Hoosier Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Risk of a brief warmup looks greater with southward extent (I guess that's climo lol)...I'd be lying if I said I wasn't at all concerned that we get a snowpack destroyer in here next week. Hopefully the Euro loses that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 JB is starting to rattle the 1917-18 winter analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 3:16 AM, buckeye said: JB is starting to rattle the 1917-18 winter analog. January blizzard and all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 GFS still looks cold and snowy... Here's a glimpse http://www.mjcpl.org/historyrescue/records/elmer-crozier-diary-winter-1917-1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 3:20 AM, Hoosier said: January blizzard and all? no specifics...but mentions it had a very similar non-existent hurricane season preceding it as well as volcanic activity a few years prior. Said this December may rival or beat '83 '89....(hard to believe since Dec '89 was one of the most memorable arctic outbreaks I ever recall, we hit -19 at it's peak here in CMH) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 3:29 AM, buckeye said: no specifics...but mentions it had a very similar non-existent hurricane season preceding it as well as volcanic activity a few years prior. Said this December may rival or beat '83 '89....(hard to believe since Dec '89 was one of the most memorable arctic outbreaks I ever recall, we hit -19 at it's peak here in CMH) Pretty high bar. Pay attention to the scale on these maps... And I'll throw 2000 in there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 3:37 AM, Hoosier said: Pretty high bar. Pay attention to the scale on these maps... 1983.png 1989.png And I'll throw 2000 in there... 2000.png The difference between the current month and those 3 are most of the country would be in the blue where as those 3 have above normal in the southwest and 83 had some along the East coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 3:25 AM, DAFF said: GFS still looks cold and snowy... Here's a glimpse http://www.mjcpl.org/historyrescue/records/elmer-crozier-diary-winter-1917-1918 pretty crazy stuff there. Also shows that in the harshest of winters there are usually severe temp swings and brief torches. I remember the day before the January '78 blizzard it was close to 50 with drizzle and fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 00z GFS has a brief warmup before the arctic trains return next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The entire west has been way below normal this December so those above maps look nothing like Dec 2013 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 GFS now going with a warmer look for next week's storm with widespread rains across the sub-forum before an Arctic outbreak through 216 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 With that type of frigid airmass, it's possible it comes down quicker than progged. Something to watch anyway in the days ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 4:59 AM, Snowstorms said: GFS now going with a warmer look for next week's storm with widespread rains across the sub-forum before an Arctic outbreak through 216 hours. Reverted back to the amplified look that the Euro/GEFS members were hinting at a couple or so runs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Anyone else think this storm may have prospects of a severe side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I think it may have severe potential should the positioning of the ridge off the East Coast hold relatively close to progged (potentially a couple or more days of solid moisture return) and obviously depending on the evolution of the system itself. I will say this, generally when you see an upper jet streak of this intensity and size waiting to sink south like this in the West, something potentially noteworthy is not too far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Being that it's December now and on the heels of Christmas, I would like to see the models shift back to a solution that would turn this thing into a snow dump truck instead.... There's still plenty of time for a lot to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 5:48 AM, Jrad08 said: Being that it's December now and on the heels of Christmas, I would like to see the models shift back to a solution that would turn this thing into a snow dump truck instead.... There's still plenty of time for a lot to change I'm not saying your region is going to get rain/severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 6:18 AM, andyhb said: I'm not saying your region is going to get rain/severe. Its a nice pattern developing. As the ridge reloads as advertised by the models, the cold air should have a firm grip across much of the region through the end of December. I wouldn't be surprised to see some nice storms forming in the last 1.5 weeks of December as a nice gradient pattern evolves and the STJ begins flexing its muscles a bit. Certainly the possibility is there for something big to occur as the pattern would favor it. It may finally break the progressiveness that has entrenched us this month, which has been preventing storms from gaining any liable strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 6:50 AM, Angrysummons said: The 1863-64 blizzard was a nutjob in temp contrasts. Early of the morning of the 31st, temps were 60 degrees. By a day later, temps were sub-0 and a historic blizzard was underway. I so wish there were maps for that one. It sounds like it was kinda similar to the Jan 1918 storm. I've read some reports from around here that say that temps were in the mid teens BELOW zero during the afternoon. That is rare territory for these parts. Edit: this is sick! Quote Wayne County, Indiana; January 1, 1864. Wayne County newspapers reported the following news on New Years Day, 1864; The temperature dropped 88 degrees in 12 hours! On the 31st day of December, 1863 at 7 o’clock in the evening the thermometer recorded a temperature of 60 degrees above zero, and at 7 o’clock on New Year’s morning it was 28 degrees below zero. The states of Indiana, Ohio and Illinois were all effected by this abnormal weather. http://dantate.featuredblog.com/?p=303 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Euro went back towards the more amplified idea but broke the incoming wave into pieces and had a dominant northern stream so there wasn't much of a result in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The trend of the GFS is something to watch IMO. While the front side of the storm might bring many to 50°F the overall look is good for some good snow on the back side. To create epic snows a strong tap into the gulf is required and this one looks like it might deliver. To who ?? That is the question of the month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Euro looks awfully warm for any snow here at 168...although this track can change a lot in that time...something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 GFS says Indy is the new Madison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Major ice storm on the long range GFS. Probably gonna change a lot between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Over/under 10" at ORD for the month. I'll take the over. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The medium to long range looks like it shows the same screw zones we just saw in the last couple weeks. If this current storm delivers with lake effect I can't complain, but cyclone will have a legitimate gripe along with much of the middle part of Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 6:29 PM, wisconsinwx said: The medium to long range looks like it shows the same screw zones we just saw in the last couple weeks. If this current storm delivers with lake effect I can't complain, but cyclone will have a legitimate gripe along with much of the middle part of Wisconsin. Difficult to feel sorry for the middle of wisconsin after last season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Euro has a beautiful storm for the Eastern Lakes region...of course at the end of it's cycle.. lol but close to Christmas.!!! 12"+ for Detroit! (YEAH RIGHT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 6:55 PM, Ajdos said: Euro has a beautiful storm for the Eastern Lakes region...of course at the end of it's cycle.. lol but close to Christmas.!!! 12"+ for Detroit! (YEAH RIGHT) The key is...did it lose the 1-day torch around the 20th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 6:58 PM, michsnowfreak said: The key is...did it lose the 1-day torch around the 20th? No the torch is still on. It still is showing a 1-2 day torch...unfortunately.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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