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Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm

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I poo-pooed the euro for warmth, I have to equally poo-poo this one...

 

The Euro has been worse than the NAM in the 240hr range.... and the NAM doesn't even do 240hrs!

 

 

Nearly every GFS member shows monster amplication and a storm during this period.

 

Bad news for you is, these always trend hard west and looks like rain for MI

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Nearly every GFS member shows monster amplication and a storm during this period.

 

Bad news for you is, these always trend hard west and looks like rain for MI

 

I'm going to be in the central UP at that time frame, I would like a storm here, but I really don't care.

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The Dec 20 +/- timeframe might be one of the best potentials in this subforum since GHD.  There's plenty that can go wrong and lead to a somewhat lame outcome but I always get a little excited when there's that kind of amplification. 

 

Yes I would agree with this, the models all amplify the pattern significantly in that time frame.

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Big time signals for something around the 20-21st.  Have a really good feeling about this one. 

 

 

yeah....putting MBY aside, whenever we see this kind of signal for massive amplification and potent vort ejecting from the SW big things happen. Could be a madison special or it could be an Apps runner, but I'll be surprised if there isn't a high impact event during this period.

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yeah....putting MBY aside, whenever we see this kind of signal for massive amplification and potent vort ejecting from the SW big things happen. Could be a madison special or it could be an Apps runner, but I'll be surprised if there isn't a high impact event during this period.

 

Hate to compare a setup that's over 200hrs out to anything, but man that 850mb baroclinic zone is eerily similar to you know who.

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nice write up on the potential storm late next week/weekend

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2013/12/december-19-23-potentially-significant.html

Northern IN IWX giving a heads up on this in their afternoon discussion this Thursday

NEXT STORY ON THE HORIZON...ECMWF PREDICTION OF DEEP AND EXPLOSIVECYCLOGENSIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHTINTO THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS OF AWAVE EJECTING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED ASTHE PATTERN EVOLVES.
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so has the gfs with its troughing bias. The -PNA, no blocking signal suggests a west coast/rockies trough with some sort with a ridge in the pacific. That is a change from the high level epo blocking over the last week.

 

The GFS said this week was going to be cold with a trough, while the Euro had 50+ degrees into the UP.

 

Who was right there?

 

Alek was posting disaster warm-up images from the Euro about a week ago.

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