snowlover2 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 00z GGEM has a 12z Euro type solution with the big storm followed by the arctic plunge. Weaker than the euro but also west some. Would be a really nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Weaker than the euro but also west some. Would be a really nice hit. Initially but it ends up bombing to 950 mb like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 If these huge blasts of cold air keep coming into the MW this could mean multiple big storms for the east coast in Jan. Tradeoff would be that we would get multiple little clipper systems to keep us occupied. Like I said several days ago hopefully we'll actually get a clipper with some balls at some point to come down the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 If these huge blasts of cold air keep coming into the MW this could mean multiple big storms for the east coast in Jan. Tradeoff would be that we would get multiple little clipper systems to keep us occupied. Like I said several days ago hopefully we'll actually get a clipper with some balls at some point to come down the pike. Haven't seen a decent clipper in a long time as far as I know. Would be nice to get a classic clipper that drops a general 3-5" across the subforum. The upcoming pattern through the first 10 days of January, looks awesome for some decent storm development. The STJ continues its active look with this hybrid La Nada pattern in place, and if the timing is right, we could see a beautiful phase. The PV placement will be key as to where storms track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 00z GGEM is actually a full blown triple phaser with the 5-7 day system Obviously it doesn't FULLY phase and peak until it's just to our NE, but verbatim it would still yield a good 6-8"+ storm for the Southern/Eastern 1/3 of the subforum. The last map BTW is contaminated by another system beyond 216hr that dumps an additional 4-8" across the same areas. (this is just for the ****s and giggles BTW. Very little chance in hell of anything on the GGEM actually happening) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Remember the last time models showed a triple phaser at this range a couple years back, yeah it ended up being a complete bag of nothing, precede with great caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Talking about the early February 2009 disaster that every model showed a 978 bomb over Erie at 144hrs? Yep, we are right in that range too and seeing how every single system this year has completely underperformed, expect this to as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yep, we are right in that range too and seeing how every single system this year has completely underperformed, expect this to as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Remember the last time models showed a triple phaser at this range a couple years back, yeah it ended up being a complete bag of nothing, precede with great caution. Regardless, I find it impressive to see on the models at all within 240hr given how unusual the phenomenon is, especially in our part of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 168 hour Euro map might be very interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hyperbomb on the 00z Euro again...good grief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 If recent trends continue expect numerous models to forecast 2-3ft of snow for YYZ for several runs only to be trimmed back to a 1-3" event in the final 24-36hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 168 hour Euro map might be very interesting... ROFL 953 low in Vermont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hyperbomb on the 00z Euro again...good grief. Goddamn, >60 mb drop in 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 What a bomb WOW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hyperbomb on the 00z Euro again...good grief. Missing basically everyone in the subforum except maybe Eastern Ohio and parts of Ontario, glorious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Goddamn, >60 mb drop in 24 hrs. That thing is just ridiculous but you could kinda see it coming given the 144 hour map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Missing basically everyone in the subforum except maybe Eastern Ohio and parts of Ontario, glorious. oh and enjoy freezing to death. 850 temps are like -20 by Birmingham, Alabama at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Missing basically everyone in the subforum except maybe Eastern Ohio and parts of Ontario, glorious. Who cares about track at this point. The fact that something like that is within striking distance is pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That thing is just ridiculous but you could kinda see it coming given the 144 hour map. Southeast half of Ohio gets 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Missing basically everyone in the subforum except maybe Eastern Ohio and parts of Ontario, glorious. Actually, that's far from correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Actually, that's far from correct. Sorry Southern Indiana gets a bit too, congrats to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Sorry Southern Indiana gets a bit too, congrats to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Local met is saying no significant winter storms until at least January 15. What a terrible call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 What a terrible call. Indeed. Things can change fast especially once you get past a week or ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 lol, can't bash him can ya? Anyway, I'll lead to the promised land in the medium range. Of course the definition of significant is open for interpretation. But, I don't think the pattern is completely void of opportunity. There looks to be a dip in the AO and NAO in and around the early Jan period. That has held a signal for something "significant" in the past...but maybe it means nothing this go around. I'll get beaten up for this, but yesterday's 6-10 day CPC analogs had 01-03-99 as the #3 analog. Obviously not calling for anything like that, but not sure if bone dry and cold is the certain answer either...well, the dry part. We'll see. I'd take a decent clipper at this point. Indeed. Things can change fast especially once you get past a week or ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Snowfall the GFS is showing through the 9th. Looks like glacier building time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 This morning's day 8+ 0z super GFS ensembles #1 analog date (Jan 12, 1965) is an interesting one for Indianapolis. January 14: 22/8...0.2" snow January 15: 26/13...10.3" snow January 16: 13/2...1.0" snow January 17: 22/-10 January 18: 22/0 January 19: 34/0 List here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_sup610.gif Alas, there are several non-things/events in a lot of those analog dates...but a few moderate type hits as well. Fun to look at though...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 This morning's day 8+ 0z super GFS ensembles #1 analog date (Jan 12, 1965) is an interesting one for Indianapolis. January 14: 22/8...0.2" snow January 15: 26/13...10.3" snow January 16: 13/2...1.0" snow January 17: 22/-10 January 18: 22/0 January 19: 34/0 List here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_sup610.gif Alas, there are several non-things/events in a lot of those analog dates...but a few moderate type hits as well. Fun to look at though...we'll see. Starting to see signs on the op runs and even some ensemble support for a sig cold shot about a week and a half from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Starting to see signs on the op runs and even some ensemble support for a sig cold shot about a week and a half from now. Agree. The 12z op Euro is worth a loop from start to finish. Volatile. And completely fantasy land...but katy bar the door at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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