Chicago Storm Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 Except that there is..Hi Res Euro...with an axis tilted more slightly towards straight east west..no arguments on UA..GEM has it too, similar 10+ totals, more N WI to Central MI..wait and see It's still not close to the GHB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Totally different type of storm. Even the monster solutions are bowling balls rather than cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 For me any snow before the new year is a Christmas bonus. All this talk about +SN and cold has me worried about the Lucy effect..... Perhaps this is the thanksgiving Charlie finally gets to kick the football !! One must admit the elements are falling in place for a front sider...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 that would be awesome and rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I keep hearing rumblings about 3"-5" of snow sometime next week... I haven't seen anything on the weather regarding any snow... I have read the last couple of posts here, so I will just wait and see. TBH, I don't expect much of anything, beyond some rain... in fact, for Tues/Wed next week, Caplan and company are showing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I keep hearing rumblings about 3"-5" of snow sometime next week... I haven't seen anything on the weather regarding any snow... I have read the last couple of posts here, so I will just wait and see. TBH, I don't expect much of anything, beyond some rain... in fact, for Tues/Wed next week, Caplan and company are showing rain. Skilling is thinking some snow. I have seen a few decent snowfalls in mid November before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 00z GFS is quicker with the cold. This is just freaking epic. 1045MB HP with that huge ass vort max swinging around into a very heavy large cold air-mass against a very mild air mass. The GFS is depicting powdery post frontal snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 There is no way this will happen. Powder snow in mid-November in STL is a pipe dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Never thought I would see such a favorable setup for lake-effect snow on the west side of the lake in Nov... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Take a look at that high pressure system...1045mb+ in northern Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Never thought I would see such a favorable setup for lake-effect snow on the west side of the lake in Nov... Have we ever had pure lake effect snow in November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 Never thought I would see such a favorable setup for lake-effect snow on the west side of the lake in Nov... 11/14-15/1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013110700&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=159 0z GFS snowfall link above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Looking good. Hope trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 GFS would give my part of the subforum its first sub-freezing high temp of the season as well as the first morning teens. Brrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The 18z GFS ensembles definitely trended more amplified with the shortwave with more of the individual members painting an accumulating snow across some portion of our subforum. Then the 0z GFS happened. Maybe this will need to be looked into if the trends of colder/more amplified continue. Can't help but think this will trend north/weaker with the lack of Atlantic side blocking. The modest ridge over the Rockies/Canadian Plains shown on the GFS that possibly would allow this to possibly happen is also not a certainty. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 11/14-15/1997. Yeah, that event really stuck in my mind. Happened after a clipper passed by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 11/14-15/1997. Thanks, ChicagoWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 DVN has a small writeup of the above mentioned '97 event http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/?n=ev19971115snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 DVN has a small writeup of the above mentioned '97 event http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/?n=ev19971115snow Sweet sat image. Most of Lake County here got hit with the LES band in the morning. Highest total was around a foot, 10" fell here. I remember the temp never dipped below about 31.5° during the entire event. Areas really close to the lake got under 1" generally because of the lake temperatures being in the upper 40s. --- For the air mass next week... GFS has a substantial area of -10°C and below 850mb temps. GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Starting to look like a legit shot at non-trace, mid-November snow next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Going to be fun watching the specifics develop over the next few days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Man, I thought we get ridiculous with our threads every now and then... I went to mid Atlantic and saw the thread they have for this "event", and I consider us lucky. Good job with the policing, makes for a clean informative thread. Regardless of snow or not, certainly looks like our coldest air of the season is a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Man, I thought we get ridiculous with our threads every now and then... I went to mid Atlantic and saw the thread they have for this "event", and I consider us lucky. Good job with the policing, makes for a clean informative thread. Regardless of snow or not, certainly looks like our coldest air of the season is a lock. to be fair, the potential out east is for a much more interesting event but yeah, weenie central. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 to be fair, the potential out east is for a much more interesting event but yeah, weenie central. True, some crazy fantasy land maps being thrown around over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Local news stations mentioning accumulating snow and the "jump to winter" next week. Another great Izzi discussion for next week. AMAZINGLY...THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLES...THE ECMWF...AND EVEN THE GEMARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE UPPER AIREVOLUTION...LENDING SOME DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE TO MAINLY THE MUCHBELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CURRENTFORECAST DROP 850MB TEMPS INTO THE -10C TO -12C RANGE...WHICHLOOKING UPPER AIR CLIMO FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER DATING BACKTO 1979...THIS WOULD BE AMONG THE TOP 3-5% OF COLDEST AIR MASSES TOAFFECT THE AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE OFTEN OVERLY AGGRESSIVEWITH ARCTIC AIR IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD THIS TIME OF YEAR ANDGIVEN THE ANTICIPATED VERY COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AMRELUCTANT TO GO AS COLD AS THESE TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT (HIGHS NEAR ORJUST BELOW FREEZING)...BUT DID LOWER HIGHS BELOW OBJECTIVE GUIDANCEFOR TUES/WED HIGHS. OPTED TO KEEP LOWS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND CLOSERTO GUIDANCE WITH THE ALMOST CERTAIN OVERCAST CONDITIONS IF CURRENTMODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE EVEN THE SLIGHTEST WHIFF OF HOW THINGS PAN OUT.SUCH A MASSIVE DUMP OF COLD AIR WITH A CLOSING OFF UPPER LOW IN THEREGION SHOULD LOCK IN AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK. GIVEN THE COLD TEMPSIN THE CLOUD LAYER IT WOULD BE VERY EASY FOR THE CLOUDS TO LEAK ATLEAST OCNL FLURRIES IN THE CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW. MORE SUBSTANTIALCHANCES FOR SOME MEASURABLE SNOW COULD RESULT FROM ANY SHORTWAVEENERGY TRANSLATING THROUGH THIS AMPLIFYING TROUGH AND ALSO VIA LAKEEFFECT. TRYING TO FORECAST ANY LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES RIPPLING THROUGHTHIS COMPLEX FLOW WOULD BE FUTILE AT THIS POINT...SO NO SENSE INEVEN TALKING ABOUT WHAT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AS IT WILL ALMOSTUNDOUBTEDLY CHANGE MULTIPLE TIMES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.ECMWF/GFS BOTH FORECAST A VERY FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT SET UP WHEREEVER DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN ENDS UP BEING (TOO SOON TOCONFIDENTLY PREDICT WIND FIELDS THIS FAR OUT)...BUT CURRENT FORECASTDELTA-T VALUES NEAR 20C WITH HIGH EL HEIGHTS IN VICINITY OF THEUPPER LOW COULD ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE LAKEEFFECT SOMEWHERE. HAVE KEPT POPS MODEST...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE...ANDHAVE SWITCHED P-TYPE IN THE FORECAST TO ALL SNOW GIVEN THEFORECASTED TEMPS.FOR THOSE OF US NOT READY FOR WINTER...BETTER MAKE PLANS TO ENJOYSATURDAY!IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Geos' fantasy Euro map many verify. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Geos' fantasy Euro map many verify. lol haha, You seeing the 12z EURO already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 After the brief cold plunge next week things start to look bad. Im having trouble seeing how "winter arrives and stays" will happen. Hope the pattern turns the corner around the start of Met winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Sweet sat image. Most of Lake County here got hit with the LES band in the morning. Highest total was around a foot, 10" fell here. I remember the temp never dipped below about 31.5° during the entire event. Areas really close to the lake got under 1" generally because of the lake temperatures being in the upper 40s. Right now this airmass looks colder than the one in November 1997, which may mean a better chance of snow right to the shore. 12z GFS has at least 18-24 hours of favorable conditions for lake effect. It's obviously way too early to get into details but if this holds then there's a very good chance that someone at the southern or western side of the lake will be shoveling next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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