weatherbo Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 It is fine to talk about fantasy land, hell even if there is run to run consistency posting a map in the mid to long range is fine. However making a map for something that is shown on maybe a run or 2 isn't necessary. I mean if we posted hand drawn snow maps of all the fantasy land storms, this thread would fill up fast with things that would never come. It will be a long winter if we post every fantasy storm with some sort of hand drawn map. kinda agree but this is the thread for that, plus Geos' contribution here far outweighs a few fantasy maps. So people can just suck it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 EURO showing some big time cold coming down next week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 EURO showing some big time cold coming down next week: I like the strengthening of the baroclinic zone, with all that energy crashing ashore in the Pacific Northwest, eventually a system will cross the Rockies and hit that baroclinic zone, when that happens it would explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 It is fine to talk about fantasy land, hell even if there is run to run consistency posting a map in the mid to long range is fine. However making a map for something that is shown on maybe a run or 2 isn't necessary. I mean if we posted hand drawn snow maps of all the fantasy land storms, this thread would fill up fast with things that would never come. It will be a long winter if we post every fantasy storm with some sort of hand drawn map. Good point. I know Hoosier has mentioned that. If I draw a map, it will be small (for mid range), otherwise I'll just keep it in text. At WiscWx - yeah would never go there with the DGEX. That would be just as bad as posting a NOGAPS map! lol FYI: The EURO did not lose the snow next week at all! Back to the baroclinic zone discussion. EURO really showing that being significant, compared to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 I don't mind the whole fantasy talk even if it's pointless. There is no harm in just mentioning it but drawing up a snow map may be a bit much. The 0z Euro is beyond impressive around day 8 and the cold air crashes ahead of the system associated with the high and you get an extremely impressive and tight baroclinic zone with tons of WAA and it just snows it's brains out on this run. The 12z GFS has a system around 162hr but it's much different and more stripe of snow of snow along the NW-SE gradient into the midwest as a wave drops out of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 GEM shows 6" of snow for YYZ with high temps struggling to hit 30 around Day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 I didn't put much effort into that, haha. From my point of view, it shows that at least the EURO is trying to sniff something out. If there is a model that were to get it right; even roughly, the EURO would be it. This is the mid to long range thread after all! It is indeed med-long range but at some point the quality of the thread takes a big hit if snow maps based on week+ model runs are posted frequently. I get the excitement since it's early season and most of us haven't really had an accumulating snow yet but this kind of thing will get old pretty fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 I like the strengthening of the baroclinic zone, with all that energy crashing ashore in the Pacific Northwest, eventually a system will cross the Rockies and hit that baroclinic zone, when that happens it would explode. It seems like an oddly cold pulse of cold air (cross-polar pulse of air) seeing as how the AO will be positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 NAO down to 0 today. Let's see if it can stay at about that for awhile. AO still above 2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 The interesting thing about next week is that the mega ridge over the Aleutians discussed on the main forum wouldn't argue for cold in the subforum, with a corresponding downstream trough along the PNW coast and a strong jet. This general scenario contributed to the extremely warm start to last December. The 12z ECMWF has a 595 (!) DM ridge south of the Aleutians next Tuesday night, but it's again interesting that both the operational ECMWF and GFS have a very cold air mass over the region and possible snow. What it appears the operational models are hinting at is that the wavelengths will be short enough to support a high amplitude PNA ridge over the interior west and a cold air dump into the eastern half/1/3 of the CONUS. However, the GFS ensemble has much more of a zonal flow (and a 592 ridge south of the Aleutians) and none of the forecast teleconnection indicies seem supportive of such a cold air mass. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png With the CPC teleconnection forecasts being similar to ESRL, my guess is that the magnitude of the cold shot will be a bit more muted than what the operational models are currently showing and unlikely to have much staying power because of the unfavorable Pacific, Arctic and North Atlantic patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Does anyone have access to the RaleighWx teleconnection forecasts from the ensembles? The EPO is forecast to be negative by ESRL, but the big ridge near the Aleutians at that time argues for a trough in the Gulf of Alaska/PNW coast and a +EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 NAO down to 0 today. Let's see if it can stay at about that for awhile. AO still above 2.0 The GFS has shown the AO heading south over the next 10 days also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Does anyone have access to the RaleighWx teleconnection forecasts from the ensembles? The EPO is forecast to be negative by ESRL, but the big ridge near the Aleutians at that time argues for a trough in the Gulf of Alaska/PNW coast and a +EPO. The trough off the west coast pulls back to the west which creates the ridge to form over the rockies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Skilling posted the departures for 11/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 There are some robust clippers on the 18z GFS Ensembles, and the timing has sped up in many cases, to Monday night perhaps. If the trend continues, we're only about 5 days away from said time period. Many Novembers this wouldn't be a big deal, but we've had basically zilch the last two Novembers, and very little in the last 20 years, so hard not to be a bit excited about any legit snow so early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Between last night's Euro, this morning's GFS, and even the new Euro it's starting to look like there's decent potential for a nice snow system next week. Starting to look a little less likely we'll see a blockbuster storm system wrap up later next week, but the tradeoff could be a nice little system for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 If trends continue through Saturday, then I think we can start taking this system seriously. As in a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 If trends continue through Saturday, then I think we can start taking this system seriously. As in a thread. Yeah, I wouldn't start a thread before then, by then we'd be talking around 120 hours out, which if the potential were to continue to be shown, that would be worthy of a thread starter. Maybe have someone with some luck for the region start it then, if we are still discussing things looking wintry by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 wonder why my "great post" comment was deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 6, 2013 Author Share Posted November 6, 2013 wonder why my "great post" comment was deleted. we both know the answer to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 wonder why my "great post" comment was deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Yeah, I wouldn't start a thread before then, by then we'd be talking around 120 hours out, which if the potential were to continue to be shown, that would be worthy of a thread starter. Maybe have someone with some luck for the region start it then, if we are still discussing things looking wintry by then. Honestly, the timing seems to be anywhere around Monday night into Tuesday night for the clipper around here, so I'd even say late Friday. There may well be an additional storm later next week, but that is much more up in the air, and will more likely have less cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 wonder why my "great post" comment was deleted. "Great post" on a medium/long range thread is an oxymoron, that's probably why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Joe D posted about this same storm. He posted the Euro w a broad 12+ swath on axis eastern IA to ORD to GRR. He compared track to GHD blizzard and posted snowfall map next to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Honestly, the timing seems to be anywhere around Monday night into Tuesday night for the clipper around here, so I'd even say late Friday. There may well be an additional storm later next week, but that is much more up in the air, and will more likely have less cold air to work with. Wait until Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 "Great post" on a medium/long range thread is an oxymoron, that's probably why. naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 Joe D posted about this same storm. He posted the Euro w a broad 12+ swath on axis eastern IA to ORD to GRR. He compared track to GHD blizzard and posted snowfall map next to it. There's nothing on the ECMWF that's even close the the GHD track or UA configuration. Terrible met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 Glad I made your day, I see you're going with a blow torch the rest of the month, with a MBT (mega blow torch) in Alek's backyard. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Except that there is..Hi Res Euro...with an axis tilted more slightly towards straight east west..no arguments on UA..GEM has it too, similar 10+ totals, more N WI to Central MI..wait and see There's nothing on the ECMWF that's even close the the GHD track or UA configuration. Terrible met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I know it won't happen like this. But this is still so pretty to me. Middle of the day upper 30s for me. Low to mid 30s for the region under the snow gun. Overnight lows wold be very low afterwards. GFS already fantasy showing single digits in mid November in favorite cool spots. Then we get back-smacked again by another slug of November cold. Given the last decade this is bonus stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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