Central Illinois Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro going crazy with snow around Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro sounds like it's going full oscar meyer in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro sounds like it's going full oscar meyer in the long range Yeah holy crap... lol sadly its 240 hours out....but something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The Dec 20 +/- timeframe might be one of the best potentials in this subforum since GHD. There's plenty that can go wrong and lead to a somewhat lame outcome but I always get a little excited when there's that kind of amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro sounds like it's going full oscar meyer in the long range Lmfao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro sounds like it's going full oscar meyer in the long range I poo-pooed the euro for warmth, I have to equally poo-poo this one... The Euro has been worse than the NAM in the 240hr range.... and the NAM doesn't even do 240hrs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I poo-pooed the euro for warmth, I have to equally poo-poo this one... The Euro has been worse than the NAM in the 240hr range.... and the NAM doesn't even do 240hrs! Nearly every GFS member shows monster amplication and a storm during this period. Bad news for you is, these always trend hard west and looks like rain for MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Nearly every GFS member shows monster amplication and a storm during this period. Bad news for you is, these always trend hard west and looks like rain for MI I'm going to be in the central UP at that time frame, I would like a storm here, but I really don't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The Dec 20 +/- timeframe might be one of the best potentials in this subforum since GHD. There's plenty that can go wrong and lead to a somewhat lame outcome but I always get a little excited when there's that kind of amplification. Yes I would agree with this, the models all amplify the pattern significantly in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Nearly every GFS member shows monster amplication and a storm during this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Big time signals for something around the 20-21st. Have a really good feeling about this one. EDIT: Holy crap, the 12z Euro shows 1051mb coming into Montana. 985mb in Indiana at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Big time signals for something around the 20-21st. Have a really good feeling about this one. yeah....putting MBY aside, whenever we see this kind of signal for massive amplification and potent vort ejecting from the SW big things happen. Could be a madison special or it could be an Apps runner, but I'll be surprised if there isn't a high impact event during this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Nothing to add here.. All signs point to the first big daddy of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 yeah....putting MBY aside, whenever we see this kind of signal for massive amplification and potent vort ejecting from the SW big things happen. Could be a madison special or it could be an Apps runner, but I'll be surprised if there isn't a high impact event during this period. Hate to compare a setup that's over 200hrs out to anything, but man that 850mb baroclinic zone is eerily similar to you know who. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Sizable 150+ kt jet streak on the 12z Euro at 200 mb coming into the Pacific NW (at the end of the Wundermaps range). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GFS going full Oscar Meyer too in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 One major difference with that storm on the EURO and GFS (versus the crap so far) at 240hr is the 150kt jet digging into the west coast. You don't see that often. It's a pretty good sign that something big will happen around that period when you have that much energy at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 nice write up on the potential storm late next week/weekend http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2013/12/december-19-23-potentially-significant.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Nice clipper Monday-Tuesday as advertised by the models. 12z GGEM drops a nice 4-6" in the GTA. The GFS has 4". Temperatures indicate a 10:1 to 12:1 snow ratio in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Nice clipper Monday-Tuesday as advertised by the models. 12z GGEM drops a nice 4-6" in the GTA. The GFS has 4". Temperatures indicate a 10:1 to 12:1 snow ratio in play. Based on the GFS's depiction, I wouldn't be surprised if there are mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Based on the GFS's depiction, I wouldn't be surprised if there are mixing issues. Its a close call but if we can lay down a snow-cover this weekend, i doubt we'll see any WAA working into this. Any mixing issues IMO will be south of London. GGEM showed all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Its a close call but if we can lay down a snow-cover this weekend, i doubt we'll see any WAA working into this. Any mixing issues IMO will be south of London. GGEM showed all snow. eURO as well is all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 12z Euro advertising a storm with a big warm up for many of us around the 19th. Looks like maybe some kind of wave on the front after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 12z Euro advertising a storm with a big warm up for many of us around the 19th. Looks like maybe some kind of wave on the front after that.The warmup is extremely shortlived...lets hope for snowpack sakes it simply doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The warmup is extremely shortlived...lets hope for snowpack sakes it simply doesn't happen. Interestingly, around D9-10, the storm that'll give us snow this weekend was modeled by the EURO to be a warm western Lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Interestingly, around D9-10, the storm that'll give us snow this weekend was modeled by the EURO to be a warm western Lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The ECMWF has been awful in its long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 nice write up on the potential storm late next week/weekend http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2013/12/december-19-23-potentially-significant.html Northern IN IWX giving a heads up on this in their afternoon discussion this Thursday NEXT STORY ON THE HORIZON...ECMWF PREDICTION OF DEEP AND EXPLOSIVECYCLOGENSIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHTINTO THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS OF AWAVE EJECTING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED ASTHE PATTERN EVOLVES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Lol @ the models losing the amplification in the mid range, the main vort that carves out the trough really never separates and thus doesn't have as much of a chance to dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 so has the gfs with its troughing bias. The -PNA, no blocking signal suggests a west coast/rockies trough with some sort with a ridge in the pacific. That is a change from the high level epo blocking over the last week. The GFS said this week was going to be cold with a trough, while the Euro had 50+ degrees into the UP. Who was right there? Alek was posting disaster warm-up images from the Euro about a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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