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Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm

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Might only be one model run, but the 06z GFS completely gets rid of any idea of warmth in this region through out the entire run minus a day or two. Plus areas north of I-80 get plenty of snow, would certainly be a pleasant change from what could potentially come. The EPO looks to remain in the tank for a while which should keep things cold, only this time we will have clippers traversing the region.

It has been a reverse of last December. Last year it was warmth with a pattern change always on the horizon, now it's the reverse, models don't accommodate record telleconnection indices, they compute statistical probabilities, this EPO doesn't fit into that.

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It has been a reverse of last December. Last year it was warmth with a pattern change always on the horizon, now it's the reverse, models don't accommodate record telleconnection indices, they compute statistical probabilities, this EPO doesn't fit into that.

Sent from my HTC6435LVW

Lets not put the cart before the horse on this one yet, it is one run of one model. The Euro did have warmth moving in especially in the southern reaches of the region.

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GFS with a worthy of watching system into the weekend...possible long duration light snow event with favorable NE winds

 

gfs_namer_135_precip_p36.gif

 

Isn't it nice when one event ends and we have another or even two to look at? Been keeping an eye on this one for a few days now. The 12z GFS had a much better phase of the nrn stream wave that comes ashore the pac NW and the meandering cut off over AZ/NM. 

 

Lots of cold air to work with with 850's down to -12 C on this run where northern IN gets buried and a nice gradient across the LOT CWA

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Isn't it nice when one event ends and we have another or even two to look at? Been keeping an eye on this one for a few days now. The 12z GFS had a much better phase of the nrn stream wave that comes ashore the pac NW and the meandering cut off over AZ/NM. 

 

 

mid week clipper to keep things fresh and then a potential weekend(!) event...nice

 

ensembles will be interesting...hopefully they aren't all suppressed junk.

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Isn't it nice when one event ends and we have another or even two to look at? Been keeping an eye on this one for a few days now. The 12z GFS had a much better phase of the nrn stream wave that comes ashore the pac NW and the meandering cut off over AZ/NM. 

 

Lots of cold air to work with with 850's down to -12 C on this run where northern IN gets buried and a nice gradient across the LOT CWA

 

Love it!  the last 3 days or so they haven't been phasing it at all...12Z GFS's solution seems plausible IMO ....

 

and with the transfer to the coast keeping that residual moisture in place and plenty of cold air as you alluded to....very very nice!

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Not to get ahead of ourselves but the 12z GFS verbatim looks like it might be suffering from convective feedback placing the sfc low to far east at 120hrs given upper levels and ongoing storms. 

 

 

I'll be a lot more excited once we're inside 100 hrs. 0z Euro had an LAF special and leaves LOT high and dry.

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Not to get ahead of ourselves but the 12z GFS verbatim looks like it might be suffering from convective feedback placing the sfc low to far east at 120hrs given upper levels and ongoing storms. 

 

There is the tiniest of vorts where they are placing the LP....but compared to the energy back in the arklatex region it seems a little displaced

 

good catch Tsnow

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I never get excited or disappointed with anything a model shows more than 3 days out, but id say there is decent potential with this one. What I look for in the longrange are two things: first model consensus, and if thats there, second is wiggle room. If the storm is shown in some sort on a majority of models/ensembles, I consider that consensus 4-5+ days out. Then I look for my wiggle room. Do I have the room for the storm to jog west or east and still do ok? Is there enough cold air for snow in more than just the NW edge of the storm? Is there enough of a pattern that it wont go too far north or miss completely south. Right now...S MI looks to be in an ok spot. But PLEASE no one start a thread on it for at least 24 more hours ;)

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LOL. 12z GFS has the low temp at -6F at DTW on Dec 24th (on Dec 23rd it has a low of -10F at ORD and -26F at MSP). Not saying its going to verify, but all that torch talk from a few days ago is being trolled hard by the LR GFS.

That would be nice!  I know that snowpack would be really nice for ya :D

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LOL. 12z GFS has the low temp at -6F at DTW on Dec 24th (on Dec 23rd it has a low of -10F at ORD and -26F at MSP). Not saying its going to verify, but all that torch talk from a few days ago is being trolled hard by the LR GFS.

 

 

Yeah, we've seen the long range GFS bring down the arctic tundra many times only to moderate as it gets closer (this week is an example, it will be cold but not to the extreme shown earlier). 

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