Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm

Recommended Posts

The op GFS is pretty unbelievable in the day 7-8 timeframe.  850 mb temps of -30C in MN with -26 to -28C into the southern Lakes.  Not like that kind of cold happens all the time in December, but when it does, it's usually later in the month.  Curious to see if we can actually get something of that magnitude.   

 

That would be incredible considering the extreme heat we had to start met autumn.  The eastern half of the CONUS has had a very interesting past 3 months.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 973
  • Created
  • Last Reply

That would be incredible considering the extreme heat we had to start met autumn.  The eastern half of the CONUS has had a very interesting past 3 months.

 

Met autumn was below normal for a good chunk of the sub-forum... The whole year has averaged at or below normal for most of us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am just a lurker except during winter storm season, but has it ever been warmer than average anywhere in the sub forum according to you???

No it hasn't, plus cyclone77 wasn't talking about averages or anything, just making a comment about how extreme the weather has been. Which is completely correct. I think someone had mentioned the range for most places in the subforum were from the upper 90s to single digits this met fall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The op GFS is pretty unbelievable in the day 7-8 timeframe.  850 mb temps of -30C in MN with -26 to -28C into the southern Lakes.  Not like that kind of cold happens all the time in December, but when it does, it's usually later in the month.  Curious to see if we can actually get something of that magnitude.   

 

Gino mentioned this in the afternoon AFD:

 

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING NORTH WITH THE

SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. DOES LOOK LIKE THIS

WILL BE A MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM THAN FRIDAY`S SUBTLE WAVE AND GIVEN

THE NORTHWARD TREND IN THE MODELS THINK IT IS LOOKING

INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THERE COULD BE THE FIRST ACCUMULATING

SNOW FOR MANY AREAS IN THE REGION LATER SUNDAY OR MORE LIKELY

SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH OPEN

THE ARCTIC FLOOD GATES AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS FAIRLY COMMON

FOR THESE MODELS TO EXHIBIT A COLD BIAS THIS TIME OF YEAR BEYOND

DAY 4 AND IT IS ALMOST CERTAIN THAT THE GFS IS SHOWING THIS BIAS

WITH -30C H8 TEMPS NEARBY BY NEXT TUESDAY! LOOKING BACK AT NARR

REANALYSIS DATA THE COLDEST H8 TEMPS IN THIS AREA SINCE 1979 IN

THE DEC 1-15 TIME PERIOD HAS BEEN AROUND -20C...MAKING GFS

SOLUTION LOOK PRETTY ABSURD FROM THIS DISTANCE. HAVING SAID

THAT...EVEN IF MODELS TREND WARM IT STILL LOOKS TO BE A HEALTHY

SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING...WHICH WOULD ONLY BE MAGNIFIED BY ANY

POTENTIAL SNOW COVER FROM SUNDAY`S SYSTEM.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty good agreement between the GFS and the EURO in the long range.

 

test8.gif

 

EPO ridge retrogrades but it also seems to laterally poke into AK. This prevents the downstream GOA trough from really digging. Also PV is on our side of the north pole and is in a good position to keep us supplied with cold air. Things might start going south beyond this period (say beyond the 15th) but that's not a lock. Hopefully the next 10 days will be able to produce an event or two just in case.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If we continue to get better agreement with tomorrow's runs I will probably make a thread at some point.

 

yeah....was tellin' joe....let me see a similar run (compared to the 00Z GFS 04DEC) on the euro somewhere over the next 3 runs and i'll bite a little more

 

EDIT:  I should add....on the books for 3-5 for my early call lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Sunday system is certainly looking more interesting, but I would like to see consistent runs over the next 24hrs before biting on anything.  We could just as easily go to a near/not quite phased solution to complete and total separation and not see much of anything.  I think its more likely whatever spins up is going to be rather meager.  Again, unless we see better runs in the next 24hrs I'm not going to get super excited. 

 

Beyond, probably will see warmer weather in the 18th-20th time frame, the question is does that ridging push back up into Alaska and release another good supply of cold air into the Midwest.  Anything is possible, but my gut says yes another bitter arctic airmass will be on the way just before or right at Christmas. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not sure if the 0z GFS shows good wind profiles yet over the lake, but the 18z run had a decent looking LES setup Saturday evening for eastern WI and northeast IL with delta T's likely exceeding 17°C.

 

Inversion heights look pretty terrible at this juncture but that is just based on the GFS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

...I think someone had mentioned the range for most places in the subforum were from the upper 90s to single digits this met fall.

 

Yeah we had 98 here on Sep 9th, and 7 above on Nov 24. 

 

GFS and earlier Euro runs continue to indicate a 1-3" type snow over a large swath Sunday-Sunday night.  Not looking like a very impressive event, but it looks fairly widespread, and may be enough to give the incoming arctic onslaught some additional bite.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It kinda has a dry zone around N Illinois though; the deformation zone tracks from E Iowa through S Wisconsin, at least the most intense part.  A bit more displaced from the low than normal.

 

 

meh.. I wouldn't worry about those kinds of details this far out.. Right now it is more of a matter of getting some consistency with the surface low and it's track.. Still about 120 or so hrs out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

yeah....was tellin' joe....let me see a similar run (compared to the 00Z GFS 04DEC) on the euro somewhere over the next 3 runs and i'll bite a little more

 

EDIT:  I should add....on the books for 3-5 for my early call lol

 

MKX drinking my birthday juice too.....

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

340 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE LATE

IN THE WEEKEND...THE BULK FALLING SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SFC LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS A

SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT MODELS

GENERALLY HAVE .20 TO .25 TOTAL LIQUID. WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S

AND 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 520S...WOULD LIKELY BE A

HIGHER SNOW RATIO EVENT...POSSIBLY 15-20 TO 1 RATIOS. THOUGH THERE

IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE THEIR MINDS...CURRENT

SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. SOME LAKE ENHANCE

WOULD BE POSSIBLE TOO GIVEN THE COLD TEMPS AND ONSHORE WINDS.

 

 

DVN also mentioned 20:1 ratio in their AFD ... FWIW at this distance....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Aside from the bit of a screwhole over N IL, EURO looks good a widespread 1-3"/2-4". Has been fairly consistent showing the best moisture focusing towards the EC though.

So you think Toronto will actually get accumulating snow out of this? If the GFS is to be believed, we go over to rain on Monday. The incoming cold next week frankly doesn't look very impressive for southern Ontario, at least when compared to what's happening out west. Interestingly, the GFS has the minus 20 line at 850mb coming into our region and yet, in terms of surface temperature, Environment Canada is forecasting highs in the upper 20s. Mind you, we all know the GEM has a warm bias. Al Gore and David Suzuki may have helped to tweak the model in recent years! :lmao:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...