Snowstorms Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Idk if anyone remembers but what were seeing on the models between Dec 5-10 happened back in in Dec 2007 as well. We saw waves of energy forming along a frontal boundary and many got pounded by snowfall, ice and rain. This lead to big Gulf storm around Dec 15-18th which dropped about 9-12" in my neck of the woods. Again, anything is highly possible. But what may end up happening is a series of frontal storms as depicted on models between the 5th and the 10th, then perhaps a decent storm around Dec 12-15th as the progressive pattern slows down and storms can dig further south. After that, there's a world of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 We'll have to see what happens when we get closer. Their's many possibilities on the table. If the -EPO does weaken, will it be transient or will it continue for a long time thus opening the gates to mild Pacific Air, similar to 2011? When you analyze previous analogs that had such a similar -EPO episode as compared to this year, the -EPO did weaken; however, it was transient and overall it remained negative for a majority of the Winter season. At this point I doubt we will develop any consistent -AO/NAO anomaly as the odds are against it, but that doesn't rule it out from happening either. The MJO is key to watch as well. If it weakens, this will only mean wamer anomalies for much of the East but if it can manage to move into favorable phases it may create a few days mid month where anything is possible, but then a period of below normal conditions as the EPO goes negative again. Also, at this point in time, we may see a pseudo -NAO developing. We may see an active storm track develop from about Dec 10th to the 25th in my opinion as the STJ flexes its muscles a bit with a gradient pattern in place. Explain what a pseudo -NAO would look like. I do think a gradient pattern can form this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Explain what a pseudo -NAO would look like. I do think a gradient pattern can form this month. Where you may see a storm stalling off the coast of Newfoundland, creating a "pseudo" 50/50 Low despite a +NAO anomaly. This in turn would perhaps create a weak ridge on the Eastern side of Greenland towards Western Europe but the index would still be a +NAO. The reason being; It will be transient, which is why it would be considered a pseudo -NAO anomaly. It can sometimes help, as it would push cooler anomalies further south when a storm is developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Cold 00Z Euro at the end of the run for Toronto, northern Michigan, and Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Cold 00Z Euro at the end of the run for Toronto, northern Michigan, and Wisconsin Kind of exemplifies our plan B. EPO ridge retrogrades but we pop a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 12z EURO seems to be maintaining our -EPO more than the last couple of runs. Looks like -AO too with the PV dipping into Nunavut around D9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 12z EURO seems to be maintaining our -EPO more than the last couple of runs. Looks like -AO too with the PV dipping into Nunavut around D9. Wouldn't be too surprising to see the models rush the -EPO breakdown as that is common with entrenched regimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Models this morning are in agreement there will be a fairly widespread light(2-3 inches) snow event for the region around Sunday as a piece of energy ejects from the trough and causes precip to break out in the cold to very cold air that is firmly in place. As of now it's not a juicy, wound-up system that drops anything too heavy, but maybe that can improve as it gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Models this morning are in agreement there will be a fairly widespread light(2-3 inches) snow event for the region around Sunday as a piece of energy ejects from the trough and causes precip to break out in the cold to very cold air that is firmly in place. As of now it's not a juicy, wound-up system that drops anything too heavy, but maybe that can improve as it gets closer. Looking at the temp profiles it would appear the snow to water ratio would be pretty decent as well. Could fluff up quite nicely, if for example the Euro works out verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Following the Sunday system the latest Euro is just brutal in the north. It has an 850 temp around -30C and surface temp not exceeding -15F Monday in parts of North Dakota. Verbatim, I would have a high temp Monday of about 10F and Tuesday about 0F. That would be colder than anything we had last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 18z GFS. for 13th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Following the Sunday system the latest Euro is just brutal in the north. It has an 850 temp around -30C and surface temp not exceeding -15F Monday in parts of North Dakota. Verbatim, I would have a high temp Monday of about 10F and Tuesday about 0F. That would be colder than anything we had last winter. sounds like the gradient pattern is taking shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 18z GFS. for 13th Don't tease. Would be a pretty good share the wealth kind of storm for a lot of us here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Don't tease. Would be a pretty good share the wealth kind of storm for a lot of us here. Verbatim 18z GFS sucks for Toronto (dryslot and mixing issues). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Wouldn't be too surprising to see the models rush the -EPO breakdown as that is common with entrenched regimes. Interesting to see what the EURO ensembles show. From the NE thread I've heard that the last few haven't been pretty for mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 One would think with the PNA likely to remain negative and no blocking, the next couple weeks, like Snowstorms has basically hinted at, should feature enough action in the form of overrunning events and cutters to keep many of us satisfied at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Following the Sunday system the latest Euro is just brutal in the north. It has an 850 temp around -30C and surface temp not exceeding -15F Monday in parts of North Dakota. Verbatim, I would have a high temp Monday of about 10F and Tuesday about 0F. That would be colder than anything we had last winter. Seeing white: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I think we could very well get clocked here in the northern subs of MSP during the next two days. And if the 12/02 12z run of the Euro is any where close to verifying over the next 10 days almost all of this subforum should do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I think we could very well get clocked here in the northern subs of MSP during the next two days. And if the 12/02 12z run of the Euro is any where close to verifying over the next 10 days almost all of this subforum should do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 What the EURO shows looks like a sweet setup for lake effect snow in lower Michigan. It might be too windy though, by looking at how close those bars are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 What the EURO shows looks like a sweet setup for lake effect snow in lower Michigan. It might be too windy though, by looking at how close those bars are. Actually it is not bad as far as the wind goes. Strong enough to carry the bands inland a bit but not strong enough to rip them apart. Problem could be moisture and this all depends on how quick the storm lifts out of the GL? It definitely is the preferred flow ( w/wnw ) for LES here in W.MI though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Actually it is not bad as far as the wind goes. Strong enough to carry the bands inland a bit but not strong enough to rip them apart. Problem could be moisture and this all depends on how quick the storm lifts out of the GL? It definitely is the preferred flow ( w/wnw ) for LES here in W.MI though.. Sure is. Moisture seems to be an issue with many west-wind events around W. Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Sure is. Moisture seems to be an issue with many west-wind events around W. Michigan. Thus the problem with having such a short fetch to play with. Most of the better LES events here come when a storm meanders in the UP/Superior. Can still get decent wnw/w/ flow events without that but yeah much harder to do. Why in my dreams the lake would be expanded 40miles ( adding 80 more miles east to west ) on both sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 My dream has always been a coastal mountain range along the lake. Would have world class skiing and steamboat-dry powder in massive quantities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 My dream has always been a coastal mountain range along the lake. Would have world class skiing and steamboat-dry powder in massive quantities. Closest to that would be the western U.P. or the Tug Hill Plateau in NY. It would be nice to have true mountains with several thousand feet of relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Did anyone notice how the storms on the end of the AM GFS run had the low centered in the cold sector ?? Would this be an Alberta clipper type of set up even though is didn't originate from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 6 days out there is a storm coming out of the SW and we should be in the cold sector, but the moisture is pretty limited.... Typical for where we live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The op GFS is pretty unbelievable in the day 7-8 timeframe. 850 mb temps of -30C in MN with -26 to -28C into the southern Lakes. Not like that kind of cold happens all the time in December, but when it does, it's usually later in the month. Curious to see if we can actually get something of that magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The op GFS is pretty unbelievable in the day 7-8 timeframe. 850 mb temps of -30C in MN with -26 to -28C into the southern Lakes. Not like that kind of cold happens all the time in December, but when it does, it's usually later in the month. Curious to see if we can actually get something of that magnitude. EURO has been supporting a similar idea for a few runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Looks like potential for a sig. system for the western midwest late weekend. As of now it looks like a minor system but considering that it may well be our best snow to date this winter it is something to look at. You think the moisture source will be better than what the models currently suggest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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