Snowstorms Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Pacific is going to win for at least the first half of November, beyond that it is tough to day but I would expect warmer weather after the brief cool down associated with the backside of this system next week. Yeah I had the same thoughts. The stratosphere at 30mb and 50mb warmed nicely through the course of this month though models depict quite the positive NAO and AO anomaly through Nov. 5th but I doubt the stratosphere will cool that rapidly considering the amount of warming that took place. If we can average around normal in the stratosphere we can itch in a neutral AO anaomly for December. With recurving typhoons playing a major role through the first half I can agree, we will likely escape the brunt of the SE ridge and average normalish while the west cools down. My initial thoughts are a November like last year and December pattern similar to 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Definitely warming at the 5 hPa level. Starting to at 10 hPa Near normal for altitudes below these levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Looks like a potential November Witch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Nice Cyclone. Hot witch! Little creepy for my taste though, haha. Edit: Don't know if I could bring myself to trust her completely. GFS is a big ol' mess with this storm next week. NAO goes positive at the wrong time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 Nice Cyclone. Hot witch! Little creepy for my taste though, haha. So now we see the real Geos... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Well the GGEM has a witch of a storm. Looks like a similar track and low strength that sank the Edmund Fitzgerald. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Well the GGEM has a witch of a storm. Looks like a similar track and low strength that sank the Edmund Fitzgerald. I was going to say if that happens keep the ships off of lake Superior.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Tonight's GGEM seems to have come into agreement with the ECMWF that the digging trough over the western US will absorb some of the energy from the tropical system setting up of the west coast of the US, and eject most of the energy out in one piece for the second wave set to impact this sub forum around Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I was going to say if that happens keep the ships off of lake Superior.... Like Alek said, a big storm will really bring down the lake surface temperatures. Next time LES is possible, there won't be as much mixing near the lakes. The Edmund Fitzgerald storm bottomed out at 980.3mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Speaking of the Fitz..........look at this: the site doesn't allow me to post maps for whatever reason so I will provide the links. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/model/cras61_EF/_gempak/61/fp1_030.html http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/model/cras61_EF/_gempak/61/fp1_036.html link for the overall site: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/model/cras61_EF/cras61_EF.html yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Nice find MN meso. GGEM cranks the wind over all the Lakes, except maybe Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 With the bias of the GFS to be to progressive with the pattern from west to east, it doesn't surprise me that it lacks the connection to the tropical storm off the western US coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Look at how the 24/12z map from the GGEM stated to absorb some of the energy off the west coast into H5 trough, I think the 25/0z will amplify it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Look at how the 24/12z map from the GGEM stated to absorb some of the energy off the west coast into H5 trough, I think the 25/0z will amplify it. That is the 25/0z GGEM run that Geos posted above (I.E. the ship sinker). 00z Euro is heading towards a bomb somewhere (also slower) based on what I'm seeing through 144 hrs. Large, neutrally tilted H5 trough over the Four Corners about to eject out into the Plains in succeeding frames. Edit: @168, 984 mb low in SW MN, Lakes are more firmly in the warm sector this run, would probably be a severe setup in southern parts of the forum with a broad 50-70 kt LLJ in place, although the antecedent pattern is not ideal for having an established WAA axis into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Low at the 850mb level bombs out to the west. ~986mb SW of MSP. It has the cold air connection though in the Plains. I think this will be a Lake Superior cutter in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I agree that Goes posted the 25/0z maps, when i looked at the Environmental Canada site it hadn't updated to the 25/0z H5 maps, it was showing the 24/12z, since it was a hot link when I posted it changed it's now showing the 25/0z maps and a nice piece of energy coming off the baja region....sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I agree that Goes posted the 25/0z maps, when i looked at the Environmental Canada site it hadn't updated to the 25/0z H5 maps, it was showing the 24/12z, since it was a hot link when I posted it changed it's now showing the 25/0z maps and a nice piece of energy coming off the baja region....sorry I gotcha, yeah Meteocentre's website is better, it comes out faster than the EC site and with better graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 At the very least we have something of interest on the maps, the Euro and the GEM are now starting a stronger signal that there may be enough cold air on the back side for snow, although its not there yet, lets see how slow and strong this system gets. By the way here is a link from the MPX WFO, while all weather forecaster's are excellent at that office, forecaster JLT is best at describing long term affects, as you can see in his long term forecast. I won't post the whole disco here just a link for those interested. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MPX&issuedby=MPX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Andy, since Meteocentre's site has shifted to its cold weather outlook, where do you think severe weather may break out? My best guess is for MO into southern IL and IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Andy, since Meteocentre's site has shifted to its cold weather outlook, where do you think severe weather may break out? My best guess is for MO into southern IL and IN. Here is SPC's thoughts on next week ...DISCUSSION... AN ACTIVE/MULTI-DAY SEVERE RISK WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS ESPECIALLY AROUND DAYS 5-6 TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO DAY 7/THURSDAY. WHILE AT LEAST CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISKS SEEM POSSIBLE ON ONE OR MORE DAYS...CONSIDERABLE GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES UPPER TROUGH PRECLUDES ANY SPECIFIC DELINEATION OF 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREAS. IN GENERAL...THE 00Z ECMWF FEATURES A MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION AS COMPARED TO THE FASTER/MORE POSITIVE-TILT 00Z GFS/UKMET GUIDANCE. THAT SAID...CURRENT SPECULATIONS ARE THAT SOME SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUCH AS WEST/NORTHWEST TX INTO WESTERN OK ON DAY 5/TUESDAY...WITH STRONGER TSTMS POTENTIALLY ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF AZ/NM. A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO DAY 6/WEDNESDAY...WITH ALL SEVERE FACETS POTENTIALLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS OK/TX AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF KS/ARKLATEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 12Z GFS bring the system back west, starting to fall more in line with the Euro and GGEM solutions. GFS had the center of the low over DTX yesterday. MSLP a little lower even, 985mb on the next frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 12Z GFS bring the system back west, starting to fall more in line with the Euro and GGEM solutions. GFS had the center of the low over DTX yesterday. MSLP a little lower even, 985mb on the next frame. Flows with my initial thoughts of a storm tracking through the upper great lakes given the pattern set-up. May see some low level cooling on the north side of the storm for some wintry precip but there isnt a enough cold supply across the north. If this were December it would have been great. Lets see what happens thru the next few days. May see a cool down for 1-3 days following the storm then i see a more zonal flow setting up with a SE Ridge to the south and cold air bottled up across the north, gradient like for Mid-November. This may help build the snow cover across the north and increase the Sea ice anomalies on this side of the Arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 GGEM really smacks Ohio, New York, and Ontario on this run. SEMI, and IN a bit earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 after how bad the GGEM was last winter...it has a long ways to go to get out of the nogaps, dgex level doghouse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 after how bad the GGEM was last winter...it has a long ways to go to get out of the nogaps, dgex level doghouse Yeah the GGEM has moved the center of this system from way west of Ontario to now east of it... going to need see some more consistency with this system if its going to be taken seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 0z GFS holding its ground with a cutter through Iowa into WI. Can't wait until next Sunday when models come out an hour earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 0z GGEM goes west and has a similar track as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 26, 2013 Author Share Posted October 26, 2013 Obviously this has all been several days out, but model run to run continuity has been terrible...Not even close. If this is any sign of how things will go during the winter, good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 Obviously this has all been several days out, but model run to run continuity has been terrible...Not even close. If this is any sign of how things will go during the winter, good luck. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41482-francisco-lekima-nao-and-forecast-uncertainty-next-week/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41482-francisco-lekima-nao-and-forecast-uncertainty-next-week/ Yeah that's definitely part of the model mayhem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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