Jonger Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 I used to think the same thing, but then I actually looked at the data (for Detroit) and its really a crapshoot. Measurable snow is rare, as a trace of snow is very common. Of the 133 years on record (not counting 2013 as it isnt complete), only 65 had zero snow, which is slightly less than half. However...just 15 of the 133 Octobers saw measurable snow. That means that the past 133 Octobers have shown us that Detroit has a 51% chance of seeing a few flakes, but only an 11% chance of seeing measurable snow. Of the 15 Octobers that saw measurable snow, 10 of the winters ended up being snowier than normal and 5 saw below normal snow. Patterns will reset and more variables than imaginable will determine the winter. The November, December pattern might not be the January, February pattern either..... Lets just hope for a normal December and go from there.... Heres how 2000-2010 were about -1.0 to 0.0 over the sub-forum... and then the dreaded 2011-2012 Decembers. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Just saw some of that snow footage from Moline. Congrats on the early season white stuff. Although my experience has been that October snow is usually not a sign of positive things to come. Good to see you ssc! jbcmh81 posted some interesting stats in the Lets Talk Winter thread for Columbus concerning this subject. Apparently, measurable October snows bode well for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 24, 2013 Author Share Posted October 24, 2013 GRR's graphic for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 We've had a couple rounds of the lake effect tonight with small and brief accumulations on elevated surfaces. Fun to see the snows again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 I used to think the same thing, but then I actually looked at the data (for Detroit) and its really a crapshoot. Measurable snow is rare, as a trace of snow is very common. Of the 133 years on record (not counting 2013 as it isnt complete), only 65 had zero snow, which is slightly less than half. However...just 15 of the 133 Octobers saw measurable snow. That means that the past 133 Octobers have shown us that Detroit has a 51% chance of seeing a few flakes, but only an 11% chance of seeing measurable snow. Of the 15 Octobers that saw measurable snow, 10 of the winters ended up being snowier than normal and 5 saw below normal snow. Nice of you to crunch the numbers. My musings about snow in October = cruddy winter are based just off my memory of recent years gone by (2001, 2006). 2010 saw some measurable snow (0.1") at Pearson in October for the first time in a long time and the following winter was pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Good to see you ssc! jbcmh81 posted some interesting stats in the Lets Talk Winter thread for Columbus concerning this subject. Apparently, measurable October snows bode well for that area. Nice to see you too IWXwx. Going to be the first time in 8 years I'm not going to get to share in the excitement of a MW/GL winter with you guys. Like I wrote to Josh, the whole October snow thing being bad is just my flawed recollection. There is a bit of correlation between wet Octobers and crappy winters up in Toronto, at least over the last 20 years, but I have no idea about the cause of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Nice to see you too IWXwx. Going to be the first time in 8 years I'm not going to get to share in the excitement of a MW/GL winter with you guys. Like I wrote to Josh, the whole October snow thing being bad is just my flawed recollection. There is a bit of correlation between wet Octobers and crappy winters up in Toronto, at least over the last 20 years, but I have no idea about the cause of that. I wonder if part of it is because El Nino years tend to have cold Octobers, therefore having a better chance at October snow but also having a better chance at below average winter snow at least in the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Nice surprise when I woke up this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Lake effect has been pretty relentless the past 5 or 6 days. Gaylord has over 7" of snow for the month of October already. Between 3-4" of liquid the past 7 days in this part of Antrim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 24, 2013 Author Share Posted October 24, 2013 Lake effect has been pretty relentless the past 5 or 6 days. Gaylord has over 7" of snow for the month of October already. Between 3-4" of liquid the past 7 days in this part of Antrim. So you're seeing more of a mix than anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 So you're seeing more of a mix than anything?Had snow/graupel mix, sometimes all snow at night... maybe 2" of snow the past few days ( a solid inch yesterday morning). Graupel has been the primary precip with very little actual rain for 2 days.There's been some real hvy snow totals in Ostego, Kalkaska, and eastern Antrim counties. Just too close to the coast to see all snow here... Edit: looks like plain old rain and 39 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Got a nice sleet/graupel shower right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 So you're seeing more of a mix than anything?Had snow/graupel mix, sometimes all snow at night... maybe 2" of snow the past few days ( a solid inch yesterday morning). Graupel has been the primary precip with very little actual rain for 2 days. There's been some real hvy snow totals in Ostego, Kalkaska, and eastern Antrim counties. Just too close to the coast to see all snow here... Edit: looks like plain old rain and 39 now Kalkaska eh? got any totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 24, 2013 Author Share Posted October 24, 2013 Had snow/graupel mix, sometimes all snow at night... maybe 2" of snow the past few days ( a solid inch yesterday morning). Graupel has been the primary precip with very little actual rain for 2 days. There's been some real hvy snow totals in Ostego, Kalkaska, and eastern Antrim counties. Just too close to the coast to see all snow here... Edit: looks like plain old rain and 39 now 2-3 weeks and I bet the lake will cool off enough to really cut down on the mixing where you are at. Looks like downtown Gaylord still has some snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Heavy snow continues on Cleveland's east side this afternoon...I'm "stuck" at school in SE Ohio for this and am sort of jealous. There was a nice swath of 3-5" of accumulations there by this morning and many of those same areas have seen heavy snow continue all through the day. Traffic cams show slushy interstates still despite it being the middle of the afternoon beneath the snow band. Over 45,000 customers lost power due to the weight of the snow breaking limbs and trees this morning and thunder and lightning has almost been constant with the snow band since last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Kalkaska eh? got any totals?nothing official, but on the news this morning I saw pics of 3-4" and certainly areas around there have 3 day totals in excess of 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Rain mixed with snow at times yesterday and today here at Elkhart although nothing like the photos with grass covered whiteness. But I was driving home shortly after midnight this early morning and nice fat snowflakes were falling and sure looked pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/ping/display/ Lotta mixed/frozen stuff in OH/IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 24, 2013 Author Share Posted October 24, 2013 CLE reporting thunder with -SN now. or should I say, "was". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Like weatherbo, we have had some wet snow. Our 1.0 - 1.5 inches from yesterday melted down to 0.56" of liquid by yesterday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.