Chicago Storm Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Maybe next yr for the falcons and naders close to home. Congrats on the flurries. Don't need naders close to home when I can chase them elsewhere. You're headed in the right direction with the Falcons... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Sure about that? I've got a lot of good snow falling here at McDonald/Randall. (null) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Thanks for bumping my good call. Tell that to Cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 You're falling off. You're rationalizing your behind off thinking your calls are nearly always right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Sure about that? I've got a lot of good snow falling here at McDonald/Randall. (null) Sitting in the rain. But I am over closer to Bartlett Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Tell that to Cyclone. Most of the sub-forum hasn't seen anything interesting for the past week...and nothing interesting is on the way until mid-next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 You're rationalizing your behind off thinking your calls are nearly always right. Naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Sitting in the rain. But I am over closer to Bartlett It's rain here now to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 It's odd having a rain/snow event and not being furious... Granted they are easier to enjoy I. October than in January.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Liking the ILN AFD. I know it won't amount to much but it would still be nice to see all snow for a little bit. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH428 PM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEYTONIGHT...BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION...MIXING WITH SNOW IN SOMELOCATIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILLMOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ANDOCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE STARTOF THE WEEKEND.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...A COMPLICATED FORECAST SCENARIO HAS SET UP FOR TONIGHT...WITHSEVERAL CHALLENGES INVOLVING TIMING...TEMPERATURE...ANDPRECIPITATION TYPE. THE OVERALL SCENARIO IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT (ASIT SHOULD BE WITHIN A DAY)...BUT UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE A FEW KEYDIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS.SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVINGEAST...ENTERING THE STATE OF ILLINOIS NNW OF ST LOUIS. THE SURFACELOW IS RIDING JUST AHEAD OF THE AXIS OF A WELL-DEFINEDSHORTWAVE...WHICH IS ALSO MOVING EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THESURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ESE...PASSING VERY CLOSE TOCINCINNATI...MOVING INTO KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA. THE LOW WILLEVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO A BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THEEAST COAST.THE FIRST KEY TO THE FORECAST IS TIMING. AS A GENERAL RULE FOR THEMODEL RUNS TODAY...THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION THE MODEL...THE SLOWERTHE PROGRESSION OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ONTHE FAST SIDE OF THE SOLUTIONS...ENDING THE MAJORITY OFPRECIPITATION IN THE ILN CWA BY 12Z. THE ARW/NMM RUNS AND NAM12ARE SLOWER...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION STILL IMPACTINGTHE AREA AT DAYBREAK. IN REALITY...THE CURRENT POSITION OF THESURFACE LOW INDICATES A SCENARIO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWOEXTREMES.JUST NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW...AN AXIS OF 850MB CONVERGENCEWILL COMBINE WITH LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE TO GENERATE AN AREA OFSTEADY PRECIPITATION. THE GENERAL TRACK OF THE BEST FORCING IS INGOOD AGREEMENT...SANS THE WRF-ARW (A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH) AND THERAP (A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH). QPF AMOUNTS OF A FEW TENTHS OF ANINCH LOOK POSSIBLE ALONG THIS AXIS...STRETCHING FROM CENTRALINDIANA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN OHIO. CATEGORICAL POPS WERE REQUIREDTHROUGH THIS AREA...WITH ONLY THE SLIGHT TIMING CONCERNSPREVENTING 100-POPS AND EVEN GREATER DETAIL FROM BEING USED.BETWEEN THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND THE EXTRA PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHINDTHE SURFACE LOW...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THELOWER-TO-MID 30S (NORTHWEST CWA) TO AROUND 40 (SOUTHERN CWA)TONIGHT. IT HAS BECOME EVIDENT THAT THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN...WITH (FORCERTAIN LOCATIONS) SNOW LIKELY EVEN BECOMING THE DOMINANTPRECIPITATION TYPE FOR A COUPLE HOURS NEAR DAYBREAK. THE CRUX OFTHIS FORECAST IS THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESETEMPERATURES...JUXTAPOSED WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA ARE LIKELY TOEXPERIENCE A BIT OF WET SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN. HOWEVER...THEREWILL BE A WINDOW FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN WHICH AN AXIS FROM RICHMONDIN TO XENIA OH APPEARS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THEPRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE...WHILE MODERATE PRECIPITATIONINTENSITY IS STILL OCCURRING. THIS IS WHERE SOME OF THE SUBTLEDIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS CAN HAVE A BIG IMPACT. THEHIGHER-RESOLUTION MODELS ALLOW FOR AN AREA OF DYNAMIC COOLINGOCCURRING WITH THE PRECIPITATION...A LEGITIMATE POSSIBILITY (ONEUNTOUCHED BY THE COARSER MODELS) THAT WOULD INCREASE CHANCES FORSNOW. GROUND TEMPS ARE QUITE WARM (MID TO UPPER 40S) AND IT ISVERY UNLIKELY THAT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE FELT ON PAVEMENT.HOWEVER...WET ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASS OR RAISED SURFACES WILL BEPOSSIBLE IN THIS CORRIDOR...AND THE FORECAST GRIDS WILL ALLOW FORSEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 0.4" at Moline today ties for the 9th snowiest October on record (records back to the late 1800s) so it gives some idea of how unusual it is to get sticking snow this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 As mentioned earlier, ORD ended up with a T of snow. This tied the record for the date of a T (1937). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Fun day. Unfortunately I was stuck at work all day, but got to watch it all unfold. Snow started around 8, and then began to mix with rain. Around 10 the mix changed back over to all snow and became moderate. Big fat flakes fell for quite awhile, and that helped to establish a slushy base. Snow quickly began to accumulate and stuck to everything. Guessing about 2" piled up where I was on the northeast side of the QC. For a time the snow was even sticking to pavement. Heaviest snow was done by around 1, with only light snow and even light rain again the rest of the afternoon. Here's a few pics from home a bit ago. There's been some melting, so I'm not sure how much we got. Had the time lapse running all day, so will check that a little later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 nice pics cyclone maybe jonger was on to something my zone'cast: TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE EVENING. .WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS. TOTAL DAYTIME SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS. TOTAL NIGHTTIME SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 4 INCHES. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. .THURSDAY...FREQUENT RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. .THURSDAY NIGHT...FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 22, 2013 Author Share Posted October 22, 2013 Great pics Cyclone! Dry air battle took place here. I did venture into Mc Henry County quite a ways to see if I could pick up some flurries, but by the time I got to Woodstock the precipitation shield shrunk. Just low clouds and upper 30s out that way. Glad the system and thread didn't end up being a dud. I knew it was a bit risky given it was October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Time lapse of the whole event here. The tree in the middle really starts to sag as the snow accumulates. It then springs back up later in the vid as the snow melts. It surprised me how quickly the snow melted off the trees once the snow quit. The leaves must still be radiating out some warmth. EDIT: Removed the vid. Replaced it with the better one in the post below... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Removed the vid I posted earlier. This one's much better. Sped up the time lapse quite a bit more. You can really see how the trees sagged, and then sprung back up in this one. Make sure to watch it on full screen. The smaller viewing window sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 34 with light rain in LAF. They gotta be close to changing over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 23, 2013 Author Share Posted October 23, 2013 Was fun watching the way the tree in your backyard Cyclone, moved up and down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 34 with light rain in LAF. They gotta be close to changing over. Looks to be a tad to mild from 900mb on down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Was fun watching the way the tree in your backyard Cyclone, moved up and down! Thanks man. I've been addicted to doing time lapses for the last year or two. It's also a good way to visually summarize an event for you guys on the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Looks to be a tad to mild from 900mb on down. Ahh, oh so close. Unfortunately it looks like the boundary layer warmed up quite a bit before the precip got going. Saw LAF was in the mid 40s earlier this afternoon. Probably needed a little more UVV to cool the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Inch of snow fell and still coming down nicely, 32. Sticking to everything News and radio reporting some slick roads, especially around kalkaska. Eastport, a few miles south of Ellsworth, on the coast even has 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 34 with light rain in LAF. They gotta be close to changing over. We were mixing with wet snow when I stepped out to check after midnight. Not sure if we ever completely changed over but some places not too far away did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 408 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0358 AM SNOW MUNCIE 40.20N 85.39W 10/23/2013 E1.0 INCH DELAWARE IN PUBLIC 1 INCH OF SNOW IN MUNCIE VIA PUBLIC ON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA FACEBOOK PAGE. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 317 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0317 AM SNOW 3 S ALEXANDRIA 40.21N 85.68W 10/23/2013 M1.5 INCH MADISON IN PUBLIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Cyclone great vid and congrats on the snow. You're going to have to post something like that for every event this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Let's see whos right in the end for western DTX ares versus eastern GRR. Ingham county is 10 miles to my west, this is their forecast versus mine. If you looked at DTX you wouldn't think there was a shot at early season snow. 99% likely DTX fails on this forecast for my city. How-Lansing.jpg GRR right.... DTX wrong. Its snowing pretty moderately here at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 23, 2013 Author Share Posted October 23, 2013 LES/R plume getting organized over Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Just saw some of that snow footage from Moline. Congrats on the early season white stuff. Although my experience has been that October snow is usually not a sign of positive things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Just saw some of that snow footage from Moline. Congrats on the early season white stuff. Although my experience has been that October snow is usually not a sign of positive things to come. I used to think the same thing, but then I actually looked at the data (for Detroit) and its really a crapshoot. Measurable snow is rare, as a trace of snow is very common. Of the 133 years on record (not counting 2013 as it isnt complete), only 65 had zero snow, which is slightly less than half. However...just 15 of the 133 Octobers saw measurable snow. That means that the past 133 Octobers have shown us that Detroit has a 51% chance of seeing a few flakes, but only an 11% chance of seeing measurable snow. Of the 15 Octobers that saw measurable snow, 10 of the winters ended up being snowier than normal and 5 saw below normal snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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