Minnesota Meso Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Decided to put these maps here instead of the severe thread, this could get very explosive as it moves to the northern lakes area. hotlinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 One more map 6 hours later: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 If someone wants to start a thread for the weekend storm for general storm discussion, go ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Models have really backed off with the cold air plunge behind the Sunday storm. The latest Euro now has the coldest day in the upper 30s here, well above what we just got from the last cold blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 GFS and Euro indicating another trough dives in in about 5-6 days time. Both models have a storm off the coast, north of NY, could bring YYZ a few inches in its earlier/more westerly stages. Trough doesn't really dig deep enough and doesn't intensify the low until its too far west to affect much of the subforum. First decent looking winter system though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 GFS and Euro indicating another trough dives in in about 5-6 days time. Both models have a storm off the coast, north of NY, could bring YYZ a few inches in its earlier/more westerly stages. Trough doesn't really dig deep enough and doesn't intensify the low until its too far west to affect much of the subforum. First decent looking winter system though. Canadian showing 5 cm snow this upcoming weekend and a 20 cm dump on day 10. GFS showing a couples inches of snow this weekend, also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 EURO showing 2-6" across southern WI, extreme N IL and most of IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 The Iowa-Michigan game on Saturday looks to be very cold. The latest Euro has 20+ mph wind with the temp falling into the teens by mid afternoon. If the Euro is right about the snow cover, we could hit zero Sunday morning. The neighbor's oak tree is still full of leaves. I need those things to fall so I can cover some plants before the real snow and cold arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 The Iowa-Michigan game on Saturday looks to be very cold. The latest Euro has 20+ mph wind with the temp falling into the teens by mid afternoon. If the Euro is right about the snow cover, we could hit zero Sunday morning. The neighbor's oak tree is still full of leaves. I need those things to fall so I can cover some plants before the real snow and cold arrives. Well some Oak trees keep their leaves all winter. If its the type of Oak that does loose its leaves in the Autumn, then I'd say something is wrong with it given the late date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Big LES coming this weekend.... All the favored NW spots should get pounded. Looks like the front swings through on Saturday and a clipper rides down the front and should fire up the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 12z Euro showed another active western troughing pattern developing in around a week, which is an idea shared by some of the GEFS members. Most of the guidance has the PNA dropping into negative territory and the AO/NAO turning positive/hovering around neutral based on the latest progs around this time, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see something come out of this in the first/second week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 12z Euro showed another active western troughing pattern developing in around a week, which is an idea shared by some of the GEFS members. Most of the guidance has the PNA dropping into negative territory and the AO/NAO turning positive/hovering around neutral based on the latest progs around this time, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see something come out of this in the first/second week of December. The storm progged for mid to late part of the following week (first week of December) looks like a potential major one, and might be the opportunity many of us are looking for in terms of a big early-season storm. Just fast forward a week and hopefully we are going to be tracking a major one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Some amazing cold being shown for the PNW. Unheard of for that region. Early 1970s anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Well some Oak trees keep their leaves all winter. If its the type of Oak that does loose its leaves in the Autumn, then I'd say something is wrong with it given the late date. This oak tree drops its leaves, but the September heat and late freeze delayed it. Despite the very cold weather, I was outside for a couple hours today collecting leaves. The oak tree is dumping them like crazy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Its pretty far out, but there is a nice storm for the UP and Wisconsin 9 days out. That western trough creates a quasi zonal flow, but should be colder than normal throughout the sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Some amazing cold being shown for the PNW. Unheard of for that region. Early 1970s anyone? Yeah I noticed up to -15° departures next week in WA on the EURO control run! About -6°- -12° here in the sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Continent wide trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 do you guys have a weenie thread? this is even one of the better LR model set ups I have seen in awhile....(for MBY) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Been working on equipment all weekend, might have to use it soon with the looks of the models. I really like the above post, bulls eye over our house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 do you guys have a weenie thread? this is even one of the better LR model set ups I have seen in awhile....(for MBY) USA_PRMSL_msl_252.gif Let's get it cranking... I have been paying attention to this one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Been working on equipment all weekend, might have to use it soon with the looks of the models. I really like the above post, bulls eye over our house. Its rain in SW Ontario and SE Michigan, but like I ever care about MBY anyhow. Good chance it ends up 500 miles east or west of where its currently shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Let's get it cranking... I have been paying attention to this one as well. it seems the models have been spitting bits and pieces out of the plains at different times and different strengths....but all seem to be centered around that 12/5 to 12/6 time range.....certainly worth watching the trend over the next few days into gobble gobble weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 How did January 2009 shape up for this subforum? Looks like the PNW gets a December 2008 repeat. Good for them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 How did January 2009 shape up for this subforum? Looks like the PNW gets a December 2008 repeat. Good for them! January 2009 was a fantastic month here, bitter cold, lots of snow, ans constant deep snowpack. December 2008 was good as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 The west scores, and we torch...December off to a very, very bad start. Almost seems imminent at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 The west scores, and we torch... December off to a very, very bad start. Almost seems imminent at this point. Yet the GFS looks totally different. Strange how it changed from a few days ago. I'm not ready to give into Mr. Torch yet. Looks like a SE Ridge type of pattern, but I'm not necessarily buying that strong of a ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 The west scores, and we torch... December off to a very, very bad start. Almost seems imminent at this point. For your backyard it could be. I don't know to be honest but for most others it is a HUGE improvement over what we have now unless you like cold and dry. Cold and dry does zero for me. This has shades of Dec 2008 and 1978 and both ended up being pretty decent winters in these parts especially 08-09. Thus yeah i'll take it. One more thing. People in these parts who like snow need to be careful where the AO is concerned. More often then not ( alot more around here atleast ) the better winters for snow come at the hands of a +AO not -AO. Yes the -AO can be great for cold but more times then not it leaves most DRY with the exception being those who live on the eastern edge of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 True, Harry, looking at that Euro map, it would take much of a shift in that trof to become a primer for inland runner action.. Looking at the Synoptics, the Upper Midwest looks to have a decent shot at a storm Dec 3rd-8th and then again right before Christmas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 True, Harry, looking at that Euro map, it would take much of a shift in that trof to become a primer for inland runner action.. Looking at the Synoptics, the Upper Midwest looks to have a decent shot at a storm Dec 3rd-8th and then again right before Christmas.. The analogs for the next 8-14 days are pretty decent.. I am sure the 12-14-08 time period rings a bell for a few. So yeah this is MUCH better.. Assuming it all plays out ofcourse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 The west scores, and we torch... December off to a very, very bad start. Almost seems imminent at this point. I always hate that map color set, looks way warmer than reality. I will have to roll the 6s gfs, but the 00z looked good last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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