shots retreat rather quickly.

[IWXwx]

Agreed, I suppose I was simply pointing out that this instance could be in-step with the upcoming winter pattern that some of the mets have been discussing where our cold shots retreat rather quickly.

 

Wouldn't transient cold (progressive pattern) be a good for snow lovers? For sure, we might get some cold rain/ice events mixed in, but I'd rather see lots of moisture transported in the the region than to have a dome of cold, dry, arctic air parked overhead. I get tired of hoping for a clipper to overperform.

 

EDIT: lol After posting this, I read the discussion concerning this in the other winter thread.

[Stebo]

Wouldn't transient cold (progressive pattern) be a good for snow lovers? For sure, we might get some cold rain/ice events mixed in, but I'd rather see lots of moisture transported in the the region than to have a dome of cold, dry, arctic air parked overhead. I get tired of hoping for a clipper to overperform.

 

EDIT: lol After posting this, I read the discussion concerning this in the other winter thread.

Yeah I don't foresee a prolonged cold period or warm period this winter.

[Hoosier]

0z Euro is like 30 hours of Lake Effect fetch for NW IN. (The model actually produces precip for only 9-12 of those hours, but still.)

Seems like it's shaping up to be a Lake/Porter centric event though can't dismiss the possibility of effects farther west. Lake temps in the low 50s would normally call for a major reduction in snow amounts near the shore but I don't believe normal rules apply in this case given the magnitude of the incoming cold air. However, 2 things would argue for slightly lower amounts near the shore: 1) strength of low level flow, which looks strong enough to displace greatest accums a little inland and 2) some uncertainty with temps near the shore - temps could hang slightly above freezing for a while which could cut into amounts.

We're not in NAM range yet but the GFS parameters (and probably Euro too) look pretty impressive and I believe this has a chance to be one of the biggest November LES events in many years for the particular area under the gun.