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Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm

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The post below is from CT Rain in the New England forum...this would be nice to see:

 

Euro ensembles are just frigid for the first week of 2014. Beautiful PV displacement on our side of the globe with a fantastic ridge bridge from Anchorage to the North Pole to Moscow. Doesn't get any better than that. 

 

What's good for NE is usually not for us....storm-wise.   I have no desire to freeze my ass off in nw flow flurries watching an HECS pattern.

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You're very right.  Besides these clippers, and maybe a moderate snow event around New Year's, this upcoming pattern does look pretty boring, but better than a torch for those with good snowcover.

 

Somewhat boring.

 

The clippers are something to keep things interesting. 

 

Hopefully down this way will get a 6-10" system this winter.

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Everytime someone says the pattern looks boring, it gets snowy :)

 

You would like this kind of boring pattern for sure if even some small clipper systems spread through and the snowcover is kept due to cold temps, but I understand it is boring to many if the best case scenario is a couple of nickle and dime (2-3") clippers.

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IMO the upcoming pattern would support some pretty strong clipper than intensify as they ride the upper level jet down from northern Alberta. It looks promising.

I think a lot of people in these parts sort of forget how a good clipper pattern can be. Its been a while since weve been in one. NW flow and -NAO may prevent the biggie, but it doesnt mean you will be lucky to squeeze out an inch of fluff either, clippers arent always moisture starved. Winters have sort of reshaped themselves around here this past decade. The bigger snowstorms (6"+) and thus total season snowfall have been increasing, which is obviously a good thing, but we cant seem to get in a good clipper parade. Remember the super clipper of 2005 that buried the region in an obsene amount of snow (for a clipper)? Since then clippers have been here but theye been sparse. They are what MADE winters of the 1980s-1990s, and nowadays everytime we get in a NW flow, I think, maybe this will be it lol.

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I think a lot of people in these parts sort of forget how a good clipper pattern can be. Its been a while since weve been in one. NW flow and -NAO may prevent the biggie, but it doesnt mean you will be lucky to squeeze out an inch of fluff either, clippers arent always moisture starved. Winters have sort of reshaped themselves around here this past decade. The bigger snowstorms (6"+) and thus total season snowfall have been increasing, which is obviously a good thing, but we cant seem to get in a good clipper parade. Remember the super clipper of 2005 that buried the region in an obsene amount of snow (for a clipper)? Since then clippers have been here but theye been sparse. They are what MADE winters of the 1980s-1990s, and nowadays everytime we get in a NW flow, I think, maybe this will be it lol.

 

What month did the super clipper come?

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You're on a roll...I like it.

Not sure why Northern_IN_Wx is grumpy about lack of snow, Fort Wayne is above normal for snow on the month by about 3 inches and NWS IWX has had almost 10" for the month. Not saying it has been super snowy but the last couple of Decembers have been worse.

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What's good for NE is usually not for us....storm-wise.   I have no desire to freeze my ass off in nw flow flurries watching an HECS pattern.

 

It's actually very rare to have a very cold pattern that doesn't produce decent snows for us.  One of the few would be say, February 1978. 

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I think a lot of people in these parts sort of forget how a good clipper pattern can be. Its been a while since weve been in one. NW flow and -NAO may prevent the biggie, but it doesnt mean you will be lucky to squeeze out an inch of fluff either, clippers arent always moisture starved. Winters have sort of reshaped themselves around here this past decade. The bigger snowstorms (6"+) and thus total season snowfall have been increasing, which is obviously a good thing, but we cant seem to get in a good clipper parade. Remember the super clipper of 2005 that buried the region in an obsene amount of snow (for a clipper)? Since then clippers have been here but theye been sparse. They are what MADE winters of the 1980s-1990s, and nowadays everytime we get in a NW flow, I think, maybe this will be it lol.

 

Actually, there are plenty of recent clipper parade examples: the first week of February last winter, early in the 2010-11 winter there were several solid clippers, those are two easy examples off the bat.

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Jan 22, 2005.

 

DTW picked up 12.2".

 

I just looked at my records. That was a big event here too. 3 day total was 15.1". Snowed the 20th, 21st, and 22nd. Not sure if the snow on the 20th was associated with the super clipper though.

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Not sure why Northern_IN_Wx is grumpy about lack of snow, Fort Wayne is above normal for snow on the month by about 3 inches and NWS IWX has had almost 10" for the month. Not saying it has been super snowy but the last couple of Decembers have been worse.

Such a depressing climatology IMO. Glad something similar excites people though. I prefer 50 and sun to a parade of clippers...but this is just me. Carry on...

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Such a depressing climatology IMO. Glad something similar excites people though. I prefer 50 and sun to a parade of clippers...but this is just me. Carry on...

Ok well it wasn't the reason I thought, I mean sure I can agree with this and when we compare us to the East Coast there is no comparison. I mean I can understand that this region has been seeking its first big dog since the GHD blizzard where as the East Coast has seen several since. The thing is though, the year is early and we have had some storms this year that were real close to being a big hit for a lot of the region, so I am probably optimistic to a fault but I like the chances of a big hit for this region this year.

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Yes there have been clippers....just not in the frequency we used to get them.

 

Probably because we get cutters/other amplified storms more often, there have been less cold NW flow patterns I would think in recent years; it may be a very slight trend, but a trend nevertheless.  This year looks to be much different in that department, though.

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Ok well it wasn't the reason I thought, I mean sure I can agree with this and when we compare us to the East Coast there is no comparison. I mean I can understand that this region has been seeking its first big dog since the GHD blizzard where as the East Coast has seen several since. The thing is though, the year is early and we have had some storms this year that were real close to being a big hit for a lot of the region, so I am probably optimistic to a fault but I like the chances of a big hit for this region this year.

This is the reason the last storm was so tough to watch unfold and torch. So close but so far...

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