Harry Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Yes, it is the -EPO combined with other teleconnections that would lead to cold and boring. The pattern isn't dependent on the -EPO solely but if it is dominant along with other unfavorable teleconnections things will end up like this past week. Agreed. I don't like seeing that 18z GFS system/it's track but yeah it is still out there in lala land.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Just a FYI.. 08-09 had a very -EPO that Dec and January.. Not sure where some are getting this idea a -EPO means dry/no storm chances? With THIS what is more important is the PNA. It was a negative in Dec and weakly positive in January. And when the EPO did go back to positive we torched big ala late Dec/Early Jan.. 08-09 had a beautiful pattern set-up, and similarly, its one of my primary analogs I'm using for December. Like that year i think around Christmas time as the MJO progresses into unfavorable phases, the -EPO will break down, and give way to warmer than normal temperatures. It'll depend how the AO/NAO/PNA behave around that time as well but its quite possible we'll see atleast a 2-3 week wintry period in this region like 08-09 through Dec 25. Secondly, in 08-09 we had a wave train of storms coming onshore across the Pacific, with very cold anomalies in place, which later progressed East and gave us snow. The only problem im concerned about is the progressiveness in the jet stream. This may not allow storms to gain alot of energy, not to say they wont happen, but if the pattern becomes more confined we'll see better phasing/development. With the current K/W progressing through the Pacific towards the ENSO regions i could potentially see some STJ enhancement at times, but it'll also depend how the AAM/GWO interact. The warm Atlantic water temps is also a benefit. Its an interesting pattern. I like the storms around Dec 2-5, Dec 7-9, Dec 11-14 and we could see another final around the 18th. Hopefully the SE Ridge helps us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 00Z GFS looking quite a bit weaker with the storm. We will have to wait for a few more frames, but something might be brewing in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 We had a deep snowpack build up in Dec, torched away around new years, then an even deeper snowpack buildup in January. This time, I will take the torch before the snowpack is even laid down, then get an epic pack Yeah I had about a 14" snow pack going into that post Christmas Day warmup. Then in January there was about 21" here that month. Could have easily ended up with a solid 2' snow pack/glacier by the end of the month, if it wouldn't have been for that firehose before New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 00Z GFS looking quite a bit weaker with the storm. We will have to wait for a few more frames, but something might be brewing in the SW. Suppression is dominant on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 An 08-09 verbatim doesn't do much for me. I know areas farther north did much better relative to average. Also, we were on the northern fringe of the January 2009 storm that dumped over a foot on Indy (did ok in that one but not nearly as good as areas farther south). I guess the good thing is that you can't really take analogs verbatim, and I'd be willing to roll the dice with a similar pattern. As far as next week, I think it's likely that we see 50s here for a day or three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Suppression is dominant on this run. Energy kicks out too fast on this GFS run. The ingredients are there for a big Lakes storm, but the timing is off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Energy kicks out too fast on this GFS run. The ingredients are there for a big Lakes storm, but the timing is off. With all this crap going on in the pattern right now, models will have a difficult time determining the track, intensity and precip type until within 84 hours. I suspect many different solutions till mid next week. I mean, look at this past storm. The MJO is all over the place on the models. I also think the GFS is overdoing the cold shot too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Hour 348 would give us 2011-2012 all over again. Thankfully its 348. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 We need this system to kick out as a bowling ball - one Low system. GEM snowfall through 240hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 The GEM kicks almost all the energy out in one piece see h132 http://www.plainsweather.com/wxmap/model/ggem/00Z/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 00Z Euro simply slams our expat SSC with brutal cold and a nice low: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 I can't remember the last time we've seen a massive blob of cold covering everyone north of 45 degrees latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Yeah, the 00z Euro was very cold in North Dakota. -30 F surface temps showing up at times. Northern Minnesota and Wisconsin get in on the extreme cold as well. Not quite as cold as areas farther west, which are under a heavier snowpack, but wow that's cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 The 00z GFS is crap after 96 hours. If you look at the H5 progression in Montana its splits off some energy and ruins the rest fo the run. The Euro is what you would expect given the teleconnectors. Which is not good for me. That cold is impressive. But the front can't even clear the Southern CONUS. The GOM is not cooled at all. And when the next system comes out it the cold will be vaporized where I am with no blocking. Without clearing the GOM at all the Euro shows on frame 216 vs 240HR how fast the cold can be sent back North. I don't have access to H5 vort for the euro this far out. But wind vectors look like something is trying to pop over Wyoming/NE Colorado area if that is the case. I am definitely screwed and there is still no blocking. In another 24 hours the 0c 850mb line will be another 500 miles North. Probably good for the Western Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 The 06z GFS drops the hokey BS of splitting the energy in Montana in the day 4-5 range and now has a Western lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 The 06z GFS drops the hokey BS of splitting the energy in Montana in the day 4-5 range and now has a Western lakes cutter. That western cutter has been shown on all models for days, its just a short term sucky situation to deal with. The cold drops down behind it and looks to become the pattern going forward with a weak SE ridge, that's probably going to yield a more ideal stormtrack for most of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 That western cutter has been shown on all models for days, its just a short term sucky situation to deal with. The cold drops down behind it and looks to become the pattern going forward with a weak SE ridge, that's probably going to yield a more ideal stormtrack for most of the subforum.Disappointing to lose such a great snow base up here tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 That western cutter has been shown on all models for days, its just a short term sucky situation to deal with. The cold drops down behind it and looks to become the pattern going forward with a weak SE ridge, that's probably going to yield a more ideal stormtrack for most of the subforum. Disappointing to lose such a great snow base up here tho. Hopefully it flattens out somewhat. The flow behind it should bring a nice LES setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 GFS has no idea what it wants to do. 6z had the big storm. 12z had supressed city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Looks like YYZ may pick up a couple inches this late weekend! As per the GEM and GFS (12Z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 The GEM kicks almost all the energy out in one piece see h132 http://www.plainsweather.com/wxmap/model/ggem/00Z/ anywhere or anyway to animate/loop those images? Love those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 The GEM is total garbage. The GFS is next. The gfs and gem are both good for my region. But they look ridiculous. Every new run it seems like the GFS is trying to pull something absurd. Why does the GFS bleed off energy Eastward. Then pop a powerful h5 vort will bleeding more energy SW and taking the H5 vort along the border into Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 That western cutter has been shown on all models for days, its just a short term sucky situation to deal with. The cold drops down behind it and looks to become the pattern going forward with a weak SE ridge, that's probably going to yield a more ideal stormtrack for most of the subforum. If you are referring to the storm around the 7th, that statement is wrong. Euro has shown a west GLC for the most part up until last nights 0z. GFS and GGEM have been showing this moving across the OV for the most part. Don't remember seeing the GGEM show a west GLC and the GFS i've seen twice. Once on today's 6z and the other on yesterday's 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 If you are referring to the storm around the 7th, that statement is wrong. Euro has shown a west GLC for the most part up until last nights 0z. GFS and GGEM have been showing this moving across the OV for the most part. Don't remember seeing the GGEM show a west GLC and the GFS i've seen twice. Once on today's 6z and the other on yesterday's 18z. That's a different system, that will go south of me. The storm on the 4th through 5th will be a UP, Minnesota situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 That's a different system, that will go south of me. The storm on the 4th through 5th will be a UP, Minnesota situation. Ok my fault then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 the euro IMO is way more realistic at 12z than the other two models. SW bias and all. I have seen the euro's look way way way to many times. And since there is no blocking at all. This run already has the cold being eradicated quickly. the first system goes so far North the cold gets tucked under it and sent East. So there is nothing in the way when the return flow starts. the CF doesn't even clear the Tennessee Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 12Z Euro is great for our region. Cool 850s and an energized jet aimed right at us. Lots of potential with this set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 the euro IMO is way more realistic at 12z than the other two models. SW bias and all. I have seen the euro's look way way way to many times. And since there is no blocking at all. This run already has the cold being eradicated quickly. the first system goes so far North the cold gets tucked under it and sent East. So there is nothing in the way when the return flow starts. the CF doesn't even clear the Tennessee Valley. Be careful with Arctic airmasses, they are dense and it's colder at the surface. You have to watch out for overrunning precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Be careful with Arctic airmasses, they are dense and it's colder at the surface. You have to watch out for overrunning precip. I agree. But the Euro is so slow with the 2nd round of energy or it's a third round. I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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