Stebo Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Man clown maps, the RAP, the 18z NAM qpf explosion, nothing like winter. I hope this is a good omen for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 21, 2013 Author Share Posted October 21, 2013 That's right I did it. Here's the first 18hr RAP posting of the event lol. snip~ Get the edge of the 30dbz to the border and I be happy! Anyone post this yet... NAM sounding near Elgin at 4pm tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Our buddy the HRRR is dropping 2-3" already by 12z tomorrow north of DSM. Will be interesting to see any totals before the sun comes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 22, 2013 Author Share Posted October 22, 2013 Come just a tad north RAP... Wondering... if there would be any issues with some limbs breaking off tomorrow, especially early and late in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 nice looking band hugging the shore... mostly ice, but some snow mixed in at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 nice looking band hugging the shore... mostly ice, but some snow mixed in at times. 1021132.png Why is your BR in KFT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Why is your BR in KFT?because I like the color scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 22, 2013 Author Share Posted October 22, 2013 A couple SREF plume runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Why is your BR in KFT?because I like the color scale. What the actual **** Sent from my HTCONE using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 because I like the color scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 jesus Christ.... I like the echo top color curve so I applied it to reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 because I like the color scale. I see. You know you can change the scale so you can pick the precip from 0-10dBZ that you're missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 I see. You know you can change the scale so you can pick the precip from 0-10dBZ that you're missing.no, guess I didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 22, 2013 Author Share Posted October 22, 2013 WeatherBo, what's your temperature IYBY? RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 no, guess I didn't. Units: DBZ Step: 10 Color: 0 0 200 255 0 64 128 Color: 10 0 255 200 0 128 100 Color: 20 245 245 0 180 128 0 Color: 30 255 128 0 128 64 0 Color: 40 230 0 0 128 0 0 Color: 50 255 0 255 128 0 128 Color: 60 255 255 255 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 WeatherBo, what's your temperature IYBY? 35 currently Units: DBZ Step: 10 Color: 0 0 200 255 0 64 128 Color: 10 0 255 200 0 128 100 Color: 20 245 245 0 180 128 0 Color: 30 255 128 0 128 64 0 Color: 40 230 0 0 128 0 0 Color: 50 255 0 255 128 0 128 Color: 60 255 255 255 thx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Last several runs of the RAP have trended weaker and a bit farther south with the clipper(for Iowa), and now the 00z NAM is drier and a bit farther south as well. Most models now don't have much more than a tenth or so liquid for CR, so it shouldn't amount to much. Still, it'll be nice to see some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Looks like MFAB for around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 22, 2013 Author Share Posted October 22, 2013 Looks like the actual radar returns are a bit further east than modeled. Maybe ride the northern edge of the green shading. Bit too far back in towards the MO River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 ummm... FINALLY...AM BUMPING UP POPS SOME TUESDAY NIGHT OVER PORTER COUNTY INDIANA AS A VERY IMPRESSIVE LOOKING LAKE EFFECT SET-UP DEVELOPS. LAKE-850MB DELTA-T VALUES >20C...LAKE INDUCED CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG...EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OVER 20KFT...AND IMPRESSIVE LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE ALL POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION AND EVEN POSSIBLE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WILL PROBABLY MEAN LITTLE IF ANY ACCUM NEAR THE SHORE WITH RAIN OR SNOW AS P-TYPE...BUT ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT MOVES INLAND A WAYS SHOULD BE ALL SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. NOT PLANNING TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL WITH EVENING UPDATE...JUST GOING TO PASS CONCERNS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO HANDLE. IZZI bullish to say the least, imo. There should be a nice plume, sure, but I'm pretty skeptical of accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Usually when you get to this point before an event you can make a forecast for amounts that's pretty confident. With the narrow nature of the snow swath, combined with the seasonal factors it's pretty tough. I'm just gonna go with an inch for here and the QC. It's possible more than that will actually fall, but don't think we'll actually accumulate more than an inch or so. Looking forward to whatever happens nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 22, 2013 Author Share Posted October 22, 2013 NAM HIRES initialized too far west and south. Showing the center of the band towards the MO River, which isn't the case. If the snow band comes in a bit northeast of Sioux Falls, Cyclone to MDW should be more center in reality. Good disco by Izzi. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL838 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2013.DISCUSSION...838 PM CDTNO BIG CHANGES PLANNED TO GOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT OR FOR SYSTEMTUESDAY. THE 18Z WRF-NAM DID SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM PLACINGITS SOLUTION ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITHTHE ECMWF/GFS BOTH CONTINUING TO PEG ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OURCWA WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEDRIVEN LARGELY BY FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICCIRCULATION WHICH WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A FAIRLY SHARP CUT OFF TOTHE PRECIP ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. GOING FORECAST IS VERY MUCH IN LINEWITH THE CONSISTENT GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH IS FARTHER SOUTH THANTHE NAM AND WHERE THE GOOD MONEY BET SHOULD BE.P-TYPE FORECAST IS A HAIRY MESS. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENTFOR DAYS NOW IN FORECASTING THE COLUMN TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY VIAEVAPORATION AND ASCENT TO RESULT IN A CHANGE OVER TO WETSNOW...PARTICULARLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FALLS. CERTAINLYCLIMO AND TIME OF DAY WOULDN`T FAVOR A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LETALONE ANY ACCUMULATION...BUT WITH SUCH STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT ANDCONSISTENCY ITS SEEMING MORE AND MORE PLAUSIBLE THAT A CHANGE OVERTO WET SNOW WILL OCCUR. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED TO BEFAIRLY STEEP (>7C/KM) TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH ALSO RAISES THEPOSSIBILITY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EMBEDDEDWITHIN THE PRECIP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER IOWA INTO THEWESTERN HALF OF ILLINOIS WHERE INSTABILITY AND FORCING APPEAR TOBE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE. ANY CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIPWILL ONLY FURTHER HELP COOL THE COLUMN AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OFA SWITCH OVER TO WET SNOW.WHEREEVER (AND IF) SNOW FALLS HARD ENOUGH THERE COULD BE SLUSHYACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. NOT EVENTOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A NARROW BAND OF ACOUPLE INCHES OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF OFTHE CWA...BUT THAT WILL BE MORE OF NOWCAST TYPE SITUATION TUESDAYGIVEN THE LIKELY VERY LIMITED AREAL EXTENT OF SUCH ACCUMULATIONSTAKING PLACE (LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF LESS THAN 30MI WIDE BAND).FINALLY...AM BUMPING UP POPS SOME TUESDAY NIGHT OVER PORTER COUNTYINDIANA AS A VERY IMPRESSIVE LOOKING LAKE EFFECT SET-UP DEVELOPS.LAKE-850MB DELTA-T VALUES >20C...LAKE INDUCED CAPE OVER 1000J/KG...EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OVER 20KFT...AND IMPRESSIVE LAND BREEZECONVERGENCE ZONE ALL POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECTPRECIPITATION AND EVEN POSSIBLE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVELY WARMLAKE WILL PROBABLY MEAN LITTLE IF ANY ACCUM NEAR THE SHORE WITH RAINOR SNOW AS P-TYPE...BUT ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT MOVES INLAND A WAYSSHOULD BE ALL SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. NOT PLANNING TOADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL WITH EVENING UPDATE...JUST GOING TO PASSCONCERNS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO HANDLE.IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 The 00z NAM and some of the latest RAP precip type algorithms keep the precip more in the form of rain tomorrow. The models had been very consistent up until this run, but appear to be crapping out the snow potential at the last minute. Hopefully this is just a bad run, and not a sign of a trend. If so my 1" call for the QC won't even be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdavewi Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Had a nice burst of snow for about 20 minutes earlier, with a nice coating now covering things. Measured just shy of a half inch. Webcam view from the house: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 If the GFS has anything to say about it, the Quad Cities area looks primed for a solid October snowfall. After the last couple of tough years there, it would be nice for Cyclone to see a surprise October snow event. Then again, the GFS is borderline, and the NAM a bit warmer as Cyclone mentioned above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 22, 2013 Author Share Posted October 22, 2013 Awesome G.L. weather! Looks like the ground was cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdavewi Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Awesome G.L. weather! Looks like the ground was cold enough. Thanks! Oh yeah...plenty cold ground. Surface temp now 31, and lots of "insulation" between the grass and the 48+ degree 4" soil temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Had a nice burst of snow for about 20 minutes earlier, with a nice coating now covering things. Measured just shy of a half inch. Webcam view from the house: Nice. What type of camera do you have for this setup? I would like to get a cam set up at some point. Maybe this winter. Even though things don't look quite as good for actual accums here tomorrow, will get the time lapse set up just in case. My grass is actually pretty long at the moment, as I haven't made the last cut of the season. That should hopefully help whatever falls accumulate tomorrow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 22, 2013 Author Share Posted October 22, 2013 GFS followed the NAM. From what's occurring in SD, can pretty much throw out the southern solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdavewi Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Nice. What type of camera do you have for this setup? I would like to get a cam set up at some point. Maybe this winter. Even though things don't look quite as good for actual accums here tomorrow, will get the time lapse set up just in case. My grass is actually pretty long at the moment, as I haven't made the last cut of the season. That should hopefully help whatever falls accumulate tomorrow lol. It's actually an older Toshiba security camera a couple forecasters and I came across when I was down at the NWS office in Blacksburg, VA. I think it's the IK-WBO11A model, and it's been one heck of a camera. Had it outside for its entire life the past 10 years with no problems whatsoever. Does some great night/low-light shots and it completely internet-controllable. Check it out here (really snowing hard as I type this): http://97.83.48.133:9000/user_view_S.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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