cyclone77 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The op GFS is pretty unbelievable in the day 7-8 timeframe. 850 mb temps of -30C in MN with -26 to -28C into the southern Lakes. Not like that kind of cold happens all the time in December, but when it does, it's usually later in the month. Curious to see if we can actually get something of that magnitude. That would be incredible considering the extreme heat we had to start met autumn. The eastern half of the CONUS has had a very interesting past 3 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 That would be incredible considering the extreme heat we had to start met autumn. The eastern half of the CONUS has had a very interesting past 3 months. Met autumn was below normal for a good chunk of the sub-forum... The whole year has averaged at or below normal for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Met autumn was below normal for a good chunk of the sub-forum... The whole year has averaged at or below normal for most of us. I am just a lurker except during winter storm season, but has it ever been warmer than average anywhere in the sub forum according to you??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I am just a lurker except during winter storm season, but has it ever been warmer than average anywhere in the sub forum according to you??? No it hasn't, plus cyclone77 wasn't talking about averages or anything, just making a comment about how extreme the weather has been. Which is completely correct. I think someone had mentioned the range for most places in the subforum were from the upper 90s to single digits this met fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The op GFS is pretty unbelievable in the day 7-8 timeframe. 850 mb temps of -30C in MN with -26 to -28C into the southern Lakes. Not like that kind of cold happens all the time in December, but when it does, it's usually later in the month. Curious to see if we can actually get something of that magnitude. Gino mentioned this in the afternoon AFD: MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. DOES LOOK LIKE THIS WILL BE A MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM THAN FRIDAY`S SUBTLE WAVE AND GIVEN THE NORTHWARD TREND IN THE MODELS THINK IT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THERE COULD BE THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MANY AREAS IN THE REGION LATER SUNDAY OR MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH OPEN THE ARCTIC FLOOD GATES AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS FAIRLY COMMON FOR THESE MODELS TO EXHIBIT A COLD BIAS THIS TIME OF YEAR BEYOND DAY 4 AND IT IS ALMOST CERTAIN THAT THE GFS IS SHOWING THIS BIAS WITH -30C H8 TEMPS NEARBY BY NEXT TUESDAY! LOOKING BACK AT NARR REANALYSIS DATA THE COLDEST H8 TEMPS IN THIS AREA SINCE 1979 IN THE DEC 1-15 TIME PERIOD HAS BEEN AROUND -20C...MAKING GFS SOLUTION LOOK PRETTY ABSURD FROM THIS DISTANCE. HAVING SAID THAT...EVEN IF MODELS TREND WARM IT STILL LOOKS TO BE A HEALTHY SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING...WHICH WOULD ONLY BE MAGNIFIED BY ANY POTENTIAL SNOW COVER FROM SUNDAY`S SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Since this may become relevant, here's a list of the lowest 850 mb temps per month for various locations. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/unr/soo/T850/low50-T850.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Pretty good agreement between the GFS and the EURO in the long range. EPO ridge retrogrades but it also seems to laterally poke into AK. This prevents the downstream GOA trough from really digging. Also PV is on our side of the north pole and is in a good position to keep us supplied with cold air. Things might start going south beyond this period (say beyond the 15th) but that's not a lock. Hopefully the next 10 days will be able to produce an event or two just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Interesting look of the 300mb Jet on the 00z GFS (for the 12/8/13 storm). This was also the GFS's most amped run for our sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Northeast IL and December 8th are good friends, just throwing that out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Northeast IL and December 8th are good friends, just throwing that out there. Fo sho.....it's my birthday! nice little set up sunday into Monday for LOT and others....high ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Fo sho.....it's my birthday! nice little set up sunday into Monday for LOT and others....high ratio If we continue to get better agreement with tomorrow's runs I will probably make a thread at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Temps are looking Artic cold next week on the 0z GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 0z GFS with 850's down to -22 deg C and highs just above 0 on Tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 If we continue to get better agreement with tomorrow's runs I will probably make a thread at some point. yeah....was tellin' joe....let me see a similar run (compared to the 00Z GFS 04DEC) on the euro somewhere over the next 3 runs and i'll bite a little more EDIT: I should add....on the books for 3-5 for my early call lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The Sunday system is certainly looking more interesting, but I would like to see consistent runs over the next 24hrs before biting on anything. We could just as easily go to a near/not quite phased solution to complete and total separation and not see much of anything. I think its more likely whatever spins up is going to be rather meager. Again, unless we see better runs in the next 24hrs I'm not going to get super excited. Beyond, probably will see warmer weather in the 18th-20th time frame, the question is does that ridging push back up into Alaska and release another good supply of cold air into the Midwest. Anything is possible, but my gut says yes another bitter arctic airmass will be on the way just before or right at Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Not sure if the 0z GFS shows good wind profiles yet over the lake, but the 18z run had a decent looking LES setup Saturday evening for eastern WI and northeast IL with delta T's likely exceeding 17°C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Not sure if the 0z GFS shows good wind profiles yet over the lake, but the 18z run had a decent looking LES setup Saturday evening for eastern WI and northeast IL with delta T's likely exceeding 17°C. Inversion heights look pretty terrible at this juncture but that is just based on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 ...I think someone had mentioned the range for most places in the subforum were from the upper 90s to single digits this met fall. Yeah we had 98 here on Sep 9th, and 7 above on Nov 24. GFS and earlier Euro runs continue to indicate a 1-3" type snow over a large swath Sunday-Sunday night. Not looking like a very impressive event, but it looks fairly widespread, and may be enough to give the incoming arctic onslaught some additional bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 00z euro abandons the 12z euro run and jumps in bed with the GFS with the surface low tracking from near Dayton to Toledo/Detroit and on to the nne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 00z euro abandons the 12z euro run and jumps in bed with the GFS with the surface low tracking from near Dayton to Toledo/Detroit and on to the nne. Good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 00z euro abandons the 12z euro run and jumps in bed with the GFS with the surface low tracking from near Dayton to Toledo/Detroit and on to the nne. Ugh, Dry Slut time? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Good news. It kinda has a dry zone around N Illinois though; the deformation zone tracks from E Iowa through S Wisconsin, at least the most intense part. A bit more displaced from the low than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 It kinda has a dry zone around N Illinois though; the deformation zone tracks from E Iowa through S Wisconsin, at least the most intense part. A bit more displaced from the low than normal. meh.. I wouldn't worry about those kinds of details this far out.. Right now it is more of a matter of getting some consistency with the surface low and it's track.. Still about 120 or so hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Nice, Tropical Northern Hemisphere (+TNH), looking to do work here in December.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 00z euro ensemble mean in total agreement with GFS/EURO as far as track goes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Aside from the bit of a screwhole over N IL, EURO looks good a widespread 1-3"/2-4". Has been fairly consistent showing the best moisture focusing towards the EC though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 yeah....was tellin' joe....let me see a similar run (compared to the 00Z GFS 04DEC) on the euro somewhere over the next 3 runs and i'll bite a little more EDIT: I should add....on the books for 3-5 for my early call lol MKX drinking my birthday juice too..... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 340 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013 .SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE BULK FALLING SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PASS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT MODELS GENERALLY HAVE .20 TO .25 TOTAL LIQUID. WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S AND 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 520S...WOULD LIKELY BE A HIGHER SNOW RATIO EVENT...POSSIBLY 15-20 TO 1 RATIOS. THOUGH THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE THEIR MINDS...CURRENT SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. SOME LAKE ENHANCE WOULD BE POSSIBLE TOO GIVEN THE COLD TEMPS AND ONSHORE WINDS. DVN also mentioned 20:1 ratio in their AFD ... FWIW at this distance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Aside from the bit of a screwhole over N IL, EURO looks good a widespread 1-3"/2-4". Has been fairly consistent showing the best moisture focusing towards the EC though. So you think Toronto will actually get accumulating snow out of this? If the GFS is to be believed, we go over to rain on Monday. The incoming cold next week frankly doesn't look very impressive for southern Ontario, at least when compared to what's happening out west. Interestingly, the GFS has the minus 20 line at 850mb coming into our region and yet, in terms of surface temperature, Environment Canada is forecasting highs in the upper 20s. Mind you, we all know the GEM has a warm bias. Al Gore and David Suzuki may have helped to tweak the model in recent years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS in serious troll mode. From sub -20c 850 temps to a driving rainstorm within 48 hours in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS in serious troll mode. From sub -20c 850 temps to a driving rainstorm within 48 hours in the LR. For TOR I would assume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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