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Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm

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January blizzard and all?

 

no specifics...but mentions it had a very similar non-existent hurricane season preceding it as well as volcanic activity a few years prior.    Said this December may rival or beat '83 '89....(hard to believe since Dec '89 was one of the most memorable arctic outbreaks I ever recall, we hit -19 at it's peak here in CMH)

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no specifics...but mentions it had a very similar non-existent hurricane season preceding it as well as volcanic activity a few years prior.    Said this December may rival or beat '83 '89....(hard to believe since Dec '89 was one of the most memorable arctic outbreaks I ever recall, we hit -19 at it's peak here in CMH)

 

 

Pretty high bar.  Pay attention to the scale on these maps...

 

 

post-14-0-81930400-1386905748_thumb.png

 

 

post-14-0-54316000-1386905757_thumb.png

 

 

 

And I'll throw 2000 in there...

 

 

post-14-0-65693500-1386905849_thumb.png

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Pretty high bar.  Pay attention to the scale on these maps...

 

 

attachicon.gif1983.png

 

 

attachicon.gif1989.png

 

 

 

And I'll throw 2000 in there...

 

 

attachicon.gif2000.png

The difference between the current month and those 3 are most of the country would be in the blue where as those 3 have above normal in the southwest and 83 had some along the East coast.

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GFS still looks cold and snowy...

Here's a glimpse

http://www.mjcpl.org/historyrescue/records/elmer-crozier-diary-winter-1917-1918

 

pretty crazy stuff there.   Also shows that in the harshest of winters there are usually severe temp swings and brief torches.   I remember the day before the January '78 blizzard it was close to 50 with drizzle and fog.

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I think it may have severe potential should the positioning of the ridge off the East Coast hold relatively close to progged (potentially a couple or more days of solid moisture return) and obviously depending on the evolution of the system itself.

 

I will say this, generally when you see an upper jet streak of this intensity and size waiting to sink south like this in the West, something potentially noteworthy is not too far behind.
93i.gif

4weo.gif

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Being that it's December now and on the heels of Christmas, I would like to see the models shift back to a solution that would turn this thing into a snow dump truck instead.... There's still plenty of time for a lot to change <_<

 

I'm not saying your region is going to get rain/severe.

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I'm not saying your region is going to get rain/severe.

 

Its a nice pattern developing. As the ridge reloads as advertised by the models, the cold air should have a firm grip across much of the region through the end of December. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see some nice storms forming in the last 1.5 weeks of December as a nice gradient pattern evolves and the STJ begins flexing its muscles a bit. Certainly the possibility is there for something big to occur as the pattern would favor it. It may finally break the progressiveness that has entrenched us this month, which has been preventing storms from gaining any liable strength. 

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The 1863-64 blizzard was a nutjob in temp contrasts. Early of the morning of the 31st, temps were 60 degrees. By a day later, temps were sub-0 and a historic blizzard was underway.

 

 

I so wish there were maps for that one.  It sounds like it was kinda similar to the Jan 1918 storm.  I've read some reports from around here that say that temps were in the mid teens BELOW zero during the afternoon.  That is rare territory for these parts. 

 

Edit:  this is sick!

 

Wayne County, Indiana; January 1, 1864. Wayne County newspapers reported the following news on New Years Day, 1864; The temperature dropped 88 degrees in 12 hours! On the 31st day of December, 1863 at 7 o’clock in the evening the thermometer recorded a temperature of 60 degrees above zero, and at 7 o’clock on New Year’s morning it was 28 degrees below zero. The states of  Indiana, Ohio and Illinois were all effected by this abnormal weather.

 

http://dantate.featuredblog.com/?p=303

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The trend of the GFS is something to watch IMO. While the front side of the storm might bring many to 50°F the overall look is good for some good snow on the back side.

To create epic snows a strong tap into the gulf is required and this one looks like it might deliver. To who ?? That is the question of the month...

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The medium to long range looks like it shows the same screw zones we just saw in the last couple weeks. If this current storm delivers with lake effect I can't complain, but cyclone will have a legitimate gripe along with much of the middle part of Wisconsin.

Difficult to feel sorry for the middle of wisconsin after last season...

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