Chicago Storm Posted October 26, 2013 Author Share Posted October 26, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41482-francisco-lekima-nao-and-forecast-uncertainty-next-week/ Obviously. If the consistent activity continues it could be a problem. My point was that no two runs are even close. One run will show a track through the OH, and the next through MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 Also the timing initially was way off, the Euro barely gets the trough axis through the Plains at 144 now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 looks like a prolonged mild zonal pattern into the medium range. zzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 looks like a prolonged mild zonal pattern into the medium range. zzzzz Yeah, the Halloween storm looks alright, but I'm not overly stoked about it for this part of the MW. Plains may see some severe with it earlier in the week, but it looks like we'll be seeing just a vanilla rain event in these parts. Was really hoping the trough would spit out a witch, but looks like that's not in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 The ECMWF and GEM look pretty ominous severe potential wise for the OH Valley on Thurs possibly even into nrn IN and OH per the GEM. Very impressive wind fields/shear and 60+ dewpoints up to near IND on the Euro and nrn IN and OH on the Canadian. Looks more like a rain concern for the western part of the subforum though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 GFS is pretty wet in the next 120 hours! Wonder if this is a sign of things to come this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 GFS is pretty wet in the next 120 hours! Rivers are actually running pretty high around here after all the precip in the last two weeks or so, will be interesting to watch the rainfall with this system. Looks like ON is in for a good soaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 looks like another soaker showing up in the med-range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 South Bend WNDU TV met Mike Hoffman just issued his winter forecast....80 inches of snow, a foot above normal, and one to one and a half degrees colder for the Michiana area at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 here's his reasoning too: Here's my preliminary Winter Outlook for 2013/2014. You can see that I am going for about 80" of snow and temperatures about 1.5 degrees colder than normal. However, I am being conservative since it's still October. I can see it being snowier and colder than this, but I want to watch some of the indicators during November first. I will issue my final winter outlook for this coming season just before Thanksgiving. There were three main factors I put into my calculation. First was the El Nino/La Nina situation along the equator in the central Pacific. Right now, it is neutral, meaning no El Nino and no La Nina, so I suppose you could call it La Nada. I also used the water temperature pattern in the north Pacific, which is called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We are now in the "cold" phase of this pattern, which lasts for 20 to 30 years. The last cold phase ended in the late 1970s and the new one began in about 2003. So I limited my previous similar years to those. Once I had years with similar water temperatures in the central and north Pacific, I then narrowed it down by taking only the years following a cool summer...similar to what we had this past summer. This left me with 3 previous years: 1966/67, 1978/79 and 2003/04. Two of these are right on the edge of the cold phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, but I included them since they were similar. These three years were all colder than normal, by over 2 degrees on average. Two of them featured over 100" of snow, which we've only done 7 times in our history. The other was on the opposite end of the spectrum...only 44". That doesn't give me a ton of confidence on things. The average of the three was about 85" of snow. So my numbers are conservative for now. However, the water temperature in the north Atlantic is set up for cold weather so I'll be. I'm not taking that into account yet, though, because it can change over a couple of weeks. I'll watch all of this through November and give my final update for winter just before Thanksgiving... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 South Bend WNDU TV met Mike Hoffman just issued his winter forecast....80 inches of snow, a foot above normal, and one to one and a half degrees colder for the Michiana area at least. Too bad SBN doesn't have someone to do official snow measurements this year, at least not as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 The active pattern looks to continue with the system mid week next week and another one for mid month, both strong full latitudinal troughs as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 The active pattern looks to continue with the system mid week next week and another one for mid month, both strong full latitudinal troughs as well. System coming up this weak looks similar in track to the last, will be far less entertaining though. Rainfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 System coming up this weak looks similar in track to the last, will be far less entertaining though. Rainfall: Definitely looks like the wet pattern continues from the central Plains into Quebec. Promising, since eventually the cold air will catch up with these systems later in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Man the 12z Euro puts the Aleutian/Bering Sea ridge of steroids towards the end of its run with an absolute flood of jet stream energy crashing into the West Coast from the Gulf of Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSNW3 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Too bad SBN doesn't have someone to do official snow measurements this year, at least not as of now. Isn't the SOUTH BEND MICHIANA RGNL AP (128187) taking official snow measurements? Looks like it from the NOWData - http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=iwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSNW3 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 South Bend WNDU TV met Mike Hoffman just issued his winter forecast....80 inches of snow, a foot above normal, and one to one and a half degrees colder for the Michiana area at least. That's fun stuff. I've got South Bend in my model. I like to see how it stacks up to the pros. Prelim forecast for SBN imaged below. http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1314/1314-SBN.html Last year this model did well for South Bend snow projection. http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1213/maps-sf-ws.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Isn't the SOUTH BEND MICHIANA RGNL AP (128187) taking official snow measurements? Looks like it from the NOWData - http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=iwx They may have someone now, but look back at the NOWdata for 10/23 - 10/26. Snowfall data is M (missing) for all 4 of those days and they measurable snow on at least a couple of those days. EDIT: I also remember a met telling one of the SBN media people as much on NWSchat after that Oct. snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Looking at the GFS large-scale view: A pulse of cross-polar flow will put some -20C temps (surface and 850mb) around northern Ontario on Nov 10-11. woohoo. cross-polar flow. Ottawa should be a bit chilly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Maybe another strong GLC in 8-10 days especially if the 12z Euro is correct. GFS also shows this but farther south and not quite as strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 4, 2013 Author Share Posted November 4, 2013 Maybe another strong GLC in 8-10 days especially if the 12z Euro is correct. GFS also shows this but farther south and not quite as strong. That's not a GLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 That's not a GLC. A clipper then? A DABer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 We have seen a major dip in the GWO recently with relative AAM anomalies dropping off significantly. Negative values have been dominating near 30n and across the southern hemisphere. At the same time we are seeing -AAM values continuing to propagate towards the equator with a classic Rossby Wave Train setup across the pacific basin. Heres my attempt to outline this in true ed berry style. Notice how anticyclonic wave wave breaking is dominating the 250mb level from 30 to 60N with -AAM values crashing into the west coast of north america. This encourages mean troughiness from 60 to 90N with a stronger arctic jet/+AO and +u wind anomalies. According to the GEFS we see this AAM pattern strengthen in the 10-15 day period. Euro ensembles and NAEFS modelling have been much AN east of the rockies in the same time period.... which the GWO is supporting. At the same time the MJO is expected to move into phase 2 which coincides with a moderate -PNA period. A -PNA/phase 2 MJO/ rapidly falling GWO pattern often produces warm anoms east of the rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 absolutely massive area of extreme positive 500 mb height anomalies on both the GFS/Euro over the N. Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Latest blocking map. There's those + heights south of Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 12Z GFS looks very seasonal, I'm thinking this month is going to be very hard to call one way or another. The transient ridge around the 17-19th time-frame looks very certain, the GFS just won't drop that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 This 216 hour ECMWF plot is a keeper, if only for a laugh. Looks like the 500mb map for the 1950 Appalachian storm or potentially the 1913 great storm. The 240 hour shows a bomb surface low around Albany NY at 240 hours. (500mb low is offshore Cape May NJ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 I'm thinking this storm, if it continues to show up, will trend NW. How much is up for debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 228 hr clown maps...at least they're in the right thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 228 hr clown maps...at least they're in the right thread lol. Boring pattern for the next while, need to stoke the fire a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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