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Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm

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If these huge blasts of cold air keep coming into the MW this could mean multiple big storms for the east coast in Jan.  Tradeoff would be that we would get multiple little clipper systems to keep us occupied.  Like I said several days ago hopefully we'll actually get a clipper with some balls at some point to come down the pike.

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If these huge blasts of cold air keep coming into the MW this could mean multiple big storms for the east coast in Jan.  Tradeoff would be that we would get multiple little clipper systems to keep us occupied.  Like I said several days ago hopefully we'll actually get a clipper with some balls at some point to come down the pike.

 

Haven't seen a decent clipper in a long time as far as I know. Would be nice to get a classic clipper that drops a general 3-5" across the subforum. 

 

The upcoming pattern through the first 10 days of January, looks awesome for some decent storm development. The STJ continues its active look with this hybrid La Nada pattern in place, and if the timing is right, we could see a beautiful phase. The PV placement will be key as to where storms track. 

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00z GGEM is actually a full blown triple phaser with the 5-7 day system

 

Obviously it doesn't FULLY phase and peak until it's just to our NE, but verbatim it would still yield a good 6-8"+ storm for the Southern/Eastern 1/3 of the subforum.

 

The last map BTW is contaminated by another system beyond 216hr that dumps an additional 4-8" across the same areas.

 

(this is just for the ****s and giggles BTW. Very little chance in hell of anything on the GGEM actually happening)

 

f144.gif

 

f156.gif

 

 

f168.gif

 

 

f180.gif

 

PR_120-240_0000.gif

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Remember the last time models showed a triple phaser at this range a couple years back, yeah it ended up being a complete bag of nothing, precede with great caution.

 

Regardless, I find it impressive to see on the models at all within 240hr given how unusual the phenomenon is, especially in our part of the world.

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lol, can't bash him can ya? Anyway, I'll lead to the promised land in the medium range. ;)

 

 

:weenie:

 

Of course the definition of significant is open for interpretation. But, I don't think the pattern is completely void of opportunity. There looks to be a dip in the AO and NAO in and around the early Jan period. That has held a signal for something "significant" in the past...but maybe it means nothing this go around. I'll get beaten up for this, but yesterday's 6-10 day CPC analogs had 01-03-99 as the #3 analog. Obviously not calling for anything like that, but not sure if bone dry and cold is the certain answer either...well, the dry part. We'll see. I'd take a decent clipper at this point. 

 

 

Indeed.  Things can change fast especially once you get past a week or ten days.

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This morning's day 8+ 0z super GFS ensembles #1 analog date (Jan 12, 1965) is an interesting one for Indianapolis.

 

January 14: 22/8...0.2" snow

January 15: 26/13...10.3" snow

January 16: 13/2...1.0" snow

January 17: 22/-10

January 18: 22/0

January 19: 34/0

 

List here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_sup610.gif

 

Alas, there are several non-things/events in a lot of those analog dates...but a few moderate type hits as well. Fun to look at though...we'll see. 

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This morning's day 8+ 0z super GFS ensembles #1 analog date (Jan 12, 1965) is an interesting one for Indianapolis.

 

January 14: 22/8...0.2" snow

January 15: 26/13...10.3" snow

January 16: 13/2...1.0" snow

January 17: 22/-10

January 18: 22/0

January 19: 34/0

 

List here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_sup610.gif

 

Alas, there are several non-things/events in a lot of those analog dates...but a few moderate type hits as well. Fun to look at though...we'll see. 

 

 

Starting to see signs on the op runs and even some ensemble support for a sig cold shot about a week and a half from now. 

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Starting to see signs on the op runs and even some ensemble support for a sig cold shot about a week and a half from now. 

 

Agree. The 12z op Euro is worth a loop from start to finish. Volatile.

 

And completely fantasy land...but katy bar the door at the end of the run.

 

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