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Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm

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GFS and Euro indicating another trough dives in in about 5-6 days time. Both models have a storm off the coast, north of NY, could bring YYZ a few inches in its earlier/more westerly stages. Trough doesn't really dig deep enough and doesn't intensify the low until its too far west to affect much of the subforum. First decent looking winter system though.


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GFS and Euro indicating another trough dives in in about 5-6 days time. Both models have a storm off the coast, north of NY, could bring YYZ a few inches in its earlier/more westerly stages. Trough doesn't really dig deep enough and doesn't intensify the low until its too far west to affect much of the subforum. First decent looking winter system though.

 

 

Canadian showing 5 cm snow this upcoming weekend and a 20 cm dump on day 10. GFS showing a couples inches of snow this weekend, also.   :weenie:  :lmao:

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The Iowa-Michigan game on Saturday looks to be very cold.  The latest Euro has 20+ mph wind with the temp falling into the teens by mid afternoon.  If the Euro is right about the snow cover, we could hit zero Sunday morning.

 

The neighbor's oak tree is still full of leaves.  I need those things to fall so I can cover some plants before the real snow and cold arrives.

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The Iowa-Michigan game on Saturday looks to be very cold.  The latest Euro has 20+ mph wind with the temp falling into the teens by mid afternoon.  If the Euro is right about the snow cover, we could hit zero Sunday morning.

 

The neighbor's oak tree is still full of leaves.  I need those things to fall so I can cover some plants before the real snow and cold arrives.

 

Well some Oak trees keep their leaves all winter. If its the type of Oak that does loose its leaves in the Autumn, then I'd say something is wrong with it given the late date. 

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12z Euro showed another active western troughing pattern developing in around a week, which is an idea shared by some of the GEFS members. Most of the guidance has the PNA dropping into negative territory and the AO/NAO turning positive/hovering around neutral based on the latest progs around this time, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see something come out of this in the first/second week of December.

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12z Euro showed another active western troughing pattern developing in around a week, which is an idea shared by some of the GEFS members. Most of the guidance has the PNA dropping into negative territory and the AO/NAO turning positive/hovering around neutral based on the latest progs around this time, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see something come out of this in the first/second week of December.

 

The storm progged for mid to late part of the following week (first week of December) looks like a potential major one, and might be the opportunity many of us are looking for in terms of a big early-season storm.  Just fast forward a week and hopefully we are going to be tracking a major one.

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Well some Oak trees keep their leaves all winter. If its the type of Oak that does loose its leaves in the Autumn, then I'd say something is wrong with it given the late date. 

This oak tree drops its leaves, but the September heat and late freeze delayed it.  Despite the very cold weather, I was outside for a couple hours today collecting leaves.  The oak tree is dumping them like crazy now.

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Been working on equipment all weekend, might have to use it soon with the looks of the models. I really like the above post, bulls eye over our house.

 

Its rain in SW Ontario and SE Michigan, but like I ever care about MBY anyhow.  :sled:

 

Good chance it ends up 500 miles east or west of where its currently shown.

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Let's get it cranking...

 

I have been paying attention to this one as well.

it seems the models have been spitting bits and pieces out of the plains at different times and different strengths....but all seem to be centered around that 12/5 to 12/6 time range.....certainly worth watching the trend over the next few days into gobble gobble weekend

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The west scores, and we torch...

msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%

December off to a very, very bad start. Almost seems imminent at this point.

 

Yet the GFS looks totally different.  Strange how it changed from a few days ago.  I'm not ready to give into Mr. Torch yet.  Looks like a SE Ridge type of pattern, but I'm not necessarily buying that strong of a ridge.

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The west scores, and we torch...

msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%

December off to a very, very bad start. Almost seems imminent at this point.

 

 

For your backyard it could be. I don't know to be honest but for most others it is a HUGE improvement over what we have now unless you like cold and dry. Cold and dry does zero for me.

 

This has shades of Dec 2008 and 1978 and both ended up being pretty decent winters in these parts especially 08-09. Thus yeah i'll take it.

 

One more thing. People in these parts who like snow need to be careful where the AO is concerned. More often then not ( alot more around here atleast ) the better winters for snow come at the hands of a +AO not -AO. Yes the -AO can be great for cold but more times then not it leaves most DRY with the exception being those who live on the eastern edge of the region.

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True, Harry, looking at that Euro map, it would take much of a shift in that trof to become a primer for inland runner action.. Looking at the Synoptics, the Upper Midwest looks to have a decent shot at a storm Dec 3rd-8th and then again right before Christmas..

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True, Harry, looking at that Euro map, it would take much of a shift in that trof to become a primer for inland runner action.. Looking at the Synoptics, the Upper Midwest looks to have a decent shot at a storm Dec 3rd-8th and then again right before Christmas..

 

The analogs for the next 8-14 days are pretty decent..

 

post-90-0-22637300-1385463919_thumb.gif

 

I am sure the 12-14-08 time period rings a bell for a few. 

 

 

So yeah this is MUCH better.. Assuming it all plays out ofcourse.

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