Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion

[Geos]

Brutal.

 

[Powerball]

well it is a pretty fun one on the 6z GFS. That would slam Detroit. Anyway, these GFS runs are in fact inconsistent with yesterday's GFS runs.

GFS manages to dig the shortwave further south, allowing it to amplify more with the influence of the STJ.

Unfortunately, I see all sort of shades of 12/26/12 and 12/14/13 with the partial phase/low transfer. While these weren't bad snow events, I'm ready for something different/more exciting.

[IWXwx]

Brutal.

 

 

Interesting that the model picks up the Lake Michigan plume curling clear down to East Central Indiana, with clouds holding temps up.

[michsnowfreak]

Looks like timing of disturbances is all over the place, but there should be SOMETHING from January 1-5th

[TimChgo9]

GFS has had that clipper, in one form or another, since before the last event. Other than slight changes in moisture and track, it's more or less kept the blob of precip over N IL and S WI.  I would imagine it will jiggle some more, but we could have a decent snow for the New Year. 

[snowstormcanuck]

quelle surprise on the GFS vanishing act.

[toronto blizzard]

quelle surprise on the GFS vanishing act.

I wouldn't give up on it yet.

[cyclone77]

Pretty benign pattern the next 10 days or so.  Euro shows a few clippers, but nothing with substantial precip.  Hopefully the clipper around New Year's is decent.  Maybe a clipper type pattern isn't so bad considering anything coming out of the southwest would likely mean rain for a large part of the sub in many cases.

[snowstormcanuck]

I wouldn't give up on it yet.

 

See post 823. I would.

[toronto blizzard]

See post 823. I would.

Well like you said EURO hasn't been that great this winter.

[Geos]

GFS is less excited about the Clippers next week, but the GGEM continues to be.

 

Through 108 120 hours.

 

[cyclone77]

^ lol.  GEM says the Geos snow magnet continues.

[Hoosier]

Local met is saying no significant winter storms until at least January 15. 

[Thundersnow12]

With 13.2" for a season total, I'm fine with a week or two off but still could get a few more nickel and dimers the next two weeks.

[Geos]

^ lol.  GEM says the Geos snow magnet continues.

 

Haha. Clipper gradient pattern.

 

See what the EURO says now...

[Stebo]

I would be a bit cautious of immediately writing off the potential next week. The models are trying to drop in the polar vortex into Ontario and Quebec and lock it in place. the problem with that idea is that the NAO only goes to neutral, so there is really no true block to lock it into place. Several of the GFS ensembles actually drop it more so into the Canadian Maritimes, which would keep the confluence more to the east of this region, and allow clippers to come through without being completely crushed or sheared apart. Now if the NAO were to go more negative than forecast then I would wholeheartedly buy into what the GFS/Euro show, however right now I have my doubts, both models all year have been over aggressive on troughing in the East, this might just be another case of this occurring.

[IWXwx]

I would be a bit cautious of immediately writing off the potential next week. The models are trying to drop in the polar vortex into Ontario and Quebec and lock it in place. the problem with that idea is that the NAO only goes to neutral, so there is really no true block to lock it into place. Several of the GFS ensembles actually drop it more so into the Canadian Maritimes, which would keep the confluence more to the east of this region, and allow clippers to come through without being completely crushed or sheared apart. Now if the NAO were to go more negative than forecast then I would wholeheartedly buy into what the GFS/Euro show, however right now I have my doubts, both models all year have been over aggressive on troughing in the East, this might just be another case of this occurring.

 

You're more confident that me. Models may have been over aggressive on troughing, but they've had the right idea. Trough exerting its influence = below normal temps and weak sauce clippers, which is what the subforum has experienced so far this winter. The only real winners are the lake effect areas until everything freezes up.

 

I hope you are right about the potential next week, but I'm not holding my breath.

[Stebo]

You're more confident that me. Models may have been over aggressive on troughing, but they've had the right idea. Trough exerting its influence = below normal temps and weak sauce clippers, which is what the subforum has experienced so far this winter. The only real winners are the lake effect areas until everything freezes up.

 

I hope you are right about the potential next week, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

Oh I agree that there will be some troughing in the east as soon as Monday, the question is will it be transient and will the polar vortex shift east after Monday, or will it drop in and lock in for the rest of the week, based upon how most of the things this winter have been strong but transient I would tend to lean in that direction. The 06z GFS did come back some with respect to the mid to late week potential system, not nearly the the magnitude of the 12/18z runs from yesterday however. But it also wasn't completely flattened like the 00z GFS had shown.

[weatherbo]

i'm ready for a week of 50's to stall the freeze up.

[Chicago WX]

Local met is saying no significant winter storms until at least January 15. 

 

 

Of course the definition of significant is open for interpretation. But, I don't think the pattern is completely void of opportunity. There looks to be a dip in the AO and NAO in and around the early Jan period. That has held a signal for something "significant" in the past...but maybe it means nothing this go around. I'll get beaten up for this, but yesterday's 6-10 day CPC analogs had 01-03-99 as the #3 analog. Obviously not calling for anything like that, but not sure if bone dry and cold is the certain answer either...well, the dry part. We'll see. I'd take a decent clipper at this point. 

[IWXwx]

 

Of course the definition of significant is open for interpretation. But, I don't think the pattern is completely void of opportunity. There looks to be a dip in the AO and NAO in and around the early Jan period. That has held a signal for something "significant" in the past...but maybe it means nothing this go around. I'll get beaten up for this, but yesterday's 6-10 day CPC analogs had 01-03-99 as the #3 analog. Obviously not calling for anything like that, but not sure if bone dry and cold is the certain answer either...well, the dry part. We'll see. I'd take a decent clipper at this point. 

 

Decent being the operative word here. So far, all we've seen are shearing out moisture-starved teases. Now Geos, on the other hand....

[A-L-E-K]

no reason to punt on the clipper yet...it's still there in semi-respectable form on many ensembles.  Go ahead and broad brush DAB-3" within 100 miles of I80 and take it to the bank.

 

<5% chance of hybrid CO low phasing.

 

This pattern is totally lame.

[buckeye]

I noticed the 00z euro finally shows that 'cluster' of a system on it that GFS keeps showing and then losing....later next week.   It's more east and south then the gfs's depictions but the fact that it finally shows it is 'something'....at least.

[Chicago WX]

Decent being the operative word here. So far, all we've seen are shearing out moisture-starved teases. Now Geos, on the other hand....

 

I wouldn't lose any sleep if the new Madison was smoking cirrus while we enjoyed a 2-3" clipper. But, reality at this point may be just north of here is best with the first couple of clippers. Guidance points that way at this point, but we know how that goes.

[weatherbo]

no reason to punt on the clipper yet...it's still there in semi-respectable form on many ensembles.  Go ahead and broad brush DAB-3" within 100 miles of I80 and take it to the bank.

 

<5% chance of hybrid CO low phasing.

 

This pattern is totally lame.

he hath spoken

[Stebo]

no reason to punt on the clipper yet...it's still there in semi-respectable form on many ensembles. Go ahead and broad brush DAB-3" within 100 miles of I80 and take it to the bank.

<5% chance of hybrid CO low phasing.

This pattern is totally lame.

As long as the PNA remains negative there is a potential of a CO low phasing, the problem is we haven't had much phasing this year, the two streams have remained split. The closest we got was last weekend. Lately though everything has been northern stream dominant, when that other shoe drops though you will get something to phase, case in point GFS 06z run around 240hr. Yes I don't believe it will remain even on the next run, but that shows you the potential the pattern does have.

[DAFF]

The pattern this winter has been interesting. Not much in the big storm accumulating snows but the frequency of snow has been very generous to say the least, for SW Ontario SE Michigan anyhow. Sooner or later in one of the cold thaw cycles something is going to shift and produce the phasing to produce the big storm which everyone has been watching for. My hunch it wont appear on the models until 140hrs or so.

[Geos]

The pattern has been interesting for those on the cold, wet side. Definitely a better pattern this December vs. the last two. Will see what January and February can dish out. At least so far this winter the heavier snow events have been spread out a little more, instead of being concentrated in one particular area/corridor. 

[Hoosier]

 

Of course the definition of significant is open for interpretation. But, I don't think the pattern is completely void of opportunity. There looks to be a dip in the AO and NAO in and around the early Jan period. That has held a signal for something "significant" in the past...but maybe it means nothing this go around. I'll get beaten up for this, but yesterday's 6-10 day CPC analogs had 01-03-99 as the #3 analog. Obviously not calling for anything like that, but not sure if bone dry and cold is the certain answer either...well, the dry part. We'll see. I'd take a decent clipper at this point. 

 

 

True.  For our area I guess I'd call any single system over 3" significant.  I'm not really excited for the next week but I wouldn't feel comfortable going all the way out to the 15th as Chad did.  FWIW, he says it's based on models and analog data.  If he is right, it would kinda stink to blow this much of prime time winter. 

[snowstormcanuck]

12z EURO is trying to shove my adamancy up my ass.