Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion

[JoMo]

I looked at weatherunderground the 1st wave the wxbell maps are def to high with the snow.

 

 

Its more like ZR to sleet to snow with a lot of ice a bit of sleet and a half foot of snow.

Yeah the Wxbell Euro snow map is high, use it to just pinpoint where frozen precip might be though.

[mimillman]

Wasn't there a storm of similar magnitude that affected the same exact areas right around this time?

[DAFF]

This is the best thing for those of us who do not have paid access to free euro stuff.

 

Just search for a major city near you. The 10 day forecast in 6 hr increments

 

http://www.yr.no/place/United_States/Michigan/Detroit_Metropolitan_Wayne_County_Airport/long.htmlMonday

Monday the 09th looks to be almost 40mm of precip..... Thanks for the link.

[Hoosier]

Wasn't there a storm of similar magnitude that affected the same exact areas right around this time?

 

 

What year?

[cyclone77]

Euro shows that wave dropping a few inches of snow over eastern Iowa and northern IL late Thursday night/Friday morning.  If we can get a few inches of snow down from that it's conceivable we could be looking at some subzero lows by Saturday morning over parts of the area. 

[Geos]

GGEM and GFS following the EURO solution of a second wave impacting most of the subforum - where most of us reside.

[wisconsinwx]

What year?

 

Could he be thinking of Dec. 10-11, 2007?  I know Missouri, Illinois and even S Wisconsin had major ice issues with a decent snowstorm on the NW edge of that area as well.

[mimillman]

What year?

I think around the 17th last year. Didn't LAF and Indy end up pretty well?

[Geos]

Could he be thinking of Dec. 10-11, 2007?  I know Missouri, Illinois and even S Wisconsin had major ice issues with a decent snowstorm on the NW edge of that area as well.

 

Yeah there was ice storm warnings up around here for those dates. 6" of snow 4 days later.

[snowlover2]

0z GFS appears much colder with the initial wave around the 6th. Keeps the secondary to far south.

[Snowstorms]

Latest GFS through 165 hours, seems to progressive when you analyze the charts, with a fast moving jet stream. This is not good for defined storms to develop. A trough enveloped in the Plains and Western Canada area, then the jetstream speeding by through the Lakes area. This isnt really allowing storms to dig deeper. Lets see. 

 

Two waves of energy, one around Dec 6th then another further south around Dec 7th.  

[Harry]

FYI.. That storm towards the end of the 12z euro on the 9th/10th would be brief snow/mix to rain for most from St. Louis on up this way. This based on 2mTemps, 850s, thickness.. Surface low tracks to near Chicago..

[mimillman]

_{Surprised there's not more talk on here about the 00z GFS. More-than-decent hit for folks down in St. Louis and central Indiana.}

_{Making a thread for the threat now.}

[Harry]

_{Surprised there's not more talk on here about the 00z GFS. More-than-decent hit for folks down in St. Louis and central Indiana.}

_{Making a thread for the threat now.}

 

Probably has to do with the fact it is still 5+ days out. Thus chances are good it changes. Not like we are talking a strong system either and thus still a possibility it vanishes..

[Geos]

Probably has to do with the fact it is still 5+ days out. Thus chances are good it changes. Not like we are talking a strong system either and thus still a possibility it vanishes..

 

I don't think either one of them are going away. They've been on the models for at least 4 days now. The strength of both systems has yet to be determined though.

[wisconsinwx]

 

Latest GFS through 165 hours, seems to progressive when you analyze the charts, with a fast moving jet stream. This is not good for defined storms to develop. A trough enveloped in the Plains and Western Canada area, then the jetstream speeding by through the Lakes area. This isnt really allowing storms to dig deeper. Lets see. 

 

Two waves of energy, one around Dec 6th then another further south around Dec 7th.  

 

 

Do you think it will be right, or just the GFS' usual progressive bias?

[Harry]

I don't think either one of them are going away. They've been on the models for at least 4 days now. The strength of both systems has yet to be determined.

 

I always feel better about storm threats once it is fully inside of 120hrs. Have seen too many that showed a system for days leading up to 120hrs and then it begins to unravel and end up being hardly a speck by storm time. Or it ends up getting pushed down the road a bit. Especially with these kinds of systems that are supposed to form along a front.

[Geos]

I always feel better about storm threats once it is fully inside of 120hrs. Have seen too many that showed a system for days leading up to 120hrs and then it begins to unravel and end up being hardly a speck by storm time. Or it ends up getting pushed down the road a bit. Especially with these kinds of systems that are supposed to form along a front.

 

Yeah like in 2011-2012. But hopefully there will be no sign of those antics this winter.

[Snowstorms]

Do you think it will be right, or just the GFS' usual progressive bias?

Well we do have a strong polar jet. With the unfavorable Atlantic and PNA, were seeing a progressive jet stream. On the other hand, the PV is on this side of the globe and as long as we can maintain a -EPO, the west should stay relatively below normal in combination with a SE ridge. This sets us up for a gradient pattern.

With the strong polar jet, we may see some clippers racing by. If however, they can dig deep enough and phase with pulses of energy further south we got something to discuss.

Looks very similar to whats being shown on the models to Dec 07/08.

The period from Dec 7 to dec 20 is very interesting in my opinion. Its possible we may see 2-4 storms.

[Hoosier]

I think around the 17th last year. Didn't LAF and Indy end up pretty well?

 

We had the storm on the 26th (Indy fared better). 

[hawkeye_wx]

Looking very cold and dry here later in the week into the weekend.  The Euro has finally abandoned the slow fropa, so a mild Wednesday is out.  We may be stuck in the teens for highs for a few days.  Wind and no snow cover should keep us from really diving into the deep freeze.  Maybe another system can develop along the baroclinic zone next week and give us something.... otherwise, there's not much to be excited about on the west end of the subforum.

 

I've seen December 2008 mentioned a few times.  I ended up getting about double our average snowfall that month, but most of it was mid to late month(4" was the best snow event).  The first half was mostly cold and dry.  Hopefully, we can get a similar second half this December.

[cyclone77]

Looking very cold and dry here later in the week into the weekend.  The Euro has finally abandoned the slow fropa, so a mild Wednesday is out.  We may be stuck in the teens for highs for a few days.  Wind and no snow cover should keep us from really diving into the deep freeze.  Maybe another system can develop along the baroclinic zone next week and give us something.... otherwise, there's not much to be excited about on the west end of the subforum.

 

I've seen December 2008 mentioned a few times.  I ended up getting about double our average snowfall that month, but most of it was mid to late month(4" was the best snow event).  The first half was mostly cold and dry.  Hopefully, we can get a similar second half this December.

 

12z Euro says check back after Dec 10th.  Cold and dry is our reality with the exception of the first few days, which may feature sprinkles and 40 degree warmth.  Cold isn't too exciting to me this time of year without snow cover.  No matter how cold it gets you always wonder how much colder would it be with some snow on the ground.

[snowstormcanuck]

Hideous looking Pacific on the EURO by Day 10. Looks like the EURO ensembles may be on to something with that mid-month warm up.

[wisconsinwx]

LOL, so primarily cold and dry followed by a return to winter 2011-12? Most of us couldn't dream up a worse start to December if true.

[dmc76]

Hideous looking Pacific on the EURO by Day 10. Looks like the EURO ensembles may be on to something with that mid-month warm up.

Golf weather by xmas? Ugh

[snowstormcanuck]

Golf weather by xmas? Ugh

 

Well, it could be transient. But if that GOA trough verifies, unless we get help from the Atlantic, there should be a decent flood of PAC air for at least a few days. It has been showing up for several runs now so it can't be completely discarded.

[Geos]

EURO ensembles beyond D10 show a lessening of the -EPO as it moves a bit west, but a -WPO develops. Blocking forming from western AK over the Pole to the east side of Greenland. I think that would mean Canadian air for our region, not full blow Pacific air. Cold air masses will want to press southwards out of southern Canada.  

[michsnowfreak]

LOL, so primarily cold and dry followed by a return to winter 2011-12? Most of us couldn't dream up a worse start to December if true.

Lol who said anything about 2011-12? I cannot remember a December that did not start with panic on weather boards.

[michsnowfreak]

EURO ensembles beyond D10 show a lessening of the -EPO as it moves a bit west, but a -WPO develops. Blocking forming from western AK over the Pole to the east side of Greenland. I think that would mean Canadian air for our region, not full blow Pacific air. Cold air masses will want to press southwards out of southern Canada.

The cfs weeklies show no torch at all north of i80 the next 4 weeks. Not sure about euro weeklies. A note, no torch does not mean there won't be a few warm days however.

[Snowstorms]

EURO ensembles beyond D10 show a lessening of the -EPO as it moves a bit west, but a -WPO develops. Blocking forming from western AK over the Pole to the east side of Greenland. I think that would mean Canadian air for our region, not full blow Pacific air. Cold air masses will want to press southwards out of southern Canada.  

 

We'll have to see what happens when we get closer. Their's many possibilities on the table. If the -EPO does weaken, will it be transient or will it continue for a long time thus opening the gates to mild Pacific Air, similar to 2011? When you analyze previous analogs that had such a similar -EPO episode as compared to this year, the -EPO did weaken; however, it was transient and overall it remained negative for a majority of the Winter season. At this point I doubt we will develop any consistent -AO/NAO anomaly as the odds are against it, but that doesn't rule it out from happening either. 

 

The MJO is key to watch as well. If it weakens, this will only mean wamer anomalies for much of the East but if it can manage to move into favorable phases it may create a few days mid month where anything is possible, but then a period of below normal conditions as the EPO goes negative again. Also, at this point in time, we may see a pseudo -NAO developing. 

 

We may see an active storm track develop from about Dec 10th to the 25th in my opinion as the STJ flexes its muscles a bit with a gradient pattern in place.