Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion

[MidwestChaser]

The west scores, and we torch...

December off to a very, very bad start. Almost seems imminent at this point.

 

Hmm funny. I didn't know you had a time machine.

[A-L-E-K]

Dec really isn't that far away, it looks pretty likely to at least start warmish

[The_Global_Warmer]

Dec really isn't that far away, it looks pretty likely to at least start warmish

GFS ensemble mean is showing a 2-3SD AO+ to start December. Pretty much every run continues to show a more positive AO.

Then a couple days ago it started this -PNA stuff. Now dumping a ton of cold and a vortex off the West coast.

Something is going to have to give to get a system to track far enough South for even you. This pattern is DOA for me because of the -PNA.

What could of been a bleeding cold pattern where the cold air is so dense. Inspire of the big AO+ it pushes the gradient further South and we get systems to drop into Texas before cutting into the lakes.

With that -PNA it will be a Denver to Fargo Special.

[SpartyOn]

GFS ensemble mean is showing a 2-3SD AO+ to start December. Pretty much every run continues to show a more positive AO.

Then a couple days ago it started this -PNA stuff. Now dumping a ton of cold and a vortex off the West coast.

Something is going to have to give to get a system to track far enough South for even you. This pattern is DOA for me because of the -PNA.

What could of been a bleeding cold pattern where the cold air is so dense. Inspire of the big AO+ it pushes the gradient further South and we get systems to drop into Texas before cutting into the lakes.

With that -PNA it will be a Denver to Fargo Special.

But you can not rule out Colorado lows either. This is why this pattern isnt all that bad for those north of I 80. Most of us would much rather have a western trough over deep entrentched dry arctic air.

[The_Global_Warmer]

But you can not rule out Colorado lows either. This is why this pattern isnt all that bad for those north of I 80. Most of us would much rather have a western trough over deep entrentched dry arctic air.

If we can get a Couple fast movers to beat down the SE ridge. We can get quick hitters. Lots of ice and snow. Snow for i80, ice for i70.

Ice is a trademark of AO+ down here.

[wisconsinwx]

If we can get a Couple fast movers to beat down the SE ridge. We can get quick hitters. Lots of ice and snow. Snow for i80, ice for i70.

Ice is a trademark of AO+ down here.

 

Which tends to mean snow chances for the NW part of the subforum.  Wisconsin and Iowa, probably Minnesota will do pretty well in this pattern if we can get some big storms.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Which tends to mean snow chances for the NW part of the subforum.  Wisconsin and Iowa, probably Minnesota will do pretty well in this pattern if we can get some big storms.

 

 

Even folks as far East as Detroit and Northern Ohio(exp NW) Ohio can benefit.  Typically storm tracks that screw St. Louis also screw Indy and Detroit. 

 

I didn't believe jonger talking about an AO not mattering for him much.  So I ran the numbers going back to 1980 every which way and the average snowfall for Detroit always ended up around 38-40 inches. 

 

The only caveat I would throw on that is the median was much lower in the 32-34" range because of 07-08 and 08-09.

 

So I would say that a positive AO probably stacks the odds a bit higher for a less than normal snow fall winter than the the averages would show.

 

But it's only a little bit.

 

In St. Louis.  The difference is tremendous.  Almost every sub 10" winter here is a positive AO.  Sometimes to much blocking can be bad in terms of sow fall.  Like the record year of 09-10 we actually only had 14.5".  But it snowed 34 times.  Just so many flurries and light snow events over and over.  those weak clippers giving flurries or light snow every 24-36 hours for 2 weeks at a time. 

 

 

I prefer having a train of Southern vorts.  open waves, positively tilted flying from California to DC.  Moisture rich but are fast and weak enough to not over amplify.  And reinforce snow cover which helps keeps the cold locked up. 

[JoMo]

And a different look on the 12z Euro.... Lots of energy dropping into the west so it's going to take some time to sort all this out probably.

[Jonger]

Even folks as far East as Detroit and Northern Ohio(exp NW) Ohio can benefit.  Typically storm tracks that screw St. Louis also screw Indy and Detroit. 

 

I didn't believe jonger talking about an AO not mattering for him much.  So I ran the numbers going back to 1980 every which way and the average snowfall for Detroit always ended up around 38-40 inches. 

 

The only caveat I would throw on that is the median was much lower in the 32-34" range because of 07-08 and 08-09.

 

So I would say that a positive AO probably stacks the odds a bit higher for a less than normal snow fall winter than the the averages would show.

 

But it's only a little bit.

 

In St. Louis.  The difference is tremendous.  Almost every sub 10" winter here is a positive AO.  Sometimes to much blocking can be bad in terms of sow fall.  Like the record year of 09-10 we actually only had 14.5".  But it snowed 34 times.  Just so many flurries and light snow events over and over.  those weak clippers giving flurries or light snow every 24-36 hours for 2 weeks at a time. 

 

 

I prefer having a train of Southern vorts.  open waves, positively tilted flying from California to DC.  Moisture rich but are fast and weak enough to not over amplify.  And reinforce snow cover which helps keeps the cold locked up. 

 

I don't mind a extreme negative AO either, but only after we get snow on the ground... If the AO is too negative, we end up with high temps in the single digits and bone dry conditions, personally... cold without snow is worthless.

[Hoosier]

A warmup in early December seems pretty much unavoidable.  I think it's more a question of the magnitude/duration.

[Jonger]

Dec really isn't that far away, it looks pretty likely to at least start warmish

 

The next 2 week are all below normal EXCEPT Dec 3-4-5th. That low looks pretty likely to pass to our NW and pump the warmth ahead of it. The UP looks to get clocked... Can't say that upsets me.

 

The front comes through on the 5th and drops us back to below normal.

[wishforsnow]

The next 2 week are all below normal EXCEPT Dec 3-4-5th. That low looks pretty likely to pass to our NW and pump the warmth ahead of it. The UP looks to get clocked... Can't say that upsets me.

 

The front comes through on the 5th and drops us back to below normal.

Hope we get a good system snow. Easier to pack it in the front yard where I have to run the snow blower all winter. The lake effect snow is harder to pack. I like to get a few inches of system snow, pack it down good, and then get real cold to set it up like cement. 

[Snowstorms]

GFS ensemble mean is showing a 2-3SD AO+ to start December. Pretty much every run continues to show a more positive AO.

Then a couple days ago it started this -PNA stuff. Now dumping a ton of cold and a vortex off the West coast.

Something is going to have to give to get a system to track far enough South for even you. This pattern is DOA for me because of the -PNA.

What could of been a bleeding cold pattern where the cold air is so dense. Inspire of the big AO+ it pushes the gradient further South and we get systems to drop into Texas before cutting into the lakes.

With that -PNA it will be a Denver to Fargo Special.

 

Believe it or not, a neutral AO to slightly positive is better for snowfall than a -AO. As the other posters have mentioned a -AO coupled with a -NAO often creates deep troughs in the East, and therefore preventing any storms from cutting through the region or even forming. Thats not to say storms cant form during a -AO/NAO however.

 

A -PNA isnt half bad for our region. During a +PNA, troughs usually dig to far south and the storm track also moves along in that path, so we stay high dry. 

 

Both Dec 2007/2008 had a gradient pattern. During a gradient pattern both air masses collide and the SE Ridge, depending on the strength, can help keep storms more inland giving us more snowfall. Its good to keep Western and Northern Canada cold. As long as the EPO stays negative the effects of the +AO/NAO will be overwhelmed by the Pacific pattern. All we need is a perfect set-up like we had in 07 and 08, which is quite possible. The EPO should help keep the effects of the SE ridge confined to the southern regions. A gradient pattern can help produce large storms sometimes, ex. Dec 15-18 2007. 

 

With the active storm track shown on the models, things will get really interesting. Lets see.

 

If you have been following my posts, I said way back in late October, that late November was going to wind up colder than normal in the East and it should continue through the first half of December. This pattern as i said would lead to a 2 week wintry period in December with a pattern change around the second half of December. 

[A-L-E-K]

wild look

 

[Stebo]

wild look

 

GFS looks too zonal across the East and Atlantic, especially considering how blocky the pattern looks in the Pacific, I would probably lean toward the Euro at this junction.

[Geos]

This is intense looking cold.

 

[Stebo]

This is intense looking cold.

 

That is intense looking boredom if you ask me.

[Geos]

That is intense looking boredom if you ask me.

 

Well yeah it could be. Would like to see warm anomalies further NW into the TN Valley at least.

[Minnesota Meso]

Which tends to mean snow chances for the NW part of the subforum.  Wisconsin and Iowa, probably Minnesota will do pretty well in this pattern if we can get some big storms.

 

Just my amateur thoughts here.  With the strong -EPO that we are currently in, coupled with a developing -PNA  for the 1st week of Dec, I believe the baroclinic zone may set south and east of us, yes we could do well with few clipper system as snow fall ratios could be higher.  But as troughs dig into the southwest we may get to much cold air up here for a whopper of a winter storm.  Therefore my current thinking for the 1st half of December with any blockbuster winter storms, the effected areas will near a line from St Louis to Des Moines to Milwaukee and points south and east from there.  IMO the far Northwest areas of this sub forum will not be favored, however the rest of the area may see a substantial winter event. 

 

Edit: maybe this should be moved to the new Dec. disco.

[TheWeatherPimp]

If you haven't seen the models and the pattern for next week, it's ominous looking when it comes to bitterly cold air impacting much of the Country. Massive arctic outbreak on the way by the middle to the end of next week. 

[Stebo]

If you haven't seen the models and the pattern for next week, it's ominous looking when it comes to bitterly cold air impacting much of the Country. Massive arctic outbreak on the way by the middle to the end of next week. 

Yeah looking around 9-12 days out there could be a pretty strong Arctic invasion, most certainly the coldest air of the season thus far and probably some of the coldest air we have seen in December in several years if things hold close to what the models are showing right now.

[harrisale]

Yeah looking around 9-12 days out there could be a pretty strong Arctic invasion, most certainly the coldest air of the season thus far and probably some of the coldest air we have seen in December in several years if things hold close to what the models are showing right now.

 

240 on the GFS indicates some serious cold dipping south.

 

[Jonger]

I would give anything for Dec 2000...

Wasn't that the coldest December of all time.

[RogueWaves]

What Dec 2000 did around the Midwest:

[RogueWaves]

More Maps:

 

 

[DAFF]

I think the last few weeks gives a great indication of the winter ahead. While temperatures have been up and down with the passing cold fronts the general long term trend is cold. I can see a few days of unusual warmth with approaching systems but the true cold of winter hasn't hit us yet. I won't be long before these major systems of rain turn the corner to the colder snow variety.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Yeah looking around 9-12 days out there could be a pretty strong Arctic invasion, most certainly the coldest air of the season thus far and probably some of the coldest air we have seen in December in several years if things hold close to what the models are showing right now.

JB has been going on about this upcoming arctic shot on his twitter account for a number of days now - says the pattern is similar to that of December 1983.

[Snowstorms]

JB has been going on about this upcoming arctic shot on his twitter account for a number of days now - says the pattern is similar to that of December 1983.

 

It looks similar to 2008/2007/1970/1975 moreso than 1983. Back in 2008 we had a nice cold outbreak out West as well for a 2 week period. Areas in the PNW including Vancouver got tremendous amounts of snow, leading to the first White Christmas nationwide in Canada since 1970 i believe. 

 

The models are very confused on the forces acting in the Tropical, there all over the place with the MJO. Overall, the pattern looks similar to what had occurred in 2008. If the EPO continues its negative regime, we should continue seeing Canada getting pooled with cold Arctic Air despite a +AO. The cooler stratosphere should prevent the AO from going negative, and if it does, it shouldn't be persistent. Luckily models do show the PV on our side of the globe. 

 

The STJ may come into play sometimes, depending how the MJO/AAM behave. A train of storms may pound the Pacific NW which could make there way across the East thereafter.. Where they will track and precip type is the question. It depends how well the EPO can confide the effects of the SE Ridge more towards the south. 

 

The storms that interest me are around Dec 2-4 and another potential around Dec 6-10 as the Pacific wave train of storms continues. Lets see. I could see some nice clippers developing in the first 10 ten days of December with a strong Polar Jet. The first one this weekend gives SSC some nice snow

[JoMo]

Models have been dropping the bottom out on the -EPO.... Looks to drop to -5 to -6 (Euro/GFS/Ensembles) by around Dec 5th. 

[Stebo]

JB has been going on about this upcoming arctic shot on his twitter account for a number of days now - says the pattern is similar to that of December 1983.

 

Maybe not a similar pattern per say, but it could potentially be the coldest air this early in the season since at least 2000 maybe as far back as 1983.  The key to the magnitude of the outbreak will be if we can get a snow pack down with the systems between now and then.