Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Just skimmed through the latest GFS run people have been referring to. Wow. Absolute weather porn for weenie's/ winter enthusiasts in cities like Detroit and Toronto. Huge storm followed by a bitter arctic blast. Can't ask for more. Reminds me of January 16, 1994, when I was in Grade 8. Big snowstorm hit the night of the 16th/17th (morning of the LA earthquake) dropping 9" and was followed by one of the most bitter arctic blasts I can remember in Toronto. Downtown Toronto broke a record dating from the 19th century on January 19th that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Crazy run, SnowFreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm sure if this verifies, the old timers will be saying things like "this is just like it was when I was a kid" or "this is how it always used to be". I remember being at a family party in 2011, and some were talking about all the snow we had and my moms one cousin said "yeah theres been a lot of snow...this reminds me of the winters when we were kids"! Now, all I could so is laugh inside because I knew that she was a "kid" in the late 1950s to mid 1960s, a period of anemic winters here. Not wanted to sound like an idiot, I didnt say anything, but I knew that the snow at that time was deeper than it had been at any point from 1952 to 1973. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Crazy run, SnowFreak. 0zGFS_123013.jpg Yup. Wont verify, but it does tell me winter is roaring back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I know I am late to the 12z Euro party but man that was an incredible run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I remember being at a family party in 2011, and some were talking about all the snow we had and my moms one cousin said "yeah theres been a lot of snow...this reminds me of the winters when we were kids"! Now, all I could so is laugh inside because I knew that she was a "kid" in the late 1950s to mid 1960s, a period of anemic winters here. Not wanted to sound like an idiot, I didnt say anything, but I knew that the snow at that time was deeper than it had been at any point from 1952 to 1973. Last December, when we had no snow on the ground early in the month, I overheard two neighbours talking as I walked up the street and one was saying that when she was young, the snow was always piled up to the roof. In Ottawa, a co-worker of mine said that when she was young, she could toboggan off her roof due to the snow being so deep. She was likely remembering 1970-71 and thinking all her childhood winters were like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Crazy run, SnowFreak. 0zGFS_123013.jpg that plus brutal cold YES PLEASE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I screenshot the January map from JB yesterday than was dismissed as fodder. Let's see how this verifies now that people seem to be on board with the cold. This would be probably the coldest Jan since 1982 here. most of the top 25 coldest January's on record here are 1800s to early 1900s. With a notable exception of 1977, 1978, and 1979. We get cold ones like 1994, 1997, 2010, 2011 but those are -4F or so. I think if we end up with that super cold coming down. Some snow covered regions over the upper Midwest/lakes could be as close to 1970s as it can get around here now. He is referencing Fahrenheit not Celsius right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 06z GFS says what cooldown until after day 10? That whole run was bizarre though, very flat until day 11 which wouldn't make sense in a amplified pattern that we are going into. It was even too flat with this system 3 days from now. GFS has been doing this in the mid and long range though, one run amplified, one run flat as a pancake and overly progressive, I would certainly be cautious using the GFS beyond 120 hours right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This would be probably the coldest Jan since 1982 here. most of the top 25 coldest January's on record here are 1800s to early 1900s. With a notable exception of 1977, 1978, and 1979. We get cold ones like 1994, 1997, 2010, 2011 but those are -4F or so. I think if we end up with that super cold coming down. Some snow covered regions over the upper Midwest/lakes could be as close to 1970s as it can get around here now. He is referencing Fahrenheit not Celsius right? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 12z Euro has a 980mb or maybe sub 980 around Washington DC at hour 168 still followed by major cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 A GGEM style 950mb low NE of Toronto on the 12z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 A GGEM style 950mb low NE of Toronto on the 12z ECMWF. 950? For real? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 950? For real? lol Yea. It goes from 980 to 962mb in 6hrs, then to 950mb the following 6hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 oh man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yea. It goes from 980 to 962mb in 6hrs, then to 950mb the following 6hrs. Very nice. Toronto Superbomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 just saw the e wall maps...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 for our back yard, yeah totally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Very nice. Toronto Superbomb. I have never really seen the ECMWF go this crazy. It would be insane to have something below 975 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 So a more inland Blizzard of 1996/1950/1978 followed by January 1994 cold. Ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Looks great from Pennsylvania up into eastern Canada. Another potential board crasher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I have never really seen the ECMWF go this crazy. It would be insane to have something below 975 CAN_PRMSL_msl_192.gif It reminds me of this gem. I have to pull this out every time I see an unrealistic model projection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It reminds me of this gem. I have to pull this out every time I see an unrealistic model projection. Euro Bomb.gif That one was just some kind of plotting error IIRC...didn't look like that on other sites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 That one was just some kind of plotting error IIRC...didn't look like that on other sites Yeah, I know that. I just find a 950mb low almost as hard to swallow. If it would come even close to verifying, it would be one of the most historic meteorological events in any of our lifetimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It reminds me of this gem. I have to pull this out every time I see an unrealistic model projection. Euro Bomb.gif Until I saw the date stamp I was thinking....Octobomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I have never really seen the ECMWF go this crazy. It would be insane to have something below 975 CAN_PRMSL_msl_192.gif It reminds me of this gem. I have to pull this out every time I see an unrealistic model projection. day after tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 day after tomorrow? Lol, that's what came to my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It reminds me of this gem. I have to pull this out every time I see an unrealistic model projection. was that some kind of miscalculation by Plymouth State plotting engine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 was that some kind of miscalculation by Plymouth State plotting engine? Yeah, I think so. I wish I could have seen the look on my face when I pulled that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 00z GGEM has a 12z Euro type solution with the big storm followed by the arctic plunge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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