Jonger Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Might only be one model run, but the 06z GFS completely gets rid of any idea of warmth in this region through out the entire run minus a day or two. Plus areas north of I-80 get plenty of snow, would certainly be a pleasant change from what could potentially come. The EPO looks to remain in the tank for a while which should keep things cold, only this time we will have clippers traversing the region. It has been a reverse of last December. Last year it was warmth with a pattern change always on the horizon, now it's the reverse, models don't accommodate record telleconnection indices, they compute statistical probabilities, this EPO doesn't fit into that. Sent from my HTC6435LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 It has been a reverse of last December. Last year it was warmth with a pattern change always on the horizon, now it's the reverse, models don't accommodate record telleconnection indices, they compute statistical probabilities, this EPO doesn't fit into that. Sent from my HTC6435LVW Lets not put the cart before the horse on this one yet, it is one run of one model. The Euro did have warmth moving in especially in the southern reaches of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 GFS with a worthy of watching system into the weekend...possible long duration light snow event with favorable NE winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 GFS with a worthy of watching system into the weekend...possible long duration light snow event with favorable NE winds Best looking threat of the winter for you guys.. Wish we could get something to wind up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Best looking threat of the winter for you guys.. Wish we could get something to wind up A few of the 6z ensembles were more wound up and the 12z op is more wound up than 6z...this has some potential to trend west/deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 GFS with a worthy of watching system into the weekend...possible long duration light snow event with favorable NE winds mid month cutter....check Christmas barnyard bonanza blizzard....???? but, yeah pretty nice setup for some enhancement to the totals via that run...bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 GFS with a worthy of watching system into the weekend...possible long duration light snow event with favorable NE winds Isn't it nice when one event ends and we have another or even two to look at? Been keeping an eye on this one for a few days now. The 12z GFS had a much better phase of the nrn stream wave that comes ashore the pac NW and the meandering cut off over AZ/NM. Lots of cold air to work with with 850's down to -12 C on this run where northern IN gets buried and a nice gradient across the LOT CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Isn't it nice when one event ends and we have another or even two to look at? Been keeping an eye on this one for a few days now. The 12z GFS had a much better phase of the nrn stream wave that comes ashore the pac NW and the meandering cut off over AZ/NM. mid week clipper to keep things fresh and then a potential weekend(!) event...nice ensembles will be interesting...hopefully they aren't all suppressed junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 mid week clipper to keep things fresh and then a potential weekend(!) event...nice ensembles will be interesting...hopefully they aren't all suppressed junk. hey where do you get the off run ensembles? didn't Raleigh wx go bye bye and Ewall only has 0/12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 hey where do you get the off run ensembles? didn't Raleigh wx go bye bye and Ewall only has 0/12z I just type 6 in place of 0 on the e wall address and voila 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I just type 6 in place of 0 on the e wall address and voila 6z Ah makes sense. Thanks sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Isn't it nice when one event ends and we have another or even two to look at? Been keeping an eye on this one for a few days now. The 12z GFS had a much better phase of the nrn stream wave that comes ashore the pac NW and the meandering cut off over AZ/NM. Lots of cold air to work with with 850's down to -12 C on this run where northern IN gets buried and a nice gradient across the LOT CWA Love it! the last 3 days or so they haven't been phasing it at all...12Z GFS's solution seems plausible IMO .... and with the transfer to the coast keeping that residual moisture in place and plenty of cold air as you alluded to....very very nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Not to get ahead of ourselves but the 12z GFS verbatim looks like it might be suffering from convective feedback placing the sfc low to far east at 120hrs given upper levels and ongoing storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Not to get ahead of ourselves but the 12z GFS verbatim looks like it might be suffering from convective feedback placing the sfc low to far east at 120hrs given upper levels and ongoing storms. I'll be a lot more excited once we're inside 100 hrs. 0z Euro had an LAF special and leaves LOT high and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Not to get ahead of ourselves but the 12z GFS verbatim looks like it might be suffering from convective feedback placing the sfc low to far east at 120hrs given upper levels and ongoing storms. There is the tiniest of vorts where they are placing the LP....but compared to the energy back in the arklatex region it seems a little displaced good catch Tsnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 hey where do you get the off run ensembles? didn't Raleigh wx go bye bye and Ewall only has 0/12z http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewallmref.html Edit: someone beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I never get excited or disappointed with anything a model shows more than 3 days out, but id say there is decent potential with this one. What I look for in the longrange are two things: first model consensus, and if thats there, second is wiggle room. If the storm is shown in some sort on a majority of models/ensembles, I consider that consensus 4-5+ days out. Then I look for my wiggle room. Do I have the room for the storm to jog west or east and still do ok? Is there enough cold air for snow in more than just the NW edge of the storm? Is there enough of a pattern that it wont go too far north or miss completely south. Right now...S MI looks to be in an ok spot. But PLEASE no one start a thread on it for at least 24 more hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 12z GGEM definetly likes the idea.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 That weekend system looks interesting. For my area, would like to see a colder airmass in place at the start but maybe it will work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 LOL. 12z GFS has the low temp at -6F at DTW on Dec 24th (on Dec 23rd it has a low of -10F at ORD and -26F at MSP). Not saying its going to verify, but all that torch talk from a few days ago is being trolled hard by the LR GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 LOL. 12z GFS has the low temp at -6F at DTW on Dec 24th (on Dec 23rd it has a low of -10F at ORD and -26F at MSP). Not saying its going to verify, but all that torch talk from a few days ago is being trolled hard by the LR GFS. That would be nice! I know that snowpack would be really nice for ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 12z GGEM definetly likes the idea.... yeah, not a bad run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Just for sh*ts and gigs, 350mb deep DGZ on that run for northeast IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 That would be nice! I know that snowpack would be really nice for ya Temps of -6*F is nowhere near the realm of "nice." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 LOL. 12z GFS has the low temp at -6F at DTW on Dec 24th (on Dec 23rd it has a low of -10F at ORD and -26F at MSP). Not saying its going to verify, but all that torch talk from a few days ago is being trolled hard by the LR GFS. Yeah, we've seen the long range GFS bring down the arctic tundra many times only to moderate as it gets closer (this week is an example, it will be cold but not to the extreme shown earlier). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 hopefully they aren't all suppressed junk. took a step backwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Hour 120 is looking juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 So close Alek! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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